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加密货币交易者发现特朗普时代并非天堂

彭博社
2025-03-16

数字资产近期表现糟糕,部分原因是对特朗普的行业政策不及预期。

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2025年1月31日,在萨尔瓦多圣萨尔瓦多举办的B计划论坛上,一名与会者戴着比特币图案的帽子。图片来源:Camilo Freedman—Bloomberg via Getty Images

数月来,热爱加密货币的投资者砸下数十亿美元买入杠杆策略,原以为美国新任总统特朗普会解除对新兴行业的监管,开创数字繁荣的新世界。

如今,特朗普政策议程频频引发波动导致市场担心情绪渐浓,押注加密货币的短线交易员受到华尔街大规模抛售的冲击。数字资产的表现尤其糟糕,部分原因是对特朗普的行业政策不及预期。

看看主打虚拟货币或加密货币相关主题追求高收益的交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)就能知道。周一跌幅最大的是两只与Strategy公司挂钩的ETF,跌幅均超过30%。“策略”公司持有比特币,原名“微策略”(MicroStrategy)。

另一只目标是Robinhood Markets Inc.每日收益翻倍的基金跌幅达40%,Robinhood Markets Inc.是加密货币交易员青睐的一家经纪商。加杠杆比特币基金损失了约20%,主投以太坊(Ether)的基金也下跌了26%,数字代币市场抛售潮可见一斑。

支撑杠杆基金的资产和公司可以被视为加密货币交易的核心,在特朗普重返白宫后曾得到极大推动。特朗普表示支持数字资产行业,承诺建立以代币为主的战略储备,还推出“特朗普币”点燃市场的投机热情。大选之后,比特币和其他加密货币价格都大幅飙升。

不过,业内人士对特朗普政府在加密货币方面的行动越发不安。最近,特朗普宣布将XRP、SOL和ADA等不太知名的代币纳入战略加密货币储备,引发了不满。上周五在白宫举办的加密货币峰会被批评是“教科书式的公关秀——光有噱头,没多少干货,”金融媒体Blockworks的多诺万・乔伊和麦考利・彼得森写道,“行业还是在观望。”

另一方面,特朗普的贸易政策时而强硬时而软化,埃隆·马斯克又在联邦政府大搞裁员,投资者发现经济衰退的信号越来越多而心神不宁,ETF也损失惨重。标普500指数已回吐大选以来的涨幅,带有“特朗普交易”概念的投机股票下跌得更快。

越来越多经济学家敲响经济衰退的警钟。月初摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的模型显示,市场预测的经济衰退概率已升到了31%;高盛(Goldman Sachs)模型也显示,经济衰退的风险逐步增加。这样的环境下,“人们肯定不想持有太多杠杆ETF之类高风险资产,”Strategas高级ETF策略师托德·索恩说。

特朗普曾表示,当前的市场动荡可能是必要的“过渡”阶段,随后新政策对经济的影响就会体现。这么说来,投机性股票“被大幅抛售”可以理解,JonesTrading首席市场策略师迈克尔・奥罗克表示。

“就是杠杆下注,而且是在股市投机性最强的领域赌博,”他说,“涨幅那么凶猛就已经说明,崩溃起来一样快,甚至更快。”

今年到目前为止,曾被称为“微策略”公司旗下两只杠杆基金下跌了约45%。杠杆基金GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF(交易代码 CONL)目标是实现加密货币交易所 Coinbase每天收益两倍,2024年底以来基金下跌超过55%。还有交易代码为BITX的两倍杠杆比特币基金,亏损了35%,因为比特币价格下跌了16%。

周二上午,在新加坡市场比特币跌至76606美元的四个月来低点,随后跌幅有所收窄。

根据彭博整理的数据,规模500亿美元的iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF(代码IBIT)在12月初出现成立以来最大的单周资金流入,流入资金超过26亿美元。然而,2月便出现该基金首次也是最大规模资金流出,流出资金近8亿美元。3月又有1.3亿美元资金撤出。

同样表现不佳的还有高风险科技ETF以及马斯克相关基金。由于马斯克与白宫关系密切,相关基金曾被散户视为稳赚不赔。举例来说,随特斯拉股价剧烈波动的Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares(交易代码:TSLL),今年已下跌超过70%。此外,仅在周一一天追求Palantir Technologies Inc.两倍回报率的基金就损失了约20%。

或许只有凯瑟琳·伍德旗下的ARK Innovation ETF(交易代码:ARKK)最能体现“加密货币和马斯克概念”的投资理念,毕竟凯瑟琳·伍德对创新技术的偏爱众所周知。今年到目前为止,该基金跌去16%,而且投资者撤资约2.4亿美元。此前,该基金连续两年出现资金净流出,总计近40亿美元。ARKK前几大持仓包括马斯克的特斯拉,还有Coinbase、Robinhood和Palantir的股票。

“加密货币具有很强的长期增长潜力,尤其当前美国政府又支持加密货币。但问题在于,加密货币仍然是高风险资产,其价格很大程度上基于市场情绪而非理性分析,”多伦多证券交易所VettaFi行业研究主管罗克珊娜·伊斯兰表示,“整个市场存在诸多担忧的情况下,很难对加密货币保持信心。” (财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

数月来,热爱加密货币的投资者砸下数十亿美元买入杠杆策略,原以为美国新任总统特朗普会解除对新兴行业的监管,开创数字繁荣的新世界。

如今,特朗普政策议程频频引发波动导致市场担心情绪渐浓,押注加密货币的短线交易员受到华尔街大规模抛售的冲击。数字资产的表现尤其糟糕,部分原因是对特朗普的行业政策不及预期。

看看主打虚拟货币或加密货币相关主题追求高收益的交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)就能知道。周一跌幅最大的是两只与Strategy公司挂钩的ETF,跌幅均超过30%。“策略”公司持有比特币,原名“微策略”(MicroStrategy)。

另一只目标是Robinhood Markets Inc.每日收益翻倍的基金跌幅达40%,Robinhood Markets Inc.是加密货币交易员青睐的一家经纪商。加杠杆比特币基金损失了约20%,主投以太坊(Ether)的基金也下跌了26%,数字代币市场抛售潮可见一斑。

支撑杠杆基金的资产和公司可以被视为加密货币交易的核心,在特朗普重返白宫后曾得到极大推动。特朗普表示支持数字资产行业,承诺建立以代币为主的战略储备,还推出“特朗普币”点燃市场的投机热情。大选之后,比特币和其他加密货币价格都大幅飙升。

不过,业内人士对特朗普政府在加密货币方面的行动越发不安。最近,特朗普宣布将XRP、SOL和ADA等不太知名的代币纳入战略加密货币储备,引发了不满。上周五在白宫举办的加密货币峰会被批评是“教科书式的公关秀——光有噱头,没多少干货,”金融媒体Blockworks的多诺万・乔伊和麦考利・彼得森写道,“行业还是在观望。”

另一方面,特朗普的贸易政策时而强硬时而软化,埃隆·马斯克又在联邦政府大搞裁员,投资者发现经济衰退的信号越来越多而心神不宁,ETF也损失惨重。标普500指数已回吐大选以来的涨幅,带有“特朗普交易”概念的投机股票下跌得更快。

越来越多经济学家敲响经济衰退的警钟。月初摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的模型显示,市场预测的经济衰退概率已升到了31%;高盛(Goldman Sachs)模型也显示,经济衰退的风险逐步增加。这样的环境下,“人们肯定不想持有太多杠杆ETF之类高风险资产,”Strategas高级ETF策略师托德·索恩说。

特朗普曾表示,当前的市场动荡可能是必要的“过渡”阶段,随后新政策对经济的影响就会体现。这么说来,投机性股票“被大幅抛售”可以理解,JonesTrading首席市场策略师迈克尔・奥罗克表示。

“就是杠杆下注,而且是在股市投机性最强的领域赌博,”他说,“涨幅那么凶猛就已经说明,崩溃起来一样快,甚至更快。”

今年到目前为止,曾被称为“微策略”公司旗下两只杠杆基金下跌了约45%。杠杆基金GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF(交易代码 CONL)目标是实现加密货币交易所 Coinbase每天收益两倍,2024年底以来基金下跌超过55%。还有交易代码为BITX的两倍杠杆比特币基金,亏损了35%,因为比特币价格下跌了16%。

周二上午,在新加坡市场比特币跌至76606美元的四个月来低点,随后跌幅有所收窄。

根据彭博整理的数据,规模500亿美元的iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF(代码IBIT)在12月初出现成立以来最大的单周资金流入,流入资金超过26亿美元。然而,2月便出现该基金首次也是最大规模资金流出,流出资金近8亿美元。3月又有1.3亿美元资金撤出。

同样表现不佳的还有高风险科技ETF以及马斯克相关基金。由于马斯克与白宫关系密切,相关基金曾被散户视为稳赚不赔。举例来说,随特斯拉股价剧烈波动的Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares(交易代码:TSLL),今年已下跌超过70%。此外,仅在周一一天追求Palantir Technologies Inc.两倍回报率的基金就损失了约20%。

或许只有凯瑟琳·伍德旗下的ARK Innovation ETF(交易代码:ARKK)最能体现“加密货币和马斯克概念”的投资理念,毕竟凯瑟琳·伍德对创新技术的偏爱众所周知。今年到目前为止,该基金跌去16%,而且投资者撤资约2.4亿美元。此前,该基金连续两年出现资金净流出,总计近40亿美元。ARKK前几大持仓包括马斯克的特斯拉,还有Coinbase、Robinhood和Palantir的股票。

“加密货币具有很强的长期增长潜力,尤其当前美国政府又支持加密货币。但问题在于,加密货币仍然是高风险资产,其价格很大程度上基于市场情绪而非理性分析,”多伦多证券交易所VettaFi行业研究主管罗克珊娜·伊斯兰表示,“整个市场存在诸多担忧的情况下,很难对加密货币保持信心。” (财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

For months, crypto-loving investors sank billions into leveraged strategies with the hope that Donald Trump would eliminate regulations on their upstart industry and usher in a new world of digital prosperity.

Now, day traders who bet on cryptocurrencies are bearing the the brunt of a sweeping Wall Street selloff — one driven by fears about Trump’s volatility-inducing policy agenda. Digital assets have been faring particularly poorly, in part due to disappointment that Trump’s industry policies are not living up to expectations.

Just look at a cohort of exchange-traded funds that seek to offer juiced-up returns on various virtual currencies or crypto-linked themes. Among the biggest losers on Monday were two ETFs that offer leveraged bets on Strategy — the Bitcoin-holding company formerly known as MicroStrategy — both of which were down more than 30% for the day.

Another fund that doubles the daily returns of Robinhood Markets Inc. — a favorite brokerage of crypto traders — dropped 40%. Leveraged-up Bitcoin funds lost roughly 20% and those focused on Ether declined 26% amid a wider selloff in the digital-tokens market.

The assets and companies underpinning the leveraged funds can be seen as forming the crux of a crypto-trading complex that had been turbocharged in the wake of Trump’s return to the White House. The president has embraced the digital-asset industry, promising a strategic reserve filled with tokens and kindling speculative spirits with the launch of his own memecoin. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies soared after the election.

Now, though, industry insiders are growing concerned about the Trump administration’s actions thus far on cryptocurrencies. Recent news of a strategic cryptoreserve was met with dismay after the president said lesser-known tokens XRP, SOL and ADA would be included. Then a White House crypto summit last Friday “turned out to be a textbook PR exercise — big on optics, light on substance,” wrote Donovan Choy and Macauley Peterson at Blockworks. “We’re still very much in wait-and-see mode.”

The ETFs are also suffering steep losses as investors — startled by Trump’s on-again-off-again trade threats, and Elon Musk’s culling of the federal workforce — are tallying up the growing list of recessionary signals. The S&P 500 has shed all the gains since the election, and speculative names that were part of the “Trump trade” are going down even faster.

A growing number of economists are ringing the alarm bells about a potential recession. At the start of the month, a model from JPMorgan Chase & Co. showed that the market-implied probability of an economic downturn had climbed to 31%, while a similar model from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. also suggested that the risk of a recession is edging up. In such an environment, “you are not going to want too much exposure to high-beta names such as these” leveraged ETFs, said Todd Sohn, senior ETF strategist at Strategas.

The president has himself suggested that the current market turbulence may be part of a necessary “transition” period as his new policies work their way through the economy. In that context, it’s understandable that speculative names are “being aggressively unwound,” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading.

“These are levered wagers, literal gambling on the most speculative aspects of the equity market,” he said. “The way they rose sharply should have indicated they can collapse just as quickly, if not even faster.”

The two leveraged funds based on the company formerly known as MicroStrategy are down about 45% so far this year. The GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF (ticker CONL), which seeks to offer 200% of the daily performance of Coinbase Global Inc., the crypto exchange, has declined more than 55% since the end of 2024. And a double levered Bitcoin fund, which trades under the ticker BITX, has lost 35% as the token itself has dropped 16%.

Bitcoin sank to a four-month low of $76,606 on Tuesday morning in Singapore before paring losses.

The $50 billion iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) saw its largest weekly inflow at the start of December, when more than $2.6 billion came in, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. February, on the other hand, marked the fund’s first and biggest month of outflows with nearly $800 million coming out. Another $130 million has been yanked so far in March.

Also cratering: High-octane tech ETFs and funds linked to Musk — once seen as slam-dunk trades among the retail crowd given the tech billionaire’s proximity to the White House. The Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares (TSLL), which rides Tesla’s famous volatility, is down more than 70% this year amid a drubbing for shares of the EV maker. And funds looking to give twice the returns of Palantir Technologies Inc. sported losses of around 20% on Monday alone.

Perhaps no other fund encompasses the idea of the crypto-and-Musk-complex as well as Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), given her proclaimed fondness for innovative technologies. The fund has lost 16% year to date. And investors have pulled about $240 million from it, which comes after two straight years of outflows totaling almost $4 billion. ARKK’s top holdings include Musk’s Tesla, as well as shares of Coinbase, Robinhood and Palantir.

“There are plenty of long-term growth drivers for crypto especially with the pro-crypto administration. But the issue is that crypto is still a high-risk asset where much of its pricing is built on sentiment rather than rationality,” said Roxanna Islam, head of sector and industry research at TMX VettaFi. “And it’s hard to have faith in crypto when there are so many concerns across the broader market.”

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