谁将是2012年IT业的大赢家？

    市场研究机构国际数据公司（IDC）指出，2012年，全球IT开支预计将达1.8万亿美元。其中，用于移动计算、社交网络、以及分析软件等迅猛发展的技术的开支所占比例将逐渐增加。这意味着一大批新型公司明年将开始进入收获期。

    2012年，尽管微软公司（Microsoft）、IBM、甲骨文公司（Oracle）等老牌企业级公司的IT部门仍然会有上十亿美元的进项，但Facebook、亚马逊（Amazon）、以及谷歌（Google）等迟到的新秀以及依托于云技术的小型公司分到嘴里的蛋糕很可能也会进一步增大。以亚马逊互联网服务为例，到明年底，其云服务收入预计会突破10亿美元大关。同时，谷歌的企业级业务也会紧随其后，在1年半的时间内突破这个关口。“企业级平台领导地位的争夺战一触即发，IBM、微软、和甲骨文等老字号面临着来自亚马逊、谷歌、企业客户软件互联网公司Salesforce.com、以及互联网公司VMware等新型公司的强有力的挑战，”IDC最近在一份报告中指出。

    这也是老牌企业开始收购独立的软件即服务（SaaS）厂商的原因所在，因为后者亦会受益于2012年IT开支的发展趋势。其中，Workday、Taleo、Netsuite等一批公司很可能在明年被大公司收入囊中。过去几个月中，这一领域已经出现了几次大规模的收购。本月初， SAP公司宣布，以34亿美元的价格，收购基于云的人力资源管理软件厂商成功因素公司（SuccessFactors）。去年10月，甲骨文亦以15亿美元的价格，收购了在线客户服务公司即刻科技公司（RightNow Technologies）。2012年，大型企业以收购的方式，进入云计算领域的趋势将会延续。这对于基于云的小型软件厂商，至少对那些被收购的公司来说，这无疑是个利好消息。

    接下来说说Facebook。社交网络领域的大哥大一直在探索实现收入来源多元化的途径。IDC首席分析师弗兰克•詹斯表示，为了达到这个二亩地，该公司可以利用它在网民中的支配地位，转型成为银行和在线零售商的身份管理平台，从而发挥更多更大的作用。“用户的Facebook身份有可能成为网民通用的在线身份，”詹斯指出。“只有屈指可数的几家公司在消费者中有足够的号召力，并且能切实实现上述目标，而Facebook便是其中之一。”

    从一定程度上来说，Facebook Connect已经做到了这一点。通过它，用户们可以用其Facebook身份登录其他网站。在用户档案与支付站点和在线零售商之间建立连接，用户凭借其Facebook身份，轻松点击一下鼠标就能登录网站，而且还能完成采购操作。凭借这优势，Facebook即可捷足先登，在企业级市场成为规模更大、且业务更为多样化的公司。

    尽管Facebook和其他新秀有可能争得更大的市场份额，但2012年的绝大部分IT开支仍将被老牌IT厂商瓜分。“IT行业仍将继续2011年的转型之路，但2012年的行业事件、厂商选择、以及筹码大小也会与今年截然不同，”IDC首席分析师詹斯在最近发表的一份报告中称。“在争夺未来10年行业领导地位的马拉松式竞赛中，哪些公司能够成功上位，进入‘领跑方阵’，等到2012年底时，形势将会明朗化。”

    译者：大海

    Worldwide IT spending is expected to hit $1.8 trillion in 2012, according to research firm IDC. An increasing portion of those dollars will be spent on fast-growing technologies like mobile computing, social networking and analytics, which means a new lineup of companies could start to benefit in 2012.

    While the traditional enterprise players (think Microsoft (MSFT), IBM (IBM)and Oracle (ORCL)) still rake in billions of dollars from IT departments, relative newcomers like Facebook, Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG) plus smaller cloud-based companies are likely to snag a growing piece of the pie in 2012. Take Amazon Web Services, which is expected to top $1 billion in cloud services revenue by end of next year. Google's enterprise business, meanwhile, is expected to follow within 18 months. "The battle for enterprise platform dominance is just getting underway with established players like IBM, Microsoft, and Oracle facing serious challenges from Amazon, Google, Salesforce.com (CRM), and VMware (VMW)," notes a recent report from IDC.

    That's why traditional enterprise players are buying independent software-as-a-service vendors, which also stand to benefit from trends in IT spending in 2012. A handful of them -- like Workday, Taleo (TLEO) and Netsuite (N) -- are likely to get snapped up in the coming year. In the last few months there have already been several large-scale acquisitions in this space. Earlier this month, SAP announced it is buying cloud-based HR management software maker SuccessFactors (SFSF) for $3.4 billion, and last October Oracle acquired online customer service company RightNow Technologies (RNOW) for $1.5 billion. This trend of large enterprise players buying their way into the cloud will likely continue in 2012. That's good news for smaller cloud-based software vendors, at least the ones that get acquired.

    And then there's Facebook. The biggest name in social networking has been looking for a way to diversify its revenue stream. To that end, says IDC chief analyst Frank Gens, it could leverage its dominance with consumers into a larger role as an identity management platform for banks and online retailers. "Your Facebook identity could become your online identity everywhere," says Gens. "Facebook is one of the very few companies that has the reach to consumers to actually pull it off."

    That's already happening to some extent with Facebook Connect, which allows users to log into websites using their Facebook identity. Linking profiles to payment sites and online retailers could enable users to not only sign in but also make purchases with one click using their Facebook credentials. And that could put Facebook on the path of becoming a bigger and more diversified player in the enterprise market.

    But despite the potential for Facebook and other relative newcomers to snag a growing share, the majority of IT dollars will be spread among the usual suspects in 2012. "Even though the IT industry will follow along the same transformational path as it did in 2011, the events, the choices, and the stakes will be very different in 2012," chief analyst Gens said in a recent IDC report. "By the end of 2012, we should be able to see much more clearly which players have successfully positioned themselves in the 'lead pack' of the marathon-like race for industry leadership in the decade ahead."