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美国人对经济的态度是12年来最为悲观的

美国消费者信心指数连续第四个月下降

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由于美国人对自身财务前景的焦虑降至12年来的最低点,加之对关税和通胀的担忧加剧,美国消费者信心指数连续第四个月下降。图片来源:Scott Olson/Getty Images

由于美国人对自身财务前景的焦虑降至12年来的最低点,加之对关税和通胀的担忧加剧,美国消费者信心指数连续第四个月下降。

世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)周二发布报告称,3月份消费者信心指数下降7.2点,降至92.9。据数据公司慧甚(FactSet)的一项调查显示,分析师此前预计该指数将降至94.5。

世界大型企业联合会周二的报告指出,衡量美国人对收入、商业及就业市场短期预期的指数下降了9.6点,降至65.2。

这一数值为12年来的最低水平,且远低于80的临界值。世界大型企业联合会表示,该阈值低于80预示着近期可能出现经济衰退。不过,该机构报告称,预计明年经济将陷入衰退的消费者比例维持在九个月来的高位。

世界大型企业联合会的高级经济学家斯蒂芬妮·吉查德(Stephanie Guichard)表示:“过去几个月里,消费者对未来收入还保持着相当高涨的乐观情绪,但如今这种情绪已基本消失,这表明对经济和劳动力市场的担忧已开始蔓延到消费者对自身状况的评估中。”

该机构的调查显示,消费者在房屋与汽车方面的购买计划呈现出下降趋势。然而,鉴于受访者对未来感到焦虑,令人颇为意外的是,消费者购买家电等大件商品的意向却有所上升。该机构表示,这可能反映出消费者希望在特朗普的关税政策生效导致价格上涨之前完成采购。

尽管通胀率已从疫情后反弹时期的高位回落,但仍高于美联储2%的目标。持续高企的物价,再加上唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布对许多进口商品加征关税,使得在经济忧虑加剧的背景下,美国民众对消费持谨慎态度。

在2024年底,消费者信心似乎逐渐增强,节假日消费也较为慷慨。然而,美国1月份的零售销售额大幅下降,部分归因于严寒天气的影响。

本月早些时候,政府报告称,在1月份大幅削减开支后,美国人在2月份适度增加了支出。

世界大型企业联合会周二报告称,消费者对当前经济状况的评估下降了3.6点,降至134.5。

消费者信心指数衡量的是美国人对当前经济状况的评估以及对未来六个月经济前景的预期。

消费者支出约占美国经济活动的三分之二,经济学家密切关注这一数据以期洞察美国消费者的情绪变化。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

由于美国人对自身财务前景的焦虑降至12年来的最低点,加之对关税和通胀的担忧加剧,美国消费者信心指数连续第四个月下降。

世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)周二发布报告称,3月份消费者信心指数下降7.2点,降至92.9。据数据公司慧甚(FactSet)的一项调查显示,分析师此前预计该指数将降至94.5。

世界大型企业联合会周二的报告指出,衡量美国人对收入、商业及就业市场短期预期的指数下降了9.6点,降至65.2。

这一数值为12年来的最低水平,且远低于80的临界值。世界大型企业联合会表示,该阈值低于80预示着近期可能出现经济衰退。不过,该机构报告称,预计明年经济将陷入衰退的消费者比例维持在九个月来的高位。

世界大型企业联合会的高级经济学家斯蒂芬妮·吉查德(Stephanie Guichard)表示:“过去几个月里,消费者对未来收入还保持着相当高涨的乐观情绪,但如今这种情绪已基本消失,这表明对经济和劳动力市场的担忧已开始蔓延到消费者对自身状况的评估中。”

该机构的调查显示,消费者在房屋与汽车方面的购买计划呈现出下降趋势。然而,鉴于受访者对未来感到焦虑,令人颇为意外的是,消费者购买家电等大件商品的意向却有所上升。该机构表示,这可能反映出消费者希望在特朗普的关税政策生效导致价格上涨之前完成采购。

尽管通胀率已从疫情后反弹时期的高位回落,但仍高于美联储2%的目标。持续高企的物价,再加上唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布对许多进口商品加征关税,使得在经济忧虑加剧的背景下,美国民众对消费持谨慎态度。

在2024年底,消费者信心似乎逐渐增强,节假日消费也较为慷慨。然而,美国1月份的零售销售额大幅下降,部分归因于严寒天气的影响。

本月早些时候,政府报告称,在1月份大幅削减开支后,美国人在2月份适度增加了支出。

世界大型企业联合会周二报告称,消费者对当前经济状况的评估下降了3.6点,降至134.5。

消费者信心指数衡量的是美国人对当前经济状况的评估以及对未来六个月经济前景的预期。

消费者支出约占美国经济活动的三分之二,经济学家密切关注这一数据以期洞察美国消费者的情绪变化。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

U.S. consumer confidence fell for the fourth straight month as Americans’ anxiety about their financial futures declined to a 12-year low amid rising concern over tariffs and inflation.

The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell 7.2 points in March to 92.9. Analysts were expecting a decline to a reading of 94.5, according to a survey by FactSet.

The Conference Board’s report Tuesday said that the measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for income, business and the job market fell 9.6 points to 65.2.

It is the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80, which the Conference Board says can signal a potential recession in the near future. However, the proportion of consumers anticipating a recession in the next year held steady at a nine-month high, the board reported.

“Consumers’ optimism about future income — which had held up quite strongly in the past few months — largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at The Conference Board.

The board’s survey showed that purchasing plans for both homes and cars declined. However, in somewhat of a surprise given respondents’ anxiety about the future, intentions to buy big-ticket items like appliances increased. The board said that could reflect a desire to buy before Trump’s tariffs kick in, leading to price increases.

While inflation has retreated from the highs during the post-pandemic rebound, it has remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Those still-elevated prices, combined with President Donald Trump’s announced tariffs on many imported goods, has Americans feeling sour about spending as concerns about the economy mount.

Consumers appeared increasingly confident heading into the end of 2024 and spent generously during the holiday season. However, U.S. retail sales dropped sharply in January, with cold weather taking some of the blame.

Earlier this month, the government reported that Americans modestly stepped up their spending in February after a sharp pullback the previous month.

The board reported Tuesday that consumers’ view of current conditions decreased 3.6 points to 134.5.

The consumer confidence index measures both Americans’ assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for the next six months.

Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity and is closely watched by economists for signs about how the American consumer is feeling.

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