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关税乱局中,黄金价格飙升

Jeff John Roberts
2025-04-14

在美股暴跌、全球市场对美国国债失去信心的一周里,可能有更多人加入了炒黄金的行列。

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图片来源:Christopher Furlong—Getty Images

在经济崩溃时期,黄金总能保值——这是被称作“炒金者”的投资者群体的共识。在美股暴跌、全球市场对美国国债失去信心的一周里,可能有更多人加入了炒黄金的行列。但黄金作为终极避险资产的普遍认知是否准确?在当前金融动荡中,它的价值是否依旧坚挺?简单回答是:确实如此。

当特朗普通过实施高额关税搅动全球经济时,黄金价格的走势印证了其强大的抗跌能力。3月15日,金价首次突破每盎司3,000美元大关后持续攀升。不过任何考虑购入黄金的人都应该明白:这种贵金属在危机中的具体表现如何?如何购买黄金,以及为何像所有投资一样,黄金也存在固有缺陷。

关税乱局中金价飙升

本月初,标普500指数暴跌10.5%导致约6.6万亿美元市值蒸发之际,黄金价格也出现下跌。这看似出人意料,甚至让人质疑黄金的避险属性。但表象具有欺骗性:这次下跌并非投资者对黄金失去信心,而是源于交易员为满足其他头寸的保证金要求而紧急抛售各类资产引发的暂时波动。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)大宗商品分析师莉娜·托马斯表示:“简而言之,黄金的避险地位并未被削弱。保证金驱动的平仓结束后,黄金需求将大幅攀升,金价很可能重拾升势。”这种规律在下图中得到完美体现——该图表对比了关税危机期间标普500指数与黄金的表现:

托马斯补充说,这种波动模式具有典型性。回顾2020年3月新冠疫情引发的市场恐慌,黄金在最初下跌5%后迅速反弹。贵金属交易商赞纳金属公司(Zaner Metals LLC)副总裁彼得·格兰特持类似观点。他指出,即使在就业数据不佳等情形引发的较小规模市场动荡中,黄金同样会先跌后涨。

黄金在危机当中作为避险资产的声誉源远流长,这既源于黄金在世界各地的吸引力——从美国、印度到中国,黄金都备受推崇,另外一个原因则是其供应有限。正如摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)近期报告所述:“人类历史开采的黄金总量约20万吨,仅够铺满一个足球场至一米深,且大部分仍存于世。”

近年来,黄金的吸引力与日俱增。金价从每盎司1,000美元升至2,000美元用了12年(2020年达成),而突破3,000美元仅用了五年。摩根大通在报告中连续第三年将黄金列为首选看涨资产,并设问:“金价4,000美元是否指日可待?”

虽然最近的市场动荡导致金价波动,但地缘政治因素也在推高金价。特别是各国央行正以前所未有的速度增持黄金,以降低美元在外汇储备中的占比。面对特朗普总统发起的关税战,加之全球投资者开始质疑美国国债是否仍属零风险资产,在可预见的未来,黄金热必将持续。

持有黄金的成本考量

黄金因其稀缺性、实体质感和和广泛的市场认可度而备受追捧,但它存在一个致命缺陷:零收益。与多数会产生股息或其他回报的投资不同,持有黄金不仅不产生收益,还需支付额外成本。

对真正的“炒金者”而言,零收益无关紧要,他们看重的是安全保障和长期升值潜力。但对普通投资者来说,将大量财富配置于不产生收益的资产需三思。不过少量购买黄金对大多数人而言仍是明智之选,既能利用黄金的相对稳定性,也可实现投资组合多元化的目标。

购买黄金的最佳途径是什么?投资黄金的方式主要取决于个人偏好:如投资者重视低成本和便捷性,还是更青睐持有实物金属的安全感和愉悦感。若属前者,最佳选择是通过SPDR Gold Shares(代码GLD)或iShares Gold Trust(代码IAU)等黄金ETF进行投资。

购买黄金ETF中的份额,就像通过在线券商进行股票交易一样简单。虽然需要向ETF管理者支付费用(GLD为0.4%,IAU为0.25%),但这笔费用远低于实物黄金的持有成本。

若选择实物黄金,需额外支付铸造加工费。据金属交易商格兰特介绍,根据产品类型(金币比金条溢价更高)和购买数量,投资者支付的高于现货价格的溢价通常在2%-5%之间波动。精打细算者还可考虑好市多(Costco),该零售商销售黄金等贵金属,加价幅度约2%。

持有实物黄金还涉及更多隐性成本:安全运输费用、保险箱租赁或防盗设施支出等。

单纯从成本角度考量,黄金ETF更具优势。但若真正担忧经济崩溃(或单纯喜爱实物黄金),持有实体金属仍是首选。正如格兰特所言:“实物黄金是唯一不属于他人负债的黄金形式。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

在经济崩溃时期,黄金总能保值——这是被称作“炒金者”的投资者群体的共识。在美股暴跌、全球市场对美国国债失去信心的一周里,可能有更多人加入了炒黄金的行列。但黄金作为终极避险资产的普遍认知是否准确?在当前金融动荡中,它的价值是否依旧坚挺?简单回答是:确实如此。

当特朗普通过实施高额关税搅动全球经济时,黄金价格的走势印证了其强大的抗跌能力。3月15日,金价首次突破每盎司3,000美元大关后持续攀升。不过任何考虑购入黄金的人都应该明白:这种贵金属在危机中的具体表现如何?如何购买黄金,以及为何像所有投资一样,黄金也存在固有缺陷。

关税乱局中金价飙升

本月初,标普500指数暴跌10.5%导致约6.6万亿美元市值蒸发之际,黄金价格也出现下跌。这看似出人意料,甚至让人质疑黄金的避险属性。但表象具有欺骗性:这次下跌并非投资者对黄金失去信心,而是源于交易员为满足其他头寸的保证金要求而紧急抛售各类资产引发的暂时波动。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)大宗商品分析师莉娜·托马斯表示:“简而言之,黄金的避险地位并未被削弱。保证金驱动的平仓结束后,黄金需求将大幅攀升,金价很可能重拾升势。”这种规律在下图中得到完美体现——该图表对比了关税危机期间标普500指数与黄金的表现:

托马斯补充说,这种波动模式具有典型性。回顾2020年3月新冠疫情引发的市场恐慌,黄金在最初下跌5%后迅速反弹。贵金属交易商赞纳金属公司(Zaner Metals LLC)副总裁彼得·格兰特持类似观点。他指出,即使在就业数据不佳等情形引发的较小规模市场动荡中,黄金同样会先跌后涨。

黄金在危机当中作为避险资产的声誉源远流长,这既源于黄金在世界各地的吸引力——从美国、印度到中国,黄金都备受推崇,另外一个原因则是其供应有限。正如摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)近期报告所述:“人类历史开采的黄金总量约20万吨,仅够铺满一个足球场至一米深,且大部分仍存于世。”

近年来,黄金的吸引力与日俱增。金价从每盎司1,000美元升至2,000美元用了12年(2020年达成),而突破3,000美元仅用了五年。摩根大通在报告中连续第三年将黄金列为首选看涨资产,并设问:“金价4,000美元是否指日可待?”

虽然最近的市场动荡导致金价波动,但地缘政治因素也在推高金价。特别是各国央行正以前所未有的速度增持黄金,以降低美元在外汇储备中的占比。面对特朗普总统发起的关税战,加之全球投资者开始质疑美国国债是否仍属零风险资产,在可预见的未来,黄金热必将持续。

持有黄金的成本考量

黄金因其稀缺性、实体质感和和广泛的市场认可度而备受追捧,但它存在一个致命缺陷:零收益。与多数会产生股息或其他回报的投资不同,持有黄金不仅不产生收益,还需支付额外成本。

对真正的“炒金者”而言,零收益无关紧要,他们看重的是安全保障和长期升值潜力。但对普通投资者来说,将大量财富配置于不产生收益的资产需三思。不过少量购买黄金对大多数人而言仍是明智之选,既能利用黄金的相对稳定性,也可实现投资组合多元化的目标。

购买黄金的最佳途径是什么?投资黄金的方式主要取决于个人偏好:如投资者重视低成本和便捷性,还是更青睐持有实物金属的安全感和愉悦感。若属前者,最佳选择是通过SPDR Gold Shares(代码GLD)或iShares Gold Trust(代码IAU)等黄金ETF进行投资。

购买黄金ETF中的份额,就像通过在线券商进行股票交易一样简单。虽然需要向ETF管理者支付费用(GLD为0.4%,IAU为0.25%),但这笔费用远低于实物黄金的持有成本。

若选择实物黄金,需额外支付铸造加工费。据金属交易商格兰特介绍,根据产品类型(金币比金条溢价更高)和购买数量,投资者支付的高于现货价格的溢价通常在2%-5%之间波动。精打细算者还可考虑好市多(Costco),该零售商销售黄金等贵金属,加价幅度约2%。

持有实物黄金还涉及更多隐性成本:安全运输费用、保险箱租赁或防盗设施支出等。

单纯从成本角度考量,黄金ETF更具优势。但若真正担忧经济崩溃(或单纯喜爱实物黄金),持有实体金属仍是首选。正如格兰特所言:“实物黄金是唯一不属于他人负债的黄金形式。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

In times of economic collapse, you can count on gold to keep its value. That’s the view of investors known as goldbugs, and during a week when stocks have collapsed and global markets are losing faith in U.S. Treasury bills, their ranks are likely to grow. But is the popular notion of gold as the ultimate safe haven actually true, and is its value holding up during the current financial turmoil? The short answer is: Yes and yes.

Indeed, a look at recent prices suggests gold has held up better than ever as President Trump has whipsawed the global economy by imposing sky-high tariffs. It crossed the $3,000-per-ounce mark for the first time on March 15, and has climbed even higher since. Anyone considering buying some, though, should understand how exactly gold performs during a crisis, how you can go about acquiring it, and why—as with any investment—there are certain drawbacks that go with it.

Gold surges amid tariff chaos

When the S&P 500 fell 10.5% early this month, wiping out around $6.6 trillion in market value, the price of gold fell, too. That might come as a surprise and, for some, would call into question gold’s reputation as a safe haven. But initial appearances are deceiving: The drop didn’t reflect investors losing faith in gold, but rather a temporary blip that saw traders frantically selling all kinds of assets to cover margin calls on other positions.

“Short answer is no, gold’s safe-haven status has not weakened,” said Lina Thomas, a commodities analyst at Goldman Sachs. “We will likely see a rise in gold prices once the margin-driven liquidation is completed, after which we expect to see a sharp increase in gold demand.” Indeed, exactly that pattern is reflected in the chart below, comparing the performance of the S&P 500 and gold during the tariff crisis:

Thomas added that this is a typical pattern, noting that during past extreme market events such as the COVID panic in March of 2020, gold dropped as much as 5% before quickly rebounding. Peter Grant, a vice president at precious metals dealer Zaner Metals LLC, expressed a similar sentiment, noting that this pattern of gold dipping then shooting up also occurs during more minor stock market disruptions, such as in reaction to a bad jobs report.

Gold’s reputation as a safe haven during a crisis is long-standing. It derives in part from the metal’s universal appeal—it is popular in the U.S., India, China, and everywhere else—as well as from its limited supply. As J.P. Morgan noted in a recent report: “Specifically, about 200,000 tonnes of gold have been mined throughout human history, enough to cover a soccer field to a depth of just one meter. Most of it remains with us today.”

In recent years, gold’s appeal appears to have grown. While it took 12 years for gold’s price to increase from $1,000 to $2,000 an ounce (a mark it reached in 2020), it took only another five years for it to break the $3,000 barrier. In its report, J.P. Morgan named gold as a top bullish pick for the third year in a row, and asked, “Is $4,000 in the cards?”

While the latest market turmoil has driven gold’s recent upswing, the price increase is also being driven by geopolitical factors. Specifically, central banks around the world have been buying gold at an unprecedented clip as part of an effort to reduce the share of U.S. dollars in their reserves. In light of President Trump’s tariff war, and as global investors begin to question whether Treasury bills still qualify as a virtually risk-free asset, the embrace of gold is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

Buying gold—and the downside of holding it

Gold is sought after because of its scarcity, physical appeal, and popularity. But there is one thing gold does not offer: yield. Unlike most investments, which pay a dividend or other sort of reward for holding them, gold does not generate income; indeed, it will cost you a premium to hold it.

For true goldbugs, this lack of yield is not a big concern, since they value the metal for its security and believe the price will only go up in the long term. Less committed investors, though, may want to think twice about putting a sizable portion of their wealth in an asset that doesn’t produce income. Buying a small amount, though, is likely a wise choice for most people, both owing to gold’s relative stability and in the interest of the broader goal of a diverse portfolio.

So what is the best way to go about buying it? This is primarily a personal choice on whether you favor low costs and convenience, or else the security and pleasure of holding physical metal. If you prefer the former, the best option is to purchase gold via an ETF like SPDR Gold Shares (ticker GLD) or iShares Gold Trust (ticker IAU).

Buying shares in a gold ETF is as simple as placing an order through your online broker. While you still pay a fee to the ETF manager, it is a modest one: GLD comes with a fee of 0.4%, while IAU charges 0.25%. This is not the case with physical gold.

If you prefer to hold your gold in your hand, you will have to pay extra to take account of the minting and fabrication cost. According to Grant, the metals dealer, the premium you will pay above the spot market price will vary depending on what you buy—a Gold Eagle coin will cost you more than a simple bar—and on the quantity you order, but says it can range around 2% to 5%. Bargain hunters may also consider Costco, which sells gold and other precious metals and reportedly charges a markup of around 2%.

Just holding gold involves costs of its own: You’ll pay a fee to have the gold safely shipped to your house, or anywhere else that’s secure, and you’ll likely need to pay for something safe- or vault-like to protect it from theft.

Based on cost alone, buying gold as an ETF makes more sense. But if you are truly worried about economic collapse (or simply like holding physical gold), then buying it in metal form may be your best option. As Grant notes, “Physical gold is the only form of gold that’s not someone else’s liability.”

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
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