亚马逊优惠服务放长线钓大鱼

    2005年，为了进一步刺激消费者的购买行为，亚马逊公司（Amazon）推出了Prime服务。用户只需缴纳79美元的年费，就能享受网购商品两日送达的服务，而且不限产品件数。在此基础之上，亚马逊还发起了另外几项惠及消费者的活动。去年公司推出Prime即时视频服务，这是一种与在线影片租赁提供商Netflix公司类似的无限量电影电视流服务。公司还创立了针对Kindle用户的免费数字公共图书馆，提供免费的电子书精选，但只有Prime服务会员才可使用。后来公司宣布每位购买Kindle Fire平板电脑的用户都能免费获赠一个月的会员服务。亚马逊Prime服务的目标很明确，它已经成为公司向平板电脑、流媒体等多种行业秘密进军的“特洛伊木马”。公司首席执行官杰夫•贝佐斯为这个雄心勃勃的扩展战略下了很大赌注，Prime服务很有可能是公司成立17年以来最冒险的一次行动；当然，这也是最有发展前景的一次行动。

    由于亚马逊未透露Prime服务的具体数据，所以目前的用户数量尚不清楚。坊间的猜测从300万到1,000万都有。【彭博社（Bloomberg）在上周一份报告中指出，真实的增长量会低于亚马逊自己透露的数据。】富国银行（Well’s Fargo）分析师马特•尼莫表示，Prime服务会员的消费额是这项服务推出之前的三倍之多。信息技术分析公司Forrester的分析师苏查利塔•马尔普鲁称：“亚马逊希望潜移默化地让人们逐渐增加消费，并用其他业务来补偿盈利。”（亚马逊拒绝就此报道发表评论。）

    几乎可以肯定的是，亚马逊为Prime服务投入了大量资金。Piper Jaffray投资银行分析师吉恩•蒙斯特认为，亚马逊为Prime服务目前投入的钱要比赚的钱还多，平均在每位用户身上要投入11美元。此外，尼莫还表示，公司在净运输成本上损失了约24亿美元，其中很大一部分源于Prime服务的运送。亚马逊的举动表明，他们为了适应公司扩张步伐，并不在乎利润率降低，这着实让某些投资者胆战心惊。上个季度，虽然通过对新销售库房加大投资，销售额增加了35%，但是利润暴跌了58%，降至1.77亿美元。公司在2011年度报告中写道：“我们认为给消费者提供低价服务对于公司未来的成功相当重要，降价销售的一个途径就是送货优惠服务。”

    忠诚用户送货项目的市场机会似乎很大。有预测称，2,000千万到3,000万个美国家庭愿意购买类似Prime的服务。两年前成立的Shoprunner电子商务公司是亚马逊Prime服务的唯一主要竞争者。该公司由电子商务软件公司GSI Commerce和包括玩具反斗城（Toys 'R Us）和无线电器材公司（Radio Shack）在内的40多家批发零售连锁实体店进行合作。尽管Shoprunner公司去年的销售额比前一年增长了一亿美元，合作零售商的数量也已经扩大到60家，但分析师认为Prime服务仍然占据着绝对优势。此外，有报道称谷歌公司（Google）也准备推出与Prime类似的服务。

    Launched in 2005, Amazon Prime aimed to get customers to spend more. For $79 a year, members got free two-day delivery on an unlimited number of items. Amazon sweetened the pot from there. Last year, it introduced Prime Instant Videos, an unlimited movie and TV streaming service similar to Netflix. It also created the Kindle Owners Lending Library, a digital public library that makes select ebooks available for free. Only Prime members got access. Then, the company announced that each of its Kindle Fire tablets would come with a free month of membership in the box. Prime's real purpose is now clear: it has become the retail giant's Trojan horse into a broad range of businesses, from tablets to streaming media. As CEO Jeff Bezos doubles down on an ambitious growth strategy, Prime may very well be Amazon's riskiest gamble in the company's 17 year history. Not to mention its most promising.

    Because Amazon does not break out Prime data, the number of subscribers remains a mystery. Estimates skew wildly between three million and ten million. (A Bloomberg report last week claimed growth was more sluggish than Amazon has let on.) What's clear is that Prime members spend, upwards of three times what they would without the service, according to Well's Fargo (WFC) analyst Matt Nemer. "Amazon (AMZN) wants to steal wallet share away and use other parts of its business to subsidize profitability," adds Forrester (FORR) analyst Sucharita Mulpuru. (Amazon declined to comment for this story.)

    Also nearly certain, that Prime is costing Amazon. Piper Jaffray (PJC) analyst Gene Munster believes Amazon is spending more money than it earns on the program -- by as much as $11 per user. What's more, the company lost some $2.4 billion last year in net shipping costs, a large part of that attributable to Prime shipping says Nemer. Amazon has shown it doesn't mind lower margins to accommodate expansion, spooking some investors. In the most recent quarter, profits plunged 58% to $177 million, despite a 35% jump in sales, due to heavy investments in new sales fulfillment centers. "We believe that offering low prices to our customers is fundamental to our future success, and one way we offer lower prices is through shipping offers," the company wrote in its 2011 annual report.

    The market opportunity for a loyalty shipping program appears quite large. By one estimate, between 20 and 30 million U.S. households may be willing to pay for something like Prime. Shoprunner, a counteroffensive launched two years ago by GSI Commerce in partnership with over 40 brick and mortar chains like Toys 'R Us and Radio Shack (RSH), remains the only other major competitor. Though Shoprunner drove more than $100 million in sales last year and now works with 60 retailers, analysts believe Prime remains dominant. To wit, Google (GOOG) reportedly wants to get into the game with a Prime-like service of its own.