思考：未来计算机迈向新的里程碑
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我们正进入一个全新的计算时代。 过去半个世纪里，我们已经历了一系列的计算时代。古典计算时代始于上世纪50年代，并在六七十年代开始加速发展。古典计算机阶段，大型主机进行一系列行动，使得银行、保险公司以及制造企业等大型机构的效率得以大幅提升。通用微型计算机在上世纪70年代风行，紧随其后出现的是功能强大的UNIX工作站。随后，个人电脑在1981年凭借IBM个人电脑大获成功，并迅速发展为客户服务器计算机模式。互联网在上世纪90年代再一次颠覆了整个产业。 尽管取得了上述进步，但我们的系统已演进到高度复杂的形态，单单维护自身现有的计算机系统就需要各机构投入信息技术预算的70%甚至更多。结果导致只剩下很少的预算可用于想出创新方法来使用计算机技术。更重要的是，IBM以及行业分析机构IDC 近来的一份研究显示，三分之二的企业信息技术项目都超出了预算，且落后于进度。 哪些需要作出改变？ 公司与个人一样，希望只要一连上计算机系统，它们就能立即开始运转。它们希望软硬件能立即协同工作。它们希望一切事务得到简化并实现自动化。好消息是，技术将在现有基础之上继续发展，而发展方式可能令人吃惊：也就是能“学习”的系统以及能“思考”的系统。 |
We're entering a whole new era of computing. Over the past five decades, we've moved through a series of eras of computing. The era of classical computing began in the 1950s and picked up speed in the 1960s and 1970s. This classical computing, where mainframes operate in a series of actions, enabled large organizations -- such as banks, insurance companies and manufacturing companies -- to operate with greater efficiency. Mini-computers became the rage in the 1970s, followed immediately by high function UNIX workstations. Then, personal computers took off in 1981 with IBM (IBM) PC and quickly evolved into the client-server computing model. The World Wide Web changed the industry yet again throughout the 1990s. Despite all the advances, we've evolved highly complex systems that require organizations to spend 70% or more of their IT budgets on just maintaining their existing computer systems. There's very little left over to come up with innovative ways to use much of that technology. What's more, two-thirds of corporate IT projects are delivered over budget and behind scheduled, according to a recent study by IBM and industry analyst firm IDC. What needs to change? Much like individuals, companies want to be able to plug in their computing systems and have them work "out of the box." They want the hardware and software to work together immediately. They want things simplified and automated. The good news is that technology will evolve on top of the technology base in ways that will likely be startling: systems that can "learn" and systems that can "think." |
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思考是人类独有的本领。坦率地说，科学事实上并没有揭示人类思考的奥秘。我们大脑中有一种非凡的本领，能将某一事物与其他事物联系起来。比如说，当我们互相交谈时，我们的头脑在我们努力解决问题时不断跳跃。我们能看到模型、关系以及关联。人类头脑的运行方式尚不太清楚，因为它们不像电脑一样，依次审查事物。 全新形式的计算机将不断涌现。计算机正渗透到我们工作生活中的点点滴滴、方方面面。计算机识别物体的能力越来越强。虽然计算机没有眼睛，但人们可以通过外部接入的设备向它输入识别信息，而计算机可以借此识别人物、方位地点或各种东西。计算机还会在许多方面化作无形，以难以预料的方式成为世界的一部分，但有一点很确定，那就是科技一定会更多地出现在人们生活中。将来，我们身边会出现各种计算机，能帮助我们更加高效地处理各类事务。也许有一天，计算机将和人类的大脑一样，也会形成一种特定的联系。 |
Thinking is something uniquely human. And frankly, science does not really understand how we do it. We have this extraordinary ability in our brains to associate things with one another. As we talk with one another, for instance, our brains leap ahead as we work on solving problems. We see patterns and relationships and associations. It's not quite clear how the human brain works because it does not go through everything in a series, as computers do. New computing paradigms are going to emerge. Computing is going into everything, everywhere. Computers are getting better at recognizing things. Computers cannot see, but you will be able to put devices that can feed recognition information into the computer, which can identify people, places or things. Computing will also become in many ways invisible and part of the world in ways that are hard to predict -- except to say that technology will abound even more. It's going to surround us in a way that makes everything that we do more efficient and more effective. There may be a time in the future when computers incorporate a certain type of associations as humans do. |
