• 2017年,沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)针对股市下跌给出了“保持头脑清醒”的睿智建议。这句话出自鲁德亚德·吉卜林(Rudyard Kipling)1895年创作的诗歌《如果》。部分投资者警告称,美国经济正逐步走向回调,而巴菲特曾表示,“无人能预知”这些重大市场波动的确切时机。
本周,美国股市抛售潮延续,投资者对唐纳德·特朗普总统提出的关税及其他政策会给经济带来何种程度的影响心存疑虑。部分投资者甚至担忧特朗普的举措是否会导致经济陷入衰退。
即便在上周日接受福克斯新闻采访,当被问及美国是否正步入衰退,特朗普也坦诚地表示,经济正处于“转型期”。
特朗普对玛利亚·巴蒂罗姆(Maria Bartiromo)说:“我不想对此进行预测,当前我们正处于转型期,这需要一点时间。”
与此同时,标准普尔500指数(追踪证交所上市的500家最大公司业绩)自本周初以来下跌了约2%,较2月19日的峰值下跌了近9%。就连高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)首席经济学家本周也下调了对美国整体经济的预期。
然而,历史上最受尊崇、最具传奇色彩的投资者之一,巴菲特在市场动荡之际给出了一些明智的建议。
沃伦·巴菲特在2017年致股东的信中写道:“股票的短期跌幅是无法准确预估的。”即便股市大幅下跌,他也建议从鲁德亚德·吉卜林创作于1895年的诗歌《如果》中寻求慰藉。
“如果周遭众人皆失去理智,你仍能保持头脑清醒……如果你能静待时机而不因此疲倦……如果你能思考——而不以思考为目的……如果所有人都怀疑你,你仍能坚信自己……那么,这整个世界及其万物,皆将属于你。”
巴菲特的核心观点是“保持头脑清醒”,即在市场波动时保持冷静。在信中,他指的是股市大幅下跌的情况,比如在2007—2009年期间,标准普尔500指数下跌了50%。尽管当前股市尚未遭遇如此幅度的下跌,但芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(华尔街的“恐惧指标”)自特朗普上任以来已飙升逾80%。
股市大幅抛售多久发生一次?
虽然股市暴跌发生时会让人感觉像是一阵狂潮,但这种情况其实时有发生。据股票市场研究公司The Motley Fool的数据,股市回调(即指从最近收盘高点下跌10%或以上)大约每隔1.8年就会发生一次。根据Covenant Wealth Advisors的数据,自二战以来,股市已经经历了24次回调。
当前市场已非常接近回调,较2月峰值下跌了约9%。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)经济学家吉姆·里德(Jim Reid)警告称,美国经济已于周一进入“回调区间”。
尽管本周初市场最终避免了回调,但里德在给《财富》杂志埃莉诺·普林格尔(Eleanor Pringle)的一份说明中写道:“近期的下跌仍意味着标准普尔500指数触及六个月来的低点,这是自2022年10月以来我们首次能这么说。”
投资公司LPL Investments的首席技术策略师亚当·特恩奎斯特(Adam Turnquist)实际上曾在1月23日的一篇文章中警告称,股市或面临回调风险,而当时市场尚处于特朗普效应带来的上涨态势中。
特恩奎斯特写道:“距上一次市场正式步入回调已历时309个交易日,这一时长远超1928年以来平均173个交易日无回调的周期。”尽管当时股市接近历史高位,“谈论潜在的回调似乎为时过早,但牛市进程并非是线性的,回调虽然相对不太可能发生,但始终存在可能性。”
巴菲特在2017年致股东的信中就对股市波动性发出过类似警告。
巴菲特在2017年写道:“无人能预知(回调)的确切时机。行情随时可能从绿灯直接跳转至红灯,而不会在黄灯处停留。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
• 2017年,沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)针对股市下跌给出了“保持头脑清醒”的睿智建议。这句话出自鲁德亚德·吉卜林(Rudyard Kipling)1895年创作的诗歌《如果》。部分投资者警告称,美国经济正逐步走向回调,而巴菲特曾表示,“无人能预知”这些重大市场波动的确切时机。
本周,美国股市抛售潮延续,投资者对唐纳德·特朗普总统提出的关税及其他政策会给经济带来何种程度的影响心存疑虑。部分投资者甚至担忧特朗普的举措是否会导致经济陷入衰退。
即便在上周日接受福克斯新闻采访,当被问及美国是否正步入衰退,特朗普也坦诚地表示,经济正处于“转型期”。
特朗普对玛利亚·巴蒂罗姆(Maria Bartiromo)说:“我不想对此进行预测,当前我们正处于转型期,这需要一点时间。”
与此同时,标准普尔500指数(追踪证交所上市的500家最大公司业绩)自本周初以来下跌了约2%,较2月19日的峰值下跌了近9%。就连高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)首席经济学家本周也下调了对美国整体经济的预期。
然而,历史上最受尊崇、最具传奇色彩的投资者之一,巴菲特在市场动荡之际给出了一些明智的建议。
沃伦·巴菲特在2017年致股东的信中写道:“股票的短期跌幅是无法准确预估的。”即便股市大幅下跌,他也建议从鲁德亚德·吉卜林创作于1895年的诗歌《如果》中寻求慰藉。
“如果周遭众人皆失去理智,你仍能保持头脑清醒……如果你能静待时机而不因此疲倦……如果你能思考——而不以思考为目的……如果所有人都怀疑你,你仍能坚信自己……那么,这整个世界及其万物,皆将属于你。”
巴菲特的核心观点是“保持头脑清醒”,即在市场波动时保持冷静。在信中,他指的是股市大幅下跌的情况,比如在2007—2009年期间,标准普尔500指数下跌了50%。尽管当前股市尚未遭遇如此幅度的下跌,但芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(华尔街的“恐惧指标”)自特朗普上任以来已飙升逾80%。
股市大幅抛售多久发生一次?
虽然股市暴跌发生时会让人感觉像是一阵狂潮,但这种情况其实时有发生。据股票市场研究公司The Motley Fool的数据,股市回调(即指从最近收盘高点下跌10%或以上)大约每隔1.8年就会发生一次。根据Covenant Wealth Advisors的数据,自二战以来,股市已经经历了24次回调。
当前市场已非常接近回调,较2月峰值下跌了约9%。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)经济学家吉姆·里德(Jim Reid)警告称,美国经济已于周一进入“回调区间”。
尽管本周初市场最终避免了回调,但里德在给《财富》杂志埃莉诺·普林格尔(Eleanor Pringle)的一份说明中写道:“近期的下跌仍意味着标准普尔500指数触及六个月来的低点,这是自2022年10月以来我们首次能这么说。”
投资公司LPL Investments的首席技术策略师亚当·特恩奎斯特(Adam Turnquist)实际上曾在1月23日的一篇文章中警告称,股市或面临回调风险,而当时市场尚处于特朗普效应带来的上涨态势中。
特恩奎斯特写道:“距上一次市场正式步入回调已历时309个交易日,这一时长远超1928年以来平均173个交易日无回调的周期。”尽管当时股市接近历史高位,“谈论潜在的回调似乎为时过早,但牛市进程并非是线性的,回调虽然相对不太可能发生,但始终存在可能性。”
巴菲特在2017年致股东的信中就对股市波动性发出过类似警告。
巴菲特在2017年写道:“无人能预知(回调)的确切时机。行情随时可能从绿灯直接跳转至红灯,而不会在黄灯处停留。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
• Warren Buffett in 2017 offered sage advice for when the stock market is falling: “Keep your head.” It comes from Rudyard Kipling’s 1895 poem “If.” Some investors have warned the U.S. economy is inching toward a correction, and Buffett had said “no one can tell you” when these major market moves may happen.
The U.S. stock selloff continues this week as investors question how much President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs and other policies could impact the economy. Some investors have even questioned whether Trump’s moves could spiral the economy into a recession.
Even Trump admitted in an interview with Fox News on Sunday the economy was in a “period of transition” when asked if the U.S. was headed toward a recession.
“I hate to predict things like that, there is a period of transition,” Trump told Maria Bartiromo. “It takes a little time.”
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index, which tracks the performance of the 500 largest companies listed on the stock exchange, is down about 2% since the start of the week and almost 9% from its Feb. 19 peak. Even Goldman Sachs’ chief economist downgraded the entire U.S. economy this week.
But one of the most revered and storied investors in history has some sage advice for when markets are amiss.
“There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period,” Warren Buffett wrote in a 2017 letter to shareholders. But even when major stock drops happen, he suggested finding solace in Rudyard Kipling’s 1895 poem “If.”
“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs… If you can wait and not be tired by waiting… If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim… If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you… Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.”
Buffett’s main point was to “keep your head,” or maintaining composure while markets move. In his letter, he was referring to major stock market declines, like during 2007–2009 when the S&P lost 50% of its value. Currently, the stock market isn’t close to such a severe decline, but the CBOE Volatility Index, which serves as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” has spiked more than 80% since Trump took office.
How often do major stock selloffs happen?
While it can feel like a frenzy when it happens, stock market selloffs happen somewhat frequently. A market correction—defined as a decline of 10% or more from the most recent closing high—happens about every 1.8 years, according to stock market research company The Motley Fool. Since World War II, there have been 24 stock market corrections, data from Covenant Wealth Advisors shows.
The current market is dangerously close to a correction, with markets dropping about 9% from a peak in February. Deutsche Bank economist Jim Reid has warned the U.S. economy entered “correction territory” on Monday.
While the market ultimately avoided a correction earlier this week, “the latest declines still meant the S&P 500 hit a six-month low, which is the first time we’ve been able to say that since October 2022,” Reid wrote in a note viewed by Fortune’s Eleanor Pringle.
Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist with investment firm LPL Investments, had actually warned in a Jan. 23 post a correction could be coming. At the time, markets were still rallying from a Trump bump.
“The last time the market entered an official correction was 309 trading days ago, spanning well beyond the average number of 173 trading days without a correction since 1928,” Turnquist wrote. Although the stock market was nearing record-high levels at the time and it seemed “premature to talk about a potential correction, bull markets are not linear, and corrections, though relatively improbable, are always possible.”
Buffett had issued a similar warning in his 2017 shareholder letter about the volatility of the stock market.
“No one can tell you when [corrections] will happen,” Buffett wrote in 2017. “The light can at any time go from green to red without pausing at yellow.”