四个有望实现的荒唐创意

银行业

美国银行巨头进一步扩张

    美国的大型银行自作自受，眼下正在舔舐着金融危机带来的创伤。眼前的情形很难让我们相信，在未来的十年内，美国的大型银行将进一步扩大规模和势力。但是，这确实是行业分析师们的预见到的情形。

    等到欧元危机平息，美国解决抵押市场的混乱状态之后，摩根大通银行（J.P. Morgan）等大型银行将进入扩张的新时代。诚然，新出台的法规将增加它们的成本，压缩一度十分丰厚的营业利润，从而导致这些最大型银行的增长放缓。但是，这些法规也使其他银行无力挑战这些行业巨头的地位。高盛投资银行（Goldman Sachs）和摩根士丹利（J.P. Morgan）等投资银行将无法故技重施，继续利用杠杆比率来刺激产生收入的交易，最终，它们将沦为银行业巨头的猎物。

    其实，我们不妨把未来的银行想象成受到政府高度监管的公用事业：它们将持有大量的资金，勉强维持盈利，并且会聘用经理人来回避风险。如果果真如此，未来的银行将会进入庞大但缺乏生机的新阶段。

    ——斯科特•森多维斯基

Banking

Big U.S. banks get even bigger

    Looking at them now, nursing self-inflicted wounds from the financial crisis, it seems hard to believe that America's big banks could be even bigger and stronger a decade from now. But that's the scenario many industry analysts envision.

    Once the euro crisis clears and America fixes its mortgage mess, giants like J.P. Morgan will enter a new era of expansion. Yes, new regulations will impose higher costs and reduce once-lucrative trading profits, resulting in far slower growth for the largest players. But those regulations will also make it tougher for others to challenge their top positions. Investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley won't be able to use the levels of leverage they once did to boost revenue-generating trading operations, making them prey for the megabanks.

    Think of tomorrow's banks as highly regulated public utilities: They'll hold lots of capital, eke out profits, and hire managers who shun risk. Welcome to the big and boring future of banking.

    --Scott Cendrowski