黑莓没落之谜（节选）

    五月初，如果有外星人在美国奥兰多的万豪酒店（Marriott Hotel）登陆地球，他们可能会以为，黑莓就是地球上最先进、最伟大的技术。因为这里到处都是黑莓“信徒”，狂按亮黑色智能手机的键盘。墙上悬挂着横幅，颂扬黑莓手机卓越的安全性能和“超快的”网络浏览器。数千人正襟危坐，听会议领袖动态研究公司CEO托斯滕•海因斯侃侃而谈，揭开未来的面纱。

    然而，如果外星朋友们细心一点，很快就会发现，他们看到的并不是一个传统的商业大会，而是RIM开发者大会——这些开发者都是顽固派中的顽固派。更糟糕的是，许多与会者口袋里都偷偷装着苹果（Apple）iPhone手机和谷歌（Google）的安卓（Android）设备，活脱脱一副走私贩的摸样。海因斯做着枯燥的演说，而与会者在下面窃窃私语，表达自己的失望之情。他们肯定意识到，实际上，黑莓设备已经不是行业的龙头老大，而是在为了生存苦苦挣扎。

    RIM的悲惨经历像极了科幻小说。最初，RIM从加拿大的一潭死水发展成科技行业巨头，短短几年时间就确立了在智能手机市场的主导地位。在达沃斯和华盛顿特区，黑莓设备成为全球精英人士的必备工具，而对于在东京银座（Ginza）购物的年轻人和旧金山的时髦人士来说，黑莓已经成为身份地位的象征。三年前，RIM利润增长率达到了惊人的84%，因此《财富》杂志（Fortune）将其评为全球增长最快的公司。然而时过境迁，经过几个月苦苦挣扎后，RIM本周宣布，公司已经聘请了摩根大通（JPMorgan）和加拿大皇家投资银行（RBC Capital）对其战略方案进行评估，差不多等于宣告我们所知道的那个RIM已经走到头了。昔日的庞然大物正在加速衰落。RIM到底发生了什么？

    形势的变化让人猝不及防，但其实RIM的衰落是一个长期的过程。与2008年最高点时相比，RIM公司的股价下跌了90%。iPhone面世至今已有5年时间，但RIM与其他手机制造商不同，至今仍然没有推出拿的出手的竞争性产品。RIM一直拒绝承认iPhone和安卓设备日益高涨的人气，结果浪费了宝贵的时间，同时，也失去了消费者和开发者的支持。更糟糕的是，RIM无法再对IT经理们施加任何限制，越来越多的IT经理开始允许员工上班时携带自己喜欢的设备。

    直到现在，RIM的回应仍是一成不变：黑莓10系统。由于新操作系统面世的日期一推再推，再好听的话重复多了也成了空话。安装黑莓10操作系统的设备预计在今年晚些时候才能上市。“这就像一列已经出站的火车。恶魔已经逃出生天，再想将他关回笼子已无可能，”麦克•阿布拉姆斯基说。阿布拉姆斯基曾担任加拿大皇家投资银行市场分析师，曾连续十多年关注RIM的发展情况。

    典型的救世主以及即将面世的黑莓10测试设备。

    If aliens had disembarked at Orlando's Marriott Hotel in early May, they would have probably thought the BlackBerry the latest and greatest technology on Earth. Everywhere, devotees tapped away at their glossy black smartphones' keyboards. Banners hanging on the walls extolled the Blackberry's superior security features and "amazingly fast" Internet browser. Thousands lined up to hear the confab's leader -- Research in Motion CEO Thorsten Heins -- unveil the future.

    Observant visitors might quickly have realized they didn't land at a typical business convention, though, but at a conference for RIM (RIMM) developers -- the diehard of the diehard. And, worse, that many of the attendees also had Apple (AAPL) iPhones and Google (GOOG) Android devices stashed in their pockets, like contraband. They might have even heard the whispers of disappointment ripple through the crowd in response to Heins' meager announcements. They would have surely realized that, in fact, the BlackBerry is not ascendant -- but that it is fighting for its life.

    RIM's woebegone story is the stuff of science-fiction epic. A technology juggernaut that emerged from a sleepy Canadian backwater, RIM came to dominate the smartphone industry in a few years. Its BlackBerry managed to become an indispensable tool of the global elite in Davos and Washington D.C. as well as a status symbol to tweens shopping Tokyo's Ginza and San Francisco hipsters alike. Just three years ago, Fortune named RIM the world's fastest growing company, as it expanded profits at a monster rate of 84%. But after months of increasingly dire struggle, RIM announced this week that it had engaged JPMorgan (JPM) and RBC Capital to "review" its strategic options, all but confirming that the end of RIM as we know it is finally at hand. The behemoth appears to be wasting away at time-lapse speed. What happened?

    The plunge seems precipitous, but the downfall has been a longtime coming. RIM's stock has plunged some 90% since its 2008 high. Five years have passed since the iPhone came out and, unlike most other phonemakers, RIM still doesn't have a viable competitor to sell. It wasted time denying the growing appeal of iPhones and Android devices, losing favor with consumers and developers in the meantime. Even worse, it no longer has a stranglehold on IT managers, a growing number of which are now letting employees bring their device of choice to work.

    Until now, RIM's response has been the same: BlackBerry 10. As delays of the new operating system piled up, the refrain began to ring hollow. Devices powered by BlackBerry 10 aren't expected out until later this year. "This is a train that's left the station," says Mike Abramsky, a former RBC Capital Markets analyst who spent over a decade covering RIM. "You just can't put that genie back in the bottle."

    A prototype savior. A test device of upcoming Blackberry 10 models.