
• 沃伦·巴菲特警告称,关税的尽头一定是通胀,最终买单的是消费者和外国企业。特朗普政府宣称关税不会影响美国人,但飞升的物价和对经济的担心情绪已显示情况并非如此,就连联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)都承认关税会造成通胀。
伯克希尔-哈撒韦首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特向来远离政治纷争,但面临特朗普政府加征关税,他还是开口评论了。
巴菲特通常不会透露对经济前景的看法,而他这一表态给那些认为进口关税只会影响海外企业不会影响自己钱包的消费者敲响了一记警钟。
“关税方面,其实有过很多经验。某种程度上来说,关税是一种战争行为,”上周日巴菲特接受哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS)采访时表示。
巴菲特评论的是关税总体情况,并未针对特朗普提出的具体政策。他补充说,到最后直面通胀的还是消费者。
“从长远来看,关税就是对商品征收的税。天上可不会掉馅饼,”身价1610亿美元的巴菲特继续说道,“然后呢?在经济领域总要问到这个问题。总得想一想:‘接下来会怎样?’”
巴菲特补充道,“接下来”价格不会下跌:“10年后,20年后,价格只会更高。”
不过在经济领域,这位奥马哈先知非常清楚自己对市场的影响力。
“我认为这是全世界最有趣的话题,但我不会谈论,也不能谈论。确实不能说,”巴菲特补充说。
特朗普重返白宫后,从60年代中期就掌控伯克希尔哈撒韦的巴菲特对政府行为也少有评论。
“政府还是政府,”被问及当前政治格局时,巴菲特回应称,“政治的问题在于,推进的过程中往往不得不做出小妥协。”
巴菲特补充说,跟政府效率部负责人埃隆·马斯克“交流过几次”,但并未说明交流内容跟马斯克作为特殊政府雇员,或作为特斯拉和SpaceX首席执行官的工作是否有关。
关税意味着通胀?
至于关税将导致通胀,消费者越来越无法忽视。如今人们已在高物价和美联储高利率下苦苦支撑,这一前景实在不容乐观。
早在1月,特朗普政府的政策意图尚未完全明确之际,杰罗姆·鲍威尔领导的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)就已担心关税对通胀的影响。
今年联邦公开市场委员会第一场会议记录显示:“多个地区的商业人士表示,企业会因潜在关税将增加的生产成本转嫁给消费者。”
特朗普内阁关键人物宣称的观点相反。例如,财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示,对中国的关税将由对方国家“买单”,不会转嫁给美国消费者。
不过,随着加拿大和墨西哥很快也要面临关税,贝森特所谓的“依赖路径”结果可能就是价格上涨。
鸡蛋价格飙升至历史新高,消费者价格指数(CPI)数据比预期更热,即便特朗普也不得不承认通胀回归,然后将责任推给拜登政府。(财富中文网)
译者:梁宇
审校:夏林
• 沃伦·巴菲特警告称,关税的尽头一定是通胀,最终买单的是消费者和外国企业。特朗普政府宣称关税不会影响美国人,但飞升的物价和对经济的担心情绪已显示情况并非如此,就连联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)都承认关税会造成通胀。
伯克希尔-哈撒韦首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特向来远离政治纷争,但面临特朗普政府加征关税,他还是开口评论了。
巴菲特通常不会透露对经济前景的看法,而他这一表态给那些认为进口关税只会影响海外企业不会影响自己钱包的消费者敲响了一记警钟。
“关税方面,其实有过很多经验。某种程度上来说,关税是一种战争行为,”上周日巴菲特接受哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS)采访时表示。
巴菲特评论的是关税总体情况,并未针对特朗普提出的具体政策。他补充说,到最后直面通胀的还是消费者。
“从长远来看,关税就是对商品征收的税。天上可不会掉馅饼,”身价1610亿美元的巴菲特继续说道,“然后呢?在经济领域总要问到这个问题。总得想一想:‘接下来会怎样?’”
巴菲特补充道,“接下来”价格不会下跌:“10年后,20年后,价格只会更高。”
不过在经济领域,这位奥马哈先知非常清楚自己对市场的影响力。
“我认为这是全世界最有趣的话题,但我不会谈论,也不能谈论。确实不能说,”巴菲特补充说。
特朗普重返白宫后,从60年代中期就掌控伯克希尔哈撒韦的巴菲特对政府行为也少有评论。
“政府还是政府,”被问及当前政治格局时,巴菲特回应称,“政治的问题在于,推进的过程中往往不得不做出小妥协。”
巴菲特补充说,跟政府效率部负责人埃隆·马斯克“交流过几次”,但并未说明交流内容跟马斯克作为特殊政府雇员,或作为特斯拉和SpaceX首席执行官的工作是否有关。
关税意味着通胀?
至于关税将导致通胀,消费者越来越无法忽视。如今人们已在高物价和美联储高利率下苦苦支撑,这一前景实在不容乐观。
早在1月,特朗普政府的政策意图尚未完全明确之际,杰罗姆·鲍威尔领导的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)就已担心关税对通胀的影响。
今年联邦公开市场委员会第一场会议记录显示:“多个地区的商业人士表示,企业会因潜在关税将增加的生产成本转嫁给消费者。”
特朗普内阁关键人物宣称的观点相反。例如,财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示,对中国的关税将由对方国家“买单”,不会转嫁给美国消费者。
不过,随着加拿大和墨西哥很快也要面临关税,贝森特所谓的“依赖路径”结果可能就是价格上涨。
鸡蛋价格飙升至历史新高,消费者价格指数(CPI)数据比预期更热,即便特朗普也不得不承认通胀回归,然后将责任推给拜登政府。(财富中文网)
译者:梁宇
审校:夏林
• Warren Buffett warned that tariffs ultimately lead to inflation, emphasizing that consumers as well as foreign businesses bear the cost. While the Trump administration claims tariffs won’t impact Americans, rising prices and economic concerns suggest otherwise, with even the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) acknowledging their inflationary effects.
While Warren Buffett notably stays out of the political melee, the Berkshire Hathaway CEO has passed comment on tariff hikes—a policy being pursued by the current Trump administration.
Buffett, who generally refrains from sharing specifics on his economic outlook, issued something of a wake-up call to consumers who might consider the import tariffs impacting overseas businesses rather than their own purse strings.
“Tariffs are actually—we’ve had a lot of experience with them. They’re an act of war, to some degree,” Buffett told CBS in an interview released Sunday.
Speaking on tariffs generally, as opposed to the specific policies outlined by Trump, Buffett added that, ultimately, consumers will face inflation.
“Over time, they are a tax on goods. I mean, the tooth fairy doesn’t pay ‘em,” the man worth $161 billion per the Bloomberg Billionaires Index continued. “And then what? You always have to ask that question in economics. You always say: ‘And then what?’”
The “what” does not entail prices coming down, Buffett added: “Prices will be higher 10 years from now, in 20 years from now.”
On the question of economics, however, the Oracle of Omaha is all too aware of the influence he has over markets.
“Well, I think that’s the most interesting subject in the world, but I won’t talk, I can’t talk about it, though. I really can’t,” Buffett added.
The man who took control of Berkshire in the mid-’60s was also restrained in commentary about the White House’s actions since President Trump returned to the Oval Office.
“Washington is Washington,” Buffett responded when asked about the current political landscape. “The problem with politics is that you tend to have to make tiny compromises as you go along.”
He added he had talked to Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) boss Elon Musk “a couple of times” though didn’t specify if it was in relation to his work as a special government employee or as CEO of companies like Tesla and SpaceX.
Do tariffs mean inflation?
That tariffs will lead to inflation is a potential outcome consumers are increasingly being forced to wake up to—an unattractive prospect given the resilience they had to maintain in the midst of high prices and high Fed interest rates to bring inflation down.
As early as January, before the fuller extent of the Trump administration’s policy intentions became clearer, the Jerome Powell–led Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was concerned by the inflationary impact of tariffs.
Notes from the first FOMC meeting of the year read: “Business contacts in a number of districts had indicated that firms would attempt to pass on to consumers higher input costs arising from potential tariffs.”
Key figures in the Trump cabinet are already claiming the opposite. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said tariffs on China, for example, would be “eaten” by the nation instead of passed back to U.S. consumers.
But with tariffs soon to be expected for Canada and Mexico as well, the “path dependent” outcome—as Bessent calls it—could be higher prices.
With egg prices soaring to record highs and consumer price index (CPI) data coming in hotter than expected, even the man in the Oval Office has had to admit that inflation is back—but he did blame the Biden administration.