微软拨云见日

    微软（Microsoft）从来都是众矢之的。事实上，自从Windows王朝开始被竞争对手的技术所取代，比尔•盖茨就远离了他亲手创建的这家公司，而将一个费力不讨好的任务丢给了首席执行官史蒂夫•鲍尔默：在一个日益由苹果（Apple）、谷歌（Google）、和Facebook等公司说了算的行业竭尽全力为微软觅得一席之地。

    投资者对这一点认识得尤为清醒，他们甚至曾多次呼吁鲍尔默辞职。2010年和2011年，微软股票表现远低于市场平均水平。两年间，其股票价值下降了15%，而道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial Average）却上升了17%。此外，尽管微软在此期间的市盈率始终保持在10上下，远远低低于道琼斯的平均市盈率，微软股票仍然逊色于入选道琼斯指数的其他股票。

    2012年，这种情形开始转变。今年，到目前为止，微软股票上涨了19%，而道琼斯工业平均指数只上升了5%。此外，微软股票价值始终稳定在32美元/股的水平上下，这是自2008年年初以来，其股票首次恢复到这一水平。出现现象的主要原因应该是微软最终成功地说服了投资者，让他们相信自己在后PC世界里仍然会有上佳的表现。

    当然，微软不会成为后PC世界的王者，但它也不会落伍。它不过是从领跑的位置移到了队伍中的另外一个位置而已。投资者们曾忧心忡忡，担心平板电脑和智能手机的兴起会让微软一步步地衰落下去。相反，微软似乎正在对自己进行重新定位，以谋求未来数年内稳定而温和的增长。

    这似乎也是华尔街今年以来始终在向微软传递的信息。几十年来，Windows软件销售始终是微软营业收入的摇钱树。上个季度，这块收入为47.4亿美元，下降了6%。这很大程度上是由于上网本的销售额下降了70%所致。如果换在过去，仅仅这一项就足已成为拖累股票增长的不利因素，但上述数字公布以来，微软的股票反而稳步增长了8%。

    原因何在？首先，其他部门的业绩增长完全弥补了Windows销售额的下降。娱乐及设备部门（包括Xbox游戏机）的收入增长了15%，达到42.4亿美元。服务器及工具部门的收入增长了11%，达到47.7亿美元。换言之，上季度，服务器收入增长迅速，已超过Windows的收入；而且，娱乐收入同样也快赶上Windows收入了。

    因此，即使Windows业务濒临衰亡，微软也早有打算，另辟财源，确保其他业务的收入和利润持续增长。而且，现在就下断论说Windows即将灭亡未免为时过早，很可能事实并非如此。事实上，这块业务也许很快便会再次呈现持续多年的增长之势。

    Microsoft will always have its detractors. The truth is that Bill Gates moved away from the company he founded just as the Windows dynasty was being supplanted by rival technologies. That left CEO Steve Ballmer with the thankless task of trying to find a place for Microsoft in an industry where companies like Apple, Google and Facebook seemed to be increasingly setting the agenda.

    That sense of disenchantment has been especially strong among investors, who have repeatedly called for Ballmer to resign. In 2010 and 2011, Microsoft (MSFT) significantly underperformed the broader market, declining 15% over the two-year period while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 17%. And it underperformed its Dow peers even though it had a price-earnings ratio that was consistently near 10, well below the Dow's average PE ratio.

    In 2012, things are changing. So far this year, Microsoft's stock is up 19%, against a 5% rise in the Dow, and it's been flirting with the $32 a share level it hasn't seen since early 2008. And the biggest reason seems to be that Microsoft is finally persuading investors that it's going to be just fine in the post-PC world.

    Of course, Microsoft won't dominate the post-PC world. Neither will it be irrelevant. It' has changed its seat at the head of the table for just another seat at the table. Investors had feared that the rise of tablets and smartphones meant a slow decline for the company. Instead, Microsoft seems to be positioning itself for years of steady, moderate growth.

    That also seems to be the message that Wall Street has been sending to Microsoft this year. In the most recent quarter, revenue from Windows software, for decades the biggest source of Microsoft revenue, fell 6% last quarter to $4.74 billion, due largely to a 70% decline in netbook sales. In the past that alone would have been bad news, but Microsoft's stock has steadily risen 8% since that disclosure.

    Why? First, because other divisions are more than making up for the slowdown in Windows sales. Revenue from entertainment and devices (which includes the Xbox game console) rose 15% to $4.24 billion. And revenue from servers and tools rose 11% to $4.77 billion. In other words, server revenue grew fast enough to eclipse Windows revenue last quarter. And entertainment revenue is close to surpassing it as well.

    So even if Windows were a dying franchise, Microsoft has laid plans to keep its revenue and profits growing in other areas. And while it's too early to say decisively, Windows may not be a dying franchise. It may in fact be one about to see renewed growth for years.