安卓必死

    当然，我们也不能忘记，作为用户，我们得不停地应付HTML5应用的前述诸多不足之处。但是，信不信由你，眼前一时的痛苦一定能换来长期的回报。

    企业家：去年我给出的建议是：开发苹果iOS和移动Web应用，然后静候时机，等到下载量超过百万大关时再瞄准安卓系统。到头来，我发现，几乎没什么人照这个思路行事。因此，我也对自己的建议作了一点调整：先开发iOS应用和移动Web应用，然后寻求资金/帮助，开发安卓应用。但要确保，一定要开发最常用、最普通的应用程序代码。如果希望进军一个崭新的市场，也就是说在这个市场人们既不会给你钱，也不会给你看得见的推广作为回报，那就必须走超级精益的道路，将界面的整个开发工作都放到Mobile Webkit平台上（借助Phonegap等工具）来完成，直到确信开发出来的应用能够赢得大量的用户。

    一旦WebOS开发陷入死循环，惠普（HP）肯定会心甘情愿地许以高薪，激励开发人员开发一切能够带动其操作系统平台的应用。这已经是个公开的秘密。我认为，安卓手机一线厂商目前还没有走到这一步，但假以时间，这一点很有可能成为现实。尽管如此，仍然会存在各种各样的麻烦，而且你最好接受微软的“求爱”；如此，在派系林立、竞争激烈的安卓手机市场，你开发的应用就会物以稀为贵。尽管亚马逊的热门应用很可能永远无需支付开发经费，特别是鉴于眼下的情况，虽然目前亚马逊只赶上了一个圣诞节，但是它某些应用类别的下载量已经超越了行业标准Google Market。而余下的应用，恐怕是越有助于获得用户的，下载量反而越小。于此同时，不妨视之为非股权收益减损的股票资金来源。

    今年对于移动操作系统市场而言，着实是异常有趣的一年。聊完安卓系统之后，下一回我会谈谈我对苹果iOS系统的看法（这个操作系统也并非形势一片大好）。

    Antonio Rodriguez是矩阵合伙人公司（Matrix Partners）的主要合伙人。本文来自他的博客。

    译者：大海

    Let's not forget, of course, that as users you'll have to deal with the aforementioned jankiness of HTML5 applications for a few revs. Trust me though, short-term pain, long-term benefit.*

    Entrepreneurs: Last year my advice was to build iOS and mobile web app and wait until you've got a million downloads before targeting Android. I see almost no one pursuing that approach these days, so I'll revise it a little: Build an iOS app and a mobile web app and then go hunting for dollars/help to develop for the splinters of Android, opting to build yourself only the most generic bits of app code that you will for sure be able to reuse. If you want to get on a market where no one will pay you either in dollars or in in-kind promotion, go super lean and build all of your interface in Mobile Webkit (through something like Phonegap) until you've got a feel for whether the particular splinter presents a juicy vein of user adoption.

    It not a particularly well-kept secret that when WebOS was in its death spiral, HP would happily pay developers to port any application which had shown traction to their platform. To my knowledge the Android tier one handset guys have not done this yet, but given a little time it may become a reality. There will still be all sorts of headaches involved, and you might be better off taking the love from Microsoft, but in a world of several warring Androids, you are the scarce commodity. Though the more popular splinters such as Amazon's will likely never have to pay for developers, especially given the fact that with only one Christmas under their belt, they are already outperforming the standard Google Market in terms of downloads for some app categories, the rest will, probably in inverse proportion to how valuable they will be to getting you users. And in the meanwhile consider them non-dilutive equity financing sources.

    It's going to be a really interesting year for mobile. Having tackled Android, I'll do my thoughts on iOS next (and it's not coming out all roses there either).

    Antonio Rodriguez is a general partner with Matrix Partners. This post originally appeared on his blog.