假如盖茨归来，微软将会怎样？

    盖茨的回归或许有助于提高微软传递讯息的效率，但哈福德指出，甚至苹果公司的史蒂夫•乔布斯也需要一位得力干将（现任CEO蒂姆•库克）帮助他处理公司日常的繁杂事务。目前还不清楚盖茨是否能留住他的“左膀右臂”鲍尔默，抑或找到一位替代人选。而且必须指出的是，盖茨在任职期间所阐述的愿景也不止一次地无疾而终。

    分析人士表示，无论是谁执掌微软，都将面前严峻的挑战——即便那个人是比尔•盖茨。鲍尔默执掌期间，微软在遭受灾难性的Windows Vista带来的打击之后，重新振作，成功地发布了Windows 7 操作系统。现在，该公司正积极筹备Windows 8系统，并希望将其应用于平板设备领域。但微软必须把开发商吸引到它的平台上，还要跟亚马逊（Amazon）、苹果和谷歌等公司一决雌雄。“创始人回归之后，帮助公司在特定市场迎头赶上的例子寥寥无几，” 艾维克合伙人公司(Evercore Partners)的柯克•蒙特尼警告说。他所在的公司为微软实施投资银行业务。“当微软还在市场上占据主导地位的时候，盖茨做得很不错。”蒙特尼警告说，即便是盖茨，也将面临挑战。

    哈福德和其他分析家认为，鲍尔默在微软的地位非常牢固，他依然是盖茨的密友。他们表示，最大的可能是，在该公司于2012年及以后推出新产品期间，鲍尔默将继续留任，至少要到2016年他满60岁的时候。微软的一位发言人指出，该公司并没有法定的退休年龄，而且确实制定了继任计划，但他不愿意透露具体的细节，也没有就盖茨回归一事发表评论。在马奎尔看来，微软的内部人士，Windows系统负责人史蒂文•西诺夫斯基或许最有可能成为CEO接班人——“他甚至穿了一件黑色的高翻领毛衣。”哈福德表示，无论继任计划何时实施，它都会跟盖茨当年单方面地把权杖交给好友鲍尔默的时候大不相同，因为公司的董事会将拥有更大的发言权。

    即使不可能，“假使盖茨回归，微软将会怎么样？”也是一个很有可能不断浮现的问题，特别是在微软股价长期低迷的情况下。但如果比尔•盖茨真的回归了，“我绝不会草率地认定他也无力回天，”蒙特尼说。有这种想法的或许并不只有他一人。

    译者：任文科

    Gates' return could help streamline Microsoft's message, but Harford notes that even Steve Jobs at Apple (AAPL) had current CEO Tim Cook at his side to handle the nitty-gritty. It's unclear whether Gates could keep his old right-hand man, Ballmer, or find a replacement. And, it must be noted that, during his tenure, Gates articulated more than one vision that went nowhere.

    Analysts say that whoever is in charge at Microsoft will face serious headwinds -- even Gates. Under Ballmer, the company picked itself up after the disastrous Windows Vista, launching Windows 7 successfully. Now, it is preparing Windows 8, which the company hopes will launch it into tablets. But it must draw developers to its platforms and duke it out with with Amazon (AMZN), Apple and Google. "There are very few examples of where returning founders had to come from behind in their certain market," warns Kirk Materne of Evercore Partners, which carries out investment banking services for Microsoft. "Gates was great at Microsoft when Microsoft was the dominant player." Even Gates, Materne warns, would face challenges.

    Analysts and Harford agree that Ballmer's position at Microsoft is well established, and he remains a close friend of Gates. It's most probably, they say, that Ballmer stays in charge as the company brings its new products to bear in 2012 and beyond, at least until Ballmer turns 60 in 2016. A Microsoft spokesman noted the company does not have a fixed retirement age and that the company does have a succession plan in place but would not provide details. (He declined to comment on a Gates return to the company.) Insider Steven Sinofsky, who heads up Windows, might be the company's best bet for a high-profile scion -- "he even wears the black turtlenecks," Maguire notes. Harford says that whenever the succession is, it will differ greatly from when Gates unilaterally passed control to his buddy Ballmer, as the board will have a much greater say.

    Even if unlikely, Gate's return is a "what if?" that's likely to have life, especially as long as the company's stock price languishes. But if he did return? "I wouldn't hasten to bet against Bill Gates," Materne says. He's probably not the only one.