Facebook会重蹈雅虎覆辙吗？

    整个科技界都屏住了呼吸，等待着Facebook下周提交首次公开募股（IPO）申请。我本人也非常兴奋，因为Facebook是头不折不扣的巨兽，它彻底变革了互联网。

    可是，刚刚过去的这个周末里，我反复思考Facebook的情况后，不禁产生了一种不安的感觉：该公司的成功似乎……只是昙花一现。尽管有些奇怪，可在某些方面，Facebook让我想起雅虎（Yahoo）。不是现在的雅虎，而是过去的雅虎，我怀疑，Facebook在未来十年中会不会像雅虎一样衰落。

    下面列出我在这家公司身上发现的主要的薄弱之处：

    1. 网络碎片化。Facebook的成功很大程度上依赖于它最大规模地积聚互联网用户群，理解及货币化这一用户群的能力。受网络效应推动，社交网络的发展应该会日益蓬勃。可是，我很难相信， Facebook十年之后的页面访问量还能独霸天下。我想我们已经看到了一种趋势：Facebook被当成人们身份与关系的大仓库，而深层次的互动转而在主旨更明确、分化更严重的社区进行。分享照片最好经由Instagram，产品的社交管理可在Pinterest上进行，自我表达通过Tumblr这样的平台最合适。没错，Facebook或多或少也具备上述功能，而且可以模仿上述公司，可是，瑞士军刀式兼顾一切产品的模式很难获得长远胜利。

    2. 移动性不够强。我认为，移动互联网将使网络碎片化趋势进一步加快，Facebook面临的一部分挑战将由苹果（Apple）创造的应用生态系统的规则所驱动。不过总的来说，Facebook的主要挑战在于：它并非为“移动优先”而打造，而我们已经（或者说很快将会）身处一个移动优先的世界。我认为Facebook这样的大公司要想在移动领域达到同样的垄断水平，将是非常困难的。Facebook在社交网络领域抢占了谷歌（Google）的地盘，正因为后者并无天然社交性（而雅虎就差得更远了）；同理我预计，从一开始就基于移动、分布式计算设备背景而打造的产品，也能迅速从Facebook那里攻城略地。

    3. 广告效果。Facebook的收入颇为可观，但大多依赖于广告，可对于该网站作为广告媒介的效果到底如何，我们还没有定论。社交广告可能很有吸引力，但观众的购买意愿很低，这点与显示广告相似。我还觉得，作为一种品牌广告媒介，Facebook现在的广告效果还有很大问题。你们记得今年有什么与Facebook深度整合、真正有影响力的品牌广告营销攻势吗？我没印象，却记得好几个主要通过YouTube和Twitter进行的广告活动。最后，Facebook尚未开发出一套有价值、有拓展性的、可用于Facebook之外的广告产品。机会总比批评多，可如果该公司无法维持在这些领域的领先地位，除1和2两条外，它还将面临更多挑战。

    The entire tech world is waiting with baited breath for the filing of Facebook's IPO next week. I'm excited – the company is an absolute monster and has completely transformed the web.

    But, as I've reflected on Facebook this past weekend, I can't help shake a nagging feeling that the company's success feels somehow…fleeting. In some weird ways, Facebook makes me think a bit of Yahoo (YHOO). Not the Yahoo of today, but the Yahoo of the past. And I wonder if Facebook will see a similar decline over the next 10 years.

    Here are the major vulnerabilities that I see:

    1. Network fragmentation. Facebook's success is largely based on its ability to aggregate the biggest audience on the Internet and understand and monetize that audience. Social networks should be incredibly robust because of network effects. But I really have a hard time believing that Facebook will continue to dominate the pageviews 10 years from now. I think we are already seeing that while Facebook serves as a great repository of one's identity and relationships, deep engagement is starting to happen in more targeted, fragmented communities. Photo sharing is done best on Instagram. Social curation of products on Pinterest. Self-expression on platforms like Tumblr. Sure, Facebook participates in this activity somewhat and could copy these companies, but Swiss Army knives almost never win long term.

    2. Not natively mobile. I think the mobile Internet will further accelerate the trend of network fragmentation. Part of Facebook's challenges will be driven by the rules of the app ecosystem that Apple has created. But mostly, Facebook's main challenge is that it was not built in a mobile-first context. We are in (or will soon be) in a mobile-first world, and I think it's hard to expect a large company like Facebook to own that domain in the same way. Just as Google (GOOG) ceded ground to Facebook because it was not natively social (and Yahoo was way, way worse), I can see Facebook ceding ground pretty quickly to products that are built with a mobile, distributed computing context in mind from the beginning.

    3. Advertising effectiveness. Facebook's impressive revenue relies largely on advertising. But I think the jury is still out on how transformative it as as an advertising medium. Social advertising can be pretty compelling, but intent is pretty low, much like display advertising. I also think that Facebook falls pretty far short currently on its effectiveness as a brand advertising medium. Do you remember any really impactful brand campaigns this year that were deeply integrated with Facebook? I don't, but do remember several that were largely driven through YouTube and Twitter. Finally, Facebook hasn't yet developed a meaningful off-Facebook advertising product that has scale. These are more opportunities than criticisms, but if the company doesn't maintain leadership in these areas, I see it as a further challenge in the face of #1 and #2.