甲骨文业绩不佳 科技业即将入冬？

    因此，如果公司的商用软件预算日益紧缩，这可能它们已经削肉见骨，已经没有进一步压缩的空间了。甲骨文首席财务官萨弗拉•卡茨表示，某些客户的项目审批时间延长了。卡茨说：“突然之间，必须得到首席执行官的批准，或经过某些类似的程序，事情才能完全定案。”但她强调说，她尚未得知有哪家公司削减了IT预算。“很明显，本季度和我们所预期的情况有所不同。我们正在关注那些其实应该早已成交的交易，以及那些由于发生了某些异常情况而未能顺利成交的交易。”

    一方面，期待甲骨文这样的公司为投资者提供经济预测是不切实际的。另一方面，听到“异常情况”这样的话时，很难不去思索它的确切含义。它仅仅只是甲骨文公司的账务出现了罕见的偶发状况，但将在下个季度得到纠正？还是某些更严重的问题呢？

    随后，甲骨文公司公布了本季度的部分预期目标，由此看来，“不合常规的情况”只限于上个季度的想法就站不住脚了。公司表示，当前季度收入的同比增长率将介于1%和5%之间，或将增长至89亿美元到93亿美元之间，低于分析人士一致预期的95亿美元；而每股盈利将在56美分到59美分之间波动，也低于华尔街预期的59美分。

    消息引发了某些分析机构的担心，其中三家——兴业银行（SocieteGenerale）、CanaccordGenuity和里昂证券（CLSA）亚太区市场在周三下调了对该股票的等级。但Canaccord认为，甲骨文所面临的挑战是该公司所独有的。“甲骨文未达到预期，是因为某些买家在等待新的硬件升级。而且在软件领域，甲骨文公司在云应用方面较为落后，”分析师理查德•戴维斯这样写道。“我们希望甲骨文能迎头赶上，但这需要进行某些研发工作，同时进行大规模的并购。”

    但其他分析师认为，甲骨文宛如一只身处有害煤矿中的金丝雀。美国银行（Bank of America）的卡辛•雷根怀疑凯茨所提到的严格的审批程序“可能是软件领域更广泛的趋势。”德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）的汤姆•恩斯特说，他“看到所有细分市场和地区都出现了不同寻常的疲软状态，我们对此感到有点费解……除了在上次经济衰退中受到严重影响的广大区域以外，很少见到所有地区的增长率都如此低迷的现象”。

    因此，这到底意味着什么？是甲骨文在向新硬件和云计算产品挺进时遇到了路障？还是在全球经济不稳定的情况下，公司IT开支出现意外收缩的最早警示？

    其他公司或许能够提供更多线索。上周三，云计算公司Tibco称，上季度公司每股盈利为42美分，高于华尔街预期的35美分。但真正的考验将会在1月中旬出现，届时，SAP以及过去三年中在高科技领域表现也很强劲的IBM之类的公司将报告其盈利。

    如果甲骨文是个例外，那么本周软件股下跌可能就是买家们买进的大好良机。但如果甲骨文是IT 支出放缓的初兆，2012年高科技世界可能就得在艰难中起步了。

    So if companies are growing stingier about their enterprise software budgets, it could signal they are starting to cut closer to the bone. Oracle CFO Safra Catz said that it's taking some of its clients longer to approve projects. "All of a sudden the CEO had to approve it or something like that, where before it was all set," Catz said. Though, she stressed that she hadn't been told yet that any companies were reducing their IT budgets. "Clearly, this quarter was not as we thought it would be, and we've been taking a look at the deals that really should have closed and that would have closed but for some sort of irregular environment."

    On the one hand, it's unrealistic to expect a company like Oracle to offer investors an economic forecast. On the other, it's hard to read a phrase like "some sort of irregular environment" and not wonder what exactly it means. Is it a one-time quirk in Oracle's accounting - an aberration that will be corrected next quarter? Or is it something more serious?

    The notion that Oracle's irregular environment was limited to last quarter was undermined when the company offered guidance. The company said the current quarter's revenue would grow between 1% and 5% on year, or to between $8.9 billion and $9.3 billion -- below the analysts' consensus of $9.5 billion -- while earnings per share would be between 56 cents and 59 cents, against the Street's 59 cents.

    That left some analysts worried enough that three of them -- Societe Generale, Canaccord Genuity and CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets -- cut their ratings on the stock Wednesday. But Canaccord felt that Oracle's challenges were unique to the company. "Oracle missed because some buyers waited for a new hardware upgrade, and on the software front the firm is behind the curve in cloud applications," wrote analyst Richard Davis. "We expect Oracle to catch up, but it will be through some R&D and a lot of M&A."

    But other analysts suggested Oracle may be the canary in an unhealthy coal mine. Bank of America's Kash Rangan wondered if the tighter approval process Catz mentioned "could be a broader trend for software." Deutsche Bank's Tom Ernst said he "saw uncharacteristic weakness across all segments and geographies, which we find a bit puzzling... Outside of the severely contracting macro environment of the last recession, it is rare to see such low growth rates for all geographic regions."

    So which is it? Has Oracle hit a speed bump as it transitions to new hardware and cloud computing offerings? Or is it the first warning sign of an unexpected contraction in corporate IT spending in the face of global economic uncertainty?

    Other companies will offer more clues. On Wednesday, Tibco (TIBX), a cloud computing company, said it earned 42 cents a share last quarter, above the Street's 35-cent estimate. But the real test will come in mid-January when companies like SAP and IBM (IBM), another strong performer in tech over the past three years, are due report earnings.

    If it turns out Oracle was the exception, this week's drop in software shares could prove to be a buying opportunity for bulls. But if Oracle is the first sign of a slowdown, the tech world could be in for a rough start in 2012.