Facebook的命运：有人看好，有人唱衰

    Facebook的拥趸认为，Facebook有长远计划将其社交图谱整合进智能手机和平板电脑中。为了正确实施这一战略，Facebook目前行事颇为稳健。它正在构建一系列大有前途的互联网资产，例如照片分享软件Instagram、Face.com，而且Facebook还有可能收购Opera浏览器开发商。Facebook的社交网络很有可能与苹果（Apple）今后版本的iOS移动平台深度整合。

    反对派则针对Facebook的诸多细微之处予以回击。Facebook将如何在不惹恼用户的情况下，把凌乱不堪的赞助广告安排进智能手机屏幕？Facebook都不能将大广告主留在该网站，又如何能争取到大品牌购买移动广告？还要最重要的一点，在竞争激烈的移动操作系统市场，Facebook将如何牢牢占据一席之地。尽管Facebook有许多方案，但最好的方案往往需要好几年才能奏效。

    Facebook走向究竟如何？是成为长期统治社交网络的一代巨头，还是成为昙花一现的另一个MySpace？无论是乐观主义者，还是悲观主义者，他们对Faceboo未来的推断都是言之有理的。究竟谁的预测将会实现，在很大程度上并不取决于Facebook如何应对，而是取决于该公司解决自身面临的挑战有多快。

    如果时间充裕，那么Facebook完全有能力、有资金以及庞大的用户群去解决所有问题。但是，时间拖得越长，Facebook就越难保住其霸主地位。而且，Facebook股价萎靡不振的时间越长，其精英员工们受到的外界诱惑就越大，他们可能会投奔另一家欣欣向荣的新创企业，或是自谋出路。

    这是一个值得担心的问题，因为最有可能的结果是，Facebook将在未来几个季度继续面临挑战。该公司将需要这么长的时间来为自己下一阶段的增长奠定基础。好消息是，到明年，Facebook将有很多新想法。坏消息是，对网络界而言，一年是很长的一段时间。

    本文作者凯文•凯莱赫常驻旧金山湾区。

    The bullish case argues that Facebook has a long-term plan to integrate its social graph onto smartphones and tablets, that the company isn't rushing so that it can get this strategy right and that it's building a stable of promising web properties like Instagram, Face.com and possibly the maker of the Opera browser. Facebook's social network is likely to be integrated closelyin future versions of iOS, Apple's (AAPL) mobile platform.

    The bearish case against Facebook responds that the devil is in the details. How will the company fit its cluttery sponsored ads onto a smartphone screen without angering users? How can it woo big brands over to mobile ads when it's having trouble keeping big advertisers on its site? And above all, how can Facebook get a strong foothold in the competitive mobile OS space? It has several options, but the best ones will require several years of work.

    Which Facebook will prevail? The one that will dominate social networking for years or the one that proves to be a glorious flash in the pan? Both the optimistic and the pessimistic takes on Facebook's future have merit. Which one proves right will depend not so much on how the company responds than on how quickly it can address the challenges before it.

    Given enough time, Facebook has the talent, the cash and the huge user base to solve all of these problems. But the longer it takes to solve them, the harder it will be to retain its dominance. And the longer Facebook's stock price stays down, the more tempted its talented staff will be to exit to work at another growing startup, or to form one.

    That's a concern because the most likely outcome is that Facebook will continue to face challenges for the next several quarters. The company will need that much time to lay the groundwork for its next phase of growth. The good news is that, by next year, Facebook will have a lot of new ideas. The bad news is that a year on the web is a very long time.

    Kevin Kelleher is a writer in the San Francisco Bay Area.