•洛克菲勒国际(Rockefeller International)董事长鲁奇尔·夏尔马(Ruchir Sharma)警告称,由于美国的优异表现因巨额债务而放大,“泡沫之母”即将破裂。
洛克菲勒国际董事长鲁奇尔·夏尔马指出,美国过度依赖于债务,因此,试图控制债务的努力最终将削弱经济增长和企业利润。
这位市场专家继早些时候发出“泡沫之母”的警告之后,上周又在《金融时报》上发表了另一篇专栏文章,阐述了美国相较于世界其他国家的优异表现背后的泡沫,以及这一泡沫即将如何破裂。
虽然华尔街的多头表明盈利强劲,但夏尔马表示,在对政府支出和少数几家估值极高的科技巨头进行调整后,这一记录就不那么令人瞩目了,并补充说,“超常利润”通常会在竞争中逐渐回归正常水平。
夏尔马最近撰写了《资本主义出了什么问题》(What Went Wrong With Capitalism)一书,他解释说:"在经济周期的这一阶段,有史以来最大规模的赤字支出也人为推动了增长和利润上升。”
事实上,公众持有的债务,即美国在金融市场借贷后对外部债权人形成的负债,已经达到国内生产总值的约100%,预计这一比例很快就会超过二战刚结束时创下的历史纪录。但这一次,经济形势依然保持强劲,因此不太可能出现全球性灾难。
所有这些债务的付息成本也呈爆炸式增长,这反过来也引发了赤字,形成了债务的反馈循环。目前,债务的利息支出已经达到了每年1万亿美元,是最大的预算项目之一,甚至超过了国防开支。
不过,尽管联邦政府债台高筑,但美国家庭和企业的资产负债表依然保持强劲,能够继续为经济增长提供动力。事实上,美国第三季度国内生产总值增长率已从原先的2.8%上调至3.1%,部分原因是消费者支出增加。
夏尔马写道:"但每位英雄都有致命的缺陷。美国的致命缺陷在于对政府债务的依赖急剧攀升。”
根据他的计算,如今增加2美元的新政府债务才能带来1美元的额外国内生产总值增长,这一比例相较于五年前已经上涨了50%。他指出,如果换作是其他面临类似状况的国家,恐怕早已遭受资本外逃的冲击,但美国仍能以世界第一大经济体和储备货币国自居。
如果市场对此感到厌倦,就有可能成为终结这场狂欢的催化剂。夏尔马预测,明年投资者可能会要求提高所有新发行债务的利率,或期待政府展现出一些财政纪律的迹象。这将导致企业努力减少对政府支出的依赖,而这一转变无疑会对经济增长和企业利润造成损害。
已有迹象表明这种情况正在发生:债券巨头太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)表示,由于担心债务飙升,该公司正在减少对美国长期债券的敞口。
他补充道,或者,欧洲或中国等其他主要经济体可能会实现反弹,从而削弱美国相对出色的表现。当然,也有可能发生完全无法预见的事件。
夏尔马表示:“在泡沫的后期阶段,价格通常呈抛物线走势,而在过去6个月里,美国股市涨幅超过其他国家股市涨幅,是至少25年来可比时期内最为显著的。当在如此稀薄的空气中飞行时,哪怕只是遇到一点小问题,都可能导致引擎熄火。所有关于极端价格、估值和情绪的典型迹象都表明,末日即将来临。是时候对‘美国例外论’进行逆向投资了。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
•洛克菲勒国际(Rockefeller International)董事长鲁奇尔·夏尔马(Ruchir Sharma)警告称,由于美国的优异表现因巨额债务而放大,“泡沫之母”即将破裂。
洛克菲勒国际董事长鲁奇尔·夏尔马指出,美国过度依赖于债务,因此,试图控制债务的努力最终将削弱经济增长和企业利润。
这位市场专家继早些时候发出“泡沫之母”的警告之后,上周又在《金融时报》上发表了另一篇专栏文章,阐述了美国相较于世界其他国家的优异表现背后的泡沫,以及这一泡沫即将如何破裂。
虽然华尔街的多头表明盈利强劲,但夏尔马表示,在对政府支出和少数几家估值极高的科技巨头进行调整后,这一记录就不那么令人瞩目了,并补充说,“超常利润”通常会在竞争中逐渐回归正常水平。
夏尔马最近撰写了《资本主义出了什么问题》(What Went Wrong With Capitalism)一书,他解释说:"在经济周期的这一阶段,有史以来最大规模的赤字支出也人为推动了增长和利润上升。”
事实上,公众持有的债务,即美国在金融市场借贷后对外部债权人形成的负债,已经达到国内生产总值的约100%,预计这一比例很快就会超过二战刚结束时创下的历史纪录。但这一次,经济形势依然保持强劲,因此不太可能出现全球性灾难。
所有这些债务的付息成本也呈爆炸式增长,这反过来也引发了赤字,形成了债务的反馈循环。目前,债务的利息支出已经达到了每年1万亿美元,是最大的预算项目之一,甚至超过了国防开支。
不过,尽管联邦政府债台高筑,但美国家庭和企业的资产负债表依然保持强劲,能够继续为经济增长提供动力。事实上,美国第三季度国内生产总值增长率已从原先的2.8%上调至3.1%,部分原因是消费者支出增加。
夏尔马写道:"但每位英雄都有致命的缺陷。美国的致命缺陷在于对政府债务的依赖急剧攀升。”
根据他的计算,如今增加2美元的新政府债务才能带来1美元的额外国内生产总值增长,这一比例相较于五年前已经上涨了50%。他指出,如果换作是其他面临类似状况的国家,恐怕早已遭受资本外逃的冲击,但美国仍能以世界第一大经济体和储备货币国自居。
如果市场对此感到厌倦,就有可能成为终结这场狂欢的催化剂。夏尔马预测,明年投资者可能会要求提高所有新发行债务的利率,或期待政府展现出一些财政纪律的迹象。这将导致企业努力减少对政府支出的依赖,而这一转变无疑会对经济增长和企业利润造成损害。
已有迹象表明这种情况正在发生:债券巨头太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)表示,由于担心债务飙升,该公司正在减少对美国长期债券的敞口。
他补充道,或者,欧洲或中国等其他主要经济体可能会实现反弹,从而削弱美国相对出色的表现。当然,也有可能发生完全无法预见的事件。
夏尔马表示:“在泡沫的后期阶段,价格通常呈抛物线走势,而在过去6个月里,美国股市涨幅超过其他国家股市涨幅,是至少25年来可比时期内最为显著的。当在如此稀薄的空气中飞行时,哪怕只是遇到一点小问题,都可能导致引擎熄火。所有关于极端价格、估值和情绪的典型迹象都表明,末日即将来临。是时候对‘美国例外论’进行逆向投资了。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
• The “mother of all bubbles” is due to pop soon as U.S. outperformance has been inflated by massive amounts of debt, warned Ruchir Sharma, chair of Rockefeller International.
The U.S. has become too addicted to debt, and attempts to rein it in will eventually weaken economic growth and corporate profits, according to Ruchir Sharma, chair of Rockefeller International.
The market expert followed up his earlier “mother of all bubbles” warning with another column in the Financial Times last week that laid out how the bubble of U.S. outperformance versus the rest of the world will pop.
While Wall Street bulls point to strong earnings, Sharma said the record is less impressive after adjusting for government spending and the handful of tech giants with massive valuations, adding that “supernormal profits” tend to return to normal amid competition.
“Growth and profits are also getting an artificial lift from the heaviest deficit spending ever recorded at this stage of an economic cycle, by far,” Sharma, who authored the recent book What Went Wrong With Capitalism, explained.
Indeed, debt held by the public, or the amount the U.S. owes to outside lenders after borrowing on financial markets, is already at about 100% of GDP, with that ratio soon expected to blow past the all-time record set in the immediate aftermath of World War II. But this time, it will take place without a global catastrophe while the economy remains robust.
The cost of servicing all that debt has also exploded and is contributing to deficits as well, creating a feedback loop on the debt. Interest expenses for the debt are now $1 trillion a year and are among the biggest budget items, even exceeding defense spending.
Still, while the federal government is awash in red ink, U.S. households and companies maintain strong balance sheets that can continue fueling the economy. In fact, third-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.1% from an earlier reading of 2.8%, due in part to more consumer spending.
“But every hero has a fatal flaw,” Sharma wrote. “America’s is its sharply increasing addiction to government debt.”
According to his calculations, $2 of new government debt is required to generate an additional $1 of GDP growth, up 50% from five years ago. Any other country with similar dynamics would be suffering from capital flight by now, but the U.S. can still boast the world’s top economy and reserve currency, he said.
One catalyst that could bring an end to the party is if markets get fed up. Sharma predicted that next year investors will likely demand higher interest rates on all the fresh debt being issued or some sign of fiscal discipline. That will lead to efforts to reduce dependence on government spending, which will hurt growth and profits.
There are already signs of that happening as bond giant Pimco said it is reducing its exposure to long-term U.S. bonds amid concern about soaring debt.
Or, other top economies, like in Europe or China, could rebound and erode America’s relative outperformance, he added. There could also be totally unforeseen events.
“In the late stages of a bubble, prices typically go parabolic, and over the past six months US stock prices have outgained others by the widest margin for any comparable period in at least a quarter century,” Sharma said. “When flying in such thin air, it doesn’t take much to stall the engines. All the classic signs of extreme prices, valuations and sentiment suggest the end is near. It’s time to bet against ‘American exceptionalism.'”