亚马逊Vs.苹果：对决无期，各自精彩

    虽然iPad极具诱惑力，但是在经济困难时期，很多人面对iPad高达500美元的售价还是会望而却步。这就是为什么Kindle在这样一个iPad时代里仍然能保持很高的销量。早些时候曾有人认为，苹果的iBooks应用和iPad版的Kindle应用将使Kindle平板成为一款边缘设备，现在这种臆断也已不攻自破。

    老款的Kindle平板电脑的确不是一款所谓的边缘产品。虽然亚马逊不会披露Kindle平板的具体销售数据，但据分析人士的估算，Kindle平板已经卖出了数百万台，很大程度上是因为它的售价只有139美元（现在已经下降到了109美元，或是79美元的带广告版）。新款Kindle Fire的价格现为199美元，比之前盛传的生产成本还低了20美元。

    亚马逊Kindle Fire平板电脑的锁定的目标人群仅仅只是将平板电脑当成一种娱乐设备，花500美元不值得，200美元则刚刚好。早期的迹象已经证明了这一点：Kindle Fire推出才5天，预订用户人数就超过了25万人，据科技博客Cult of Android的计算，这个速度已经接近iPad 2发布时的情形。

    Kindle Fire发布后将不可避免地蚕食掉苹果在平板电脑市场上的一部分份额，但这并不意味着它一定会减缓苹果iPad的市场销量。Kindle Fire正在低端市场上安营扎寨，把高端市场留给了iPad。另外，随着市场高低两端主打内容的平板电脑越来越多，总有一天，平板电脑在家庭中会像今天的电视一样普遍。平板电脑市场总体会呈现增长加速，这股增长的势头会同时抬高亚马逊和苹果的销量，推动这两家公司产品生态系统的发展。

    对于苹果来说，它的问题很可能要等到几年后才会浮出水面。苹果必须努力在没有乔布斯的情况下保持领导地位。而且随着时间的推移，要保持iPad作为一款高端平板的吸引力也会越来越难（iPhone 4S的发布使一些人相信，在智能手机上，苹果已经开始失去吸引力了）。

    随着市场的成熟，产品也会日趋同质化。这种现象在PC行业已经发生过了：有些功能以前只属于某些高级产品，但它们渐渐会普及到低端市场上，这时价格就成了左右消费者选择的重要因素。出现这种现象时，高端市场就会缩水，变成一个小众市场。

    苹果的Macbook系列笔记本使苹果在高端PC市场上处于一个赢利的增长地位，这个市场上一台笔记本的价格动辄数百美元。未来几年里，iPad也会成为平板电脑市场上的高端产品。然而，一旦平板电脑成为廉价商品，苹果就必须下大力气，才能保证它在创新上的吸引力。届时，苹果必须再从它的魔法帽子里“变”出一个全新的重磅炸弹。

    译者：朴成奎

    As appealing as an iPad is, many people in these tough economic times have held off on spending $500 for a tablet computer. That's a big reason why the Kindle has remained a hot seller in the age of the iPad, defying early predictions that the iBooks and Kindle apps on the iPad would turn the Kindle into a fringe device.

    Indeed, the original Kindle was not a fringe product. Amazon won't disclose Kindles sales figures, but analysts estimate several million have sold, thanks in good part to its $139 price tag (now reduced to $109, or $79 with ads). The Kindle Fire is selling for $199 -- $20 less than it reportedly costs to make.

    With the Kindle Fire, Amazon is betting that people who see a tablet as an entertainment device might think $500 is too rich, but $200 is worth it. Early indications validate that: More than 250,000 pre-orders were placed for the Kindle Fire in the first five days, a pace that Cult of Android reckons is close to the iPad 2's launch.

    When the Kindle Fire launches, it will inevitably eat into Apple's share of the tablet market. But that won't necessarily mean it's slowing Apple's sales of the iPad. The Kindle Fire is setting up camp at the low-end of the market, leaving the high-end for the iPad. And with a robust offering of content-rich tablets at both ends of the market, tablets could become a device as ubiquitous in homes as the TV is today. The overall industry could see growth accelerate -- the proverbial rising tide that will lift sales at Amazon and Apple alike, boosting both firms' ecosystems.

    For Apple, the concern is more likely to surface a few years down the road. Apple will be pushing to maintain its leadership without Steve Jobs, and maintaining the iPad's allure as a high-end tablet will be grow harder in time (the iPhone 4S announcement left some convinced this is already happening in smartphones.)

    When markets mature they become commoditized over time. This happened in the PC industry: What were once features exclusive to premium products migrate slowly down to the lower-end of the market, and price becomes the paramount factor for consumers. When that happens, the high-end gets smaller, becoming a niche.

    Apple's Macbooks have given it a lucrative and growing position at the high-end of a PC market where most of the machines sold are commodities priced at a several hundred dollars. For the next few years, the iPad will do the same in the tablet market. But once tablets become low-priced commodities, Apple will have its work cut out for it to retain the iPad's innovative allure. That's when it'll have to pull the next big thing out of its hat.