在唐纳德·特朗普赢得美国大选后,美国股市曾屡创历史新高,但过去一周美股趋于平稳。最初的“特朗普冲击”效应可能正在减弱,因为市场对企业收益增长的预期(这在一定程度上得益于特朗普放松监管和降低税率的政策),越来越多地反映在市场价格中。然而,抛开美国大选的结果不谈,有一位著名投资组合经理从美国经济,最重要的是,从美国消费者的表现中,看到了利好消息。
高塔顾问公司(Hightower Advisors)首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮·林克上周晚些时候对《财富》杂志表示,美国的GDP增长和通货膨胀等相关经济数据正在朝着正确的方向发展。尽管民意调查显示,在特朗普重返白宫的过程中,民众对经济的不满情绪发挥了重要的推动作用,但有迹象表明,总体情绪正在好转。
林克表示:“消费者信心坚定,这主要是因为人们有工作,至少目前工资增长跑赢了通胀,而且人们仍在消费。”
她补充道,从许多方面来看,大选结果成为积极影响市场的催化剂,因为它们解决了一个未知因素。标普500指数创下了大选日后的最佳表现,在11月第二周上涨超过3.5%。美国银行(Bank of America)的策略师使用EPFR Global的数据称,到11月13日,有560亿美元资金流入美国股市。彭博社引用了这些策略师的报告。
林克指出,美联储(Federal Reserve)降息25个基点,以及中国宣布推出1.4万亿美元支出计划的消息,解决了其他不确定性因素。
林克表示:“我们都在一定程度上松了一口气。”林克管理的股票投资组合价值52亿美元,且她是CNBC的定期撰稿人。
消费数据强劲
尽管许多美国人对物价上涨仍持谨慎态度,但民众的情绪正在好转。在选举日当天,服务业采购经理人指数(PMI)(衡量经济活动的基准指标)达到自2022年7月以来的最高水平。该指数超过50被视为经济扩张的信号;上个月的服务业PMI为56%,较9月份升高了1.1%。
林克表示:“两年半之前,我们刚刚摆脱新冠疫情,所以可以理解为什么当时的服务业如此强劲。今天,消费者依旧渴望获得体验,仍然在消费。”
然而,特朗普的胜选表明,许多美国人对经济状况并非同样乐观。美联社的调查显示,约40%的选民认为经济和就业是美国的首要问题,而这些选民压倒性支持共和党提名人特朗普重返白宫。
林克承认,美国最近一轮通货膨胀达到四十年来的最高水平,这对经济状况较差的美国人打击尤其严重。他们的困境可能并没有在消费数据中显现出来。去年,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的一份报告发现,在2020年至2022年期间,美国收入前20%的人群在消费者支出中的占比接近50%。
林克表示:“我认为有的消费者经济富裕,有的消费者却经济拮据,显然,我对中低收入者感到同情。”
然而,她表示,美国人应该能逐渐感受到经济好转所带来的影响,这对于美国股市而言可能是个利好消息。尽管标普500指数上周下跌了超过2%,但林克目前依旧持乐观态度。
她说道:“在我33年的职业生涯中,押注消费者表现不佳都是错误的决定。”
林克认为,现在似乎还不是开始押注的好时机。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
在唐纳德·特朗普赢得美国大选后,美国股市曾屡创历史新高,但过去一周美股趋于平稳。最初的“特朗普冲击”效应可能正在减弱,因为市场对企业收益增长的预期(这在一定程度上得益于特朗普放松监管和降低税率的政策),越来越多地反映在市场价格中。然而,抛开美国大选的结果不谈,有一位著名投资组合经理从美国经济,最重要的是,从美国消费者的表现中,看到了利好消息。
高塔顾问公司(Hightower Advisors)首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮·林克上周晚些时候对《财富》杂志表示,美国的GDP增长和通货膨胀等相关经济数据正在朝着正确的方向发展。尽管民意调查显示,在特朗普重返白宫的过程中,民众对经济的不满情绪发挥了重要的推动作用,但有迹象表明,总体情绪正在好转。
林克表示:“消费者信心坚定,这主要是因为人们有工作,至少目前工资增长跑赢了通胀,而且人们仍在消费。”
她补充道,从许多方面来看,大选结果成为积极影响市场的催化剂,因为它们解决了一个未知因素。标普500指数创下了大选日后的最佳表现,在11月第二周上涨超过3.5%。美国银行(Bank of America)的策略师使用EPFR Global的数据称,到11月13日,有560亿美元资金流入美国股市。彭博社引用了这些策略师的报告。
林克指出,美联储(Federal Reserve)降息25个基点,以及中国宣布推出1.4万亿美元支出计划的消息,解决了其他不确定性因素。
林克表示:“我们都在一定程度上松了一口气。”林克管理的股票投资组合价值52亿美元,且她是CNBC的定期撰稿人。
消费数据强劲
尽管许多美国人对物价上涨仍持谨慎态度,但民众的情绪正在好转。在选举日当天,服务业采购经理人指数(PMI)(衡量经济活动的基准指标)达到自2022年7月以来的最高水平。该指数超过50被视为经济扩张的信号;上个月的服务业PMI为56%,较9月份升高了1.1%。
林克表示:“两年半之前,我们刚刚摆脱新冠疫情,所以可以理解为什么当时的服务业如此强劲。今天,消费者依旧渴望获得体验,仍然在消费。”
然而,特朗普的胜选表明,许多美国人对经济状况并非同样乐观。美联社的调查显示,约40%的选民认为经济和就业是美国的首要问题,而这些选民压倒性支持共和党提名人特朗普重返白宫。
林克承认,美国最近一轮通货膨胀达到四十年来的最高水平,这对经济状况较差的美国人打击尤其严重。他们的困境可能并没有在消费数据中显现出来。去年,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的一份报告发现,在2020年至2022年期间,美国收入前20%的人群在消费者支出中的占比接近50%。
林克表示:“我认为有的消费者经济富裕,有的消费者却经济拮据,显然,我对中低收入者感到同情。”
然而,她表示,美国人应该能逐渐感受到经济好转所带来的影响,这对于美国股市而言可能是个利好消息。尽管标普500指数上周下跌了超过2%,但林克目前依旧持乐观态度。
她说道:“在我33年的职业生涯中,押注消费者表现不佳都是错误的决定。”
林克认为,现在似乎还不是开始押注的好时机。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Stocks mellowed this past week after jolting to record highs following Donald Trump’s election victory. The initial “Trump bump” may be fading as expectations of juiced corporate earnings—thanks, in part, to deregulation and lower tax rates—become increasingly priced into the market. Election results aside, however, one prominent portfolio manager likes what she sees out of the U.S. economy and, most importantly, American consumers.
Economic data regarding GDP growth and inflation is pointed in the right direction, Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower Advisors, told Fortune late last week. While polls suggest economic discontent played a massive role in propelling Trump’s return to the White House, there are signs general sentiment is improving.
“You have this consumer that just is unwavering,” Link said, “and a lot of that is because they have jobs, they have wage growth that’s higher than inflation—at least today—and they are spending.”
In many ways, the election results proved a positive catalyst for markets simply because they resolved an unknown, she added. The S&P 500 posted its best post-Election Day session ever, with the index gaining over 3.5% during the second week of November. Fifty-six billion dollars flowed into U.S. equities through Nov. 13, according to strategists at Bank of America, using data from EPFR Global, who were cited by Bloomberg.
Link noted that the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point cut to interest rates, along with news of China’s $1.4 trillion spending package, addressed other sources of uncertainty.
“We all were kind of breathing a sigh of relief,” said Link, who manages a $5.2 billion equity portfolio and is a regular CNBC contributor.
Consumer data comes in strong
It appears the mood on Main Street is also improving, even as many Americans remain wary about higher prices. On Election Day, the services purchasing managers’ index, a benchmark measure of economic activity, came in at its highest level since July 2022. A reading above 50 is considered expansionary; last month’s Services PMI, as its commonly called, registered 56%, a 1.1% increase from September.
“Two and a half years ago, we were just coming out of COVID,” Link said, “so you could understand why services would be so strong. Fast forward to today, the consumer still wants experiences. The consumer is still spending.”
Trump’s victory, however, illustrated that many Americans do not share a similarly rosy outlook. Roughly 40% of voters considered the economy and jobs to be the country’s top issue, according to the Associated Press, and those voters overwhelming backed the Republican nominee to return to the Oval Office.
Link acknowledged the country’s recent bout with inflation, which reached four-decade highs, has hit less affluent Americans especially hard. Their struggles may not be apparent in spending data. Last year, a report from Morgan Stanley found the top 20% of U.S. earners accounted for nearly half of all consumer expenditures between 2020 and 2022.
“I think you have the haves and have nots within the consumer, and I’m empathetic, obviously, to the mid-tier and the low-end,” Link said.
However, Americans should increasingly feel the effects of an improving economy, she said, which will presumably be good news for markets. The S&P may have dipped over 2% last week, but Link is still bullish for now.
“In my 33 years, it’s always been wrong to bet against the consumer,” she said.
And now, according to Link, does not appear to be a good time to start.