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贝莱德CEO:所有人都对美国经济形势感到严重忧虑

Paolo Confino
2025-04-06

贝莱德集团承认,人们对美国经济状况的担忧情绪正在蔓延。

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图片来源:Victor J. Blue—Bloomberg

• 在周一市场遭遇重挫之时,贝莱德集团(BlackRock)首席执行官拉里·芬克(Larry Fink)在发布的年度信中称,经与众多人士交流,他察觉到大家对美国经济衰退忧心忡忡。这些担忧源于特朗普政府关税政策所引发的不确定性正与日俱增,人们难以预判其将如何冲击美国经济。

全球最大资产管理公司的首席执行官不断接收到来自各方的声音,他们无一不表达着对美国经济的担忧。

贝莱德集团首席执行官拉里·芬克在周一发布的年度信中写道:“几乎所有客户、企业领袖——所有与我交流过的人,都向我表达了这种担忧。他们对美国经济形势的忧虑程度,远超近年来的任何时期。”

芬克是在周一发表上述言论的,当时美股开盘便遭遇重挫,投资者担心即将施行的关税政策或将给经济带来更为严重的损害。主要股指全线走低。标准普尔500指数下跌0.75%,纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.82%,股票期货因前景黯淡而呈现下跌态势。华尔街下调了经济预期,同时调高了美国经济衰退的可能性。引发华尔街悲观情绪的导火索是唐纳德·特朗普总统关税政策即将生效的最后期限(该政策定于4月2日生效)。

自特朗普上任以来,其反复无常的关税政策持续冲击着市场秩序。由于特朗普频繁加征关税,随后又取消,而且目标对象既涵盖盟友,也涉及对手,投资者几乎无法预判未来走势。

美国银行(Bank of America)全球经济学家安东尼奥·加布里埃尔(Antonio Gabriel)在周一发布的一份分析师报告中写道:“潜在的关税方案极为繁杂,其对市场的影响也千差万别。”

加布里埃尔补充道,美国银行预计特朗普将推行一系列关税举措,一方面针对特定国家,另一方面瞄准个别经济部门。截至目前,特朗普已在这两方面有所行动。上周,特朗普对汽车行业加征了高达25%的关税。今年早些时候,特朗普对包括中国、加拿大和墨西哥在内的多个国家实施了关税政策。

这两方面关税政策的出台,引发了人们的担忧情绪。各界忧心这些关税将推高消费者物价,同时导致投资规模收缩。以汽车制造业为例,由于众多零部件依赖进口,汽车制造商陷入两难困境:要么将成本转嫁给消费者,提高汽车售价;要么自行承担关税成本,蒙受数十亿美元的损失,除此之外,几乎没有其他可行的应对之策。与此同时,关于哪些商品将被列入针对特定国家的关税清单,相关方面几乎没有披露任何详细信息。这使得企业难以评估这些关税政策对自身供应链造成的全面影响。

芬克曾指出,全年经济信心都在持续削弱。

芬克本月早些时候在接受美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)采访时表示:“从短期来看,整体影响表现为人们都在观望,纷纷选择退缩。在与来自不同行业的首席执行官交流时,我频繁听到他们说,经济正呈现出疲软态势。”

然而,在这封年度信中,芬克却转向了截然不同的基调。他并未提及金融界普遍存在的经济不确定性的具体细节。相反,芬克选择传达积极乐观的信息,着重指出资本市场在其400年历史中所展现出的韧性。

芬克写道,资本市场“是我们专门构建的体系,旨在解决诸如富足表象下的资源匮乏问题,以及在经济繁荣之下潜藏的焦虑不安情绪等内在矛盾”。

然而,公众对于美国经济的信心依然疲软。周一,高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)将美国经济陷入衰退的可能性从20%上调至35%。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的预测更为悲观,认为美国经济陷入衰退的概率高达50%。

华尔街担心关税会成为经济增长的绊脚石。在3月份举行的最新一次会议上,美联储将国内生产总值的增长预期从2.1%下调至1.7%。在会后的讲话中,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)称特朗普不断变化的政策,已成为美联储预测经济走向时极为关键的考量因素。 (财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

• 在周一市场遭遇重挫之时,贝莱德集团(BlackRock)首席执行官拉里·芬克(Larry Fink)在发布的年度信中称,经与众多人士交流,他察觉到大家对美国经济衰退忧心忡忡。这些担忧源于特朗普政府关税政策所引发的不确定性正与日俱增,人们难以预判其将如何冲击美国经济。

全球最大资产管理公司的首席执行官不断接收到来自各方的声音,他们无一不表达着对美国经济的担忧。

贝莱德集团首席执行官拉里·芬克在周一发布的年度信中写道:“几乎所有客户、企业领袖——所有与我交流过的人,都向我表达了这种担忧。他们对美国经济形势的忧虑程度,远超近年来的任何时期。”

芬克是在周一发表上述言论的,当时美股开盘便遭遇重挫,投资者担心即将施行的关税政策或将给经济带来更为严重的损害。主要股指全线走低。标准普尔500指数下跌0.75%,纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.82%,股票期货因前景黯淡而呈现下跌态势。华尔街下调了经济预期,同时调高了美国经济衰退的可能性。引发华尔街悲观情绪的导火索是唐纳德·特朗普总统关税政策即将生效的最后期限(该政策定于4月2日生效)。

自特朗普上任以来,其反复无常的关税政策持续冲击着市场秩序。由于特朗普频繁加征关税,随后又取消,而且目标对象既涵盖盟友,也涉及对手,投资者几乎无法预判未来走势。

美国银行(Bank of America)全球经济学家安东尼奥·加布里埃尔(Antonio Gabriel)在周一发布的一份分析师报告中写道:“潜在的关税方案极为繁杂,其对市场的影响也千差万别。”

加布里埃尔补充道,美国银行预计特朗普将推行一系列关税举措,一方面针对特定国家,另一方面瞄准个别经济部门。截至目前,特朗普已在这两方面有所行动。上周,特朗普对汽车行业加征了高达25%的关税。今年早些时候,特朗普对包括中国、加拿大和墨西哥在内的多个国家实施了关税政策。

这两方面关税政策的出台,引发了人们的担忧情绪。各界忧心这些关税将推高消费者物价,同时导致投资规模收缩。以汽车制造业为例,由于众多零部件依赖进口,汽车制造商陷入两难困境:要么将成本转嫁给消费者,提高汽车售价;要么自行承担关税成本,蒙受数十亿美元的损失,除此之外,几乎没有其他可行的应对之策。与此同时,关于哪些商品将被列入针对特定国家的关税清单,相关方面几乎没有披露任何详细信息。这使得企业难以评估这些关税政策对自身供应链造成的全面影响。

芬克曾指出,全年经济信心都在持续削弱。

芬克本月早些时候在接受美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)采访时表示:“从短期来看,整体影响表现为人们都在观望,纷纷选择退缩。在与来自不同行业的首席执行官交流时,我频繁听到他们说,经济正呈现出疲软态势。”

然而,在这封年度信中,芬克却转向了截然不同的基调。他并未提及金融界普遍存在的经济不确定性的具体细节。相反,芬克选择传达积极乐观的信息,着重指出资本市场在其400年历史中所展现出的韧性。

芬克写道,资本市场“是我们专门构建的体系,旨在解决诸如富足表象下的资源匮乏问题,以及在经济繁荣之下潜藏的焦虑不安情绪等内在矛盾”。

然而,公众对于美国经济的信心依然疲软。周一,高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)将美国经济陷入衰退的可能性从20%上调至35%。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的预测更为悲观,认为美国经济陷入衰退的概率高达50%。

华尔街担心关税会成为经济增长的绊脚石。在3月份举行的最新一次会议上,美联储将国内生产总值的增长预期从2.1%下调至1.7%。在会后的讲话中,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)称特朗普不断变化的政策,已成为美联储预测经济走向时极为关键的考量因素。 (财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

• In an annual letter published Monday when markets took a beating, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said many people he spoke to were nervous about an economic downturn. Many of the fears stem from mounting uncertainty about how the Trump administration’s tariff policy will affect the economy.

Everyone keeps telling the CEO of the world’s largest asset manager how worried they are about the economy.

“I hear it from nearly every client, nearly every leader—nearly every person—I talk to,” BlackRock CEO Larry Fink wrote in his annual letter on Monday. “They’re more anxious about the economy than any time in recent memory.”

Fink’s comments came on Monday when the stock market slipped as soon as it opened and investors feared impending tariffs could further hurt the economy. Major indexes fell across the board. The S&P 500 dropped 0.75%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.82%, and stock futures fell on a negative outlook. Wall Street cut its economic projections and raised the chances of a recession. The inciting factor for the doom and gloom on Wall Street was the impending deadline for President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which are set to go into effect on Wednesday, April 2.

Since Trump took office, his back-and-forth tariff policies have roiled markets. Since Trump has frequently imposed tariffs, but then removed them, and targeted allies and adversaries alike, investors have little indication about what to expect.

“There is a vast array of potential tariffs on the table, with widely varying implications,” Bank of America global economist Antonio Gabriel wrote in an analyst note published Monday.

Bank of America expected Trump to impose a combination of tariffs targeting both specific countries and individual sectors of the economy, Gabriel added. So far, Trump has done both. Last week, Trump instituted a series of 25% tariffs on the automobile industry. Earlier this year, Trump targeted several countries like China, Canada, and Mexico with their own batch of tariffs.

Both sets of tariffs were met with concerns they would raise prices for consumers and cause a pullback in investment. Auto manufacturers, which import many components that are made abroad, would have little recourse but to increase costs for car buyers or lose billions by eating the costs on their own. Meanwhile, few details have been released about which goods would be included in any country-specific tariffs. This makes it hard for companies to assess their full impact on their supply chains.

Fink had pointed to eroding confidence in the economy throughout the year.

“The collective impact in the short run is that people are pausing, they’re pulling back,” Fink told CNN earlier this month. “Talking to CEOs throughout the economy, I hear that the economy is weakening as we speak.”

In this annual letter, however, Fink struck a different tone. He didn’t touch on the specifics of economic uncertainty that was rampant across the financial world. Instead, Fink opted for a hopeful message, pointing to the resiliency of capital markets over their 400-year history.

Capital markets are “the system we invented specifically to overcome contradictions like scarcity amid abundance, and anxiety amid prosperity,” Fink wrote.

But there is still a lack of confidence in the U.S. economy. On Monday, Goldman Sachs raised its possibility of a recession from 20% to 35%. Deutsche Bank had an even drearier outlook with a 50/50 chance of a recession.

Wall Street fears tariffs could hamper economic growth. The Federal Reserve cut its GDP growth outlook down from 2.1% to 1.7% at its latest meeting in March. In remarks following the meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cited Trump’s changing policies as a critical factor in the central bank’s forecast of where the economy was headed.

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