2016：平板之年

    平板电脑出货量有望在2016年超过笔记本电脑，而移动PC的总出货量在2017年有望实现强劲增长。根据NPD DisplaySearch最新按季发布的移动PC出货及预测报告，移动PC出货量将从2012年的3.47亿部增长至2017年的8.09亿部以上。

    拉动这一轮增长的将是以苹果（Apple）iPad为代表的平板电脑，不过，这并不意味着传统笔记本市场会急剧萎缩。传统笔记本市场仍然有望获得不小增长。NPD的报告预测，传统笔记本电脑的销量将从2012年的2.08亿部增长至2017年3.93亿部，而平板设备涨幅更大，将从目前的1.21亿部暴涨至4.16亿部。拉动增长的关键在于平板电脑开始被北美、西欧和日本等成熟市场普遍接纳。NPD集团高级分析师理查德•西摩称：“笔记本市场非常健康，我们的预测显示，它的增长率将达到两位数。推动平板电脑普及的原因之一是越来越多的厂商开始涉足这一市场。”

    虽然不少人认为平板电脑将取代笔记本电脑，不过从目前来看，这个趋势并不明显。西摩称：“我们并没有观察到任何迹象显示笔记本电脑就快玩完了。由于笔记本电脑变得越来越便宜，所以该市场仍在不断增长。”虽然平板电脑增长迅猛，甚至已经超过了传统笔记本，但其地位仍是“次要设备”，目前的平板电脑还无法完全取代笔记本。调研公司弗雷斯特研究公司（Forrester Research）的高级分析师萨拉•罗特曼•艾普斯认为：“所谓后PC时代实际上是PC+（PC plus）时代。平板电脑和智能手机只是额外的附加设备。”

    除了传统计算机制造商外，其它许多公司也都在制造平板电脑。弗雷斯特早前预测称，美国个人平板电脑市场的增速将高于之前的预期。这在很大程度上得益于亚马逊（Amazon）和巴诺（Barnes & Noble）等公司扩展了平板市场。

    另一个值得考虑的因素是，只有将类似PC的平板电脑计算在内，才能说平板电脑的销量超过了笔记本电脑。调研公司IHS iSuppli显示器和平板部高级经理罗达•亚历山大强调称：“平板电脑市场尚处于发展初期，发展方向可能多种多样。不过，人们给出的销量各不相同。”

    事实上，IHS iSuppli的统计数字与NPD及弗雷斯特都不一样。IHS iSuppli预测到2016年，多媒体平板电脑的出货量将达到3.11亿部，而PC平板电脑的出货量为4,900万部。整个笔记本市场将仍然保持3.22亿部水平，其中包括平板电脑和传统的非平板笔记本电脑。当然，这样的统计更加让人摸不着头脑——因为有些平板电脑是笔记本，而显然，并非所有笔记本都是平板。亚历山大解释说：“划分的依据是，搭载ARM处理器和移动操作系统的平板属于多媒体平板；搭载X86处理器和全功能桌面操作系统的则属于PC平板。”

    就这一点而言，微软（Microsoft）现在可谓做好了两手准备，针对PC平板和笔记本市场的Windows 8系统，以及针对多媒体平板的Windows RT系统。亚历山大补充说：“公司和企业客户需要Windows 8系统来兼容之前的产品，而这样的需求已成为微软的沉重负担。苹果和其他公司能针对移动平台开发出更快更灵活的系统，他们无需承担任何历史包袱，所以他们能够更快地进行创新。”

    Shipments of tablet computers will surpass notebook shipments in 2016, but overall mobile PC shipments will see strong growth by 2017. According to the latest NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report, mobile PC shipments will grow from 347 million units in 2012 to more than 809 million by 2017.

    Driving this growth will be tablet PCs, such as Apple's (AAPL) iPad, but this doesn't mean that traditional notebooks will be slammed shut. These are also expected to see growth in the same period. NPD's forecast predicts that traditional notebooks will actually increase from 208 million in 2012 to 393 million by 2017, while tablet devices will increase from 121 million to 416 million. A key driver for this is adoption in mature markets, including North American, Western Europe and Japan. "The notebook market is very healthy, and our forecast shows double-digit growth," said Richard Shim, senior analyst at NPD Group. "What is also driving tablet adoption is that there are more players getting in to the market."

    Despite some claims that tablets will replace notebooks this does not appear to be the course at present. "By no means do we see that notebooks are dead," Shim says. "The notebook market continues to grow because the platform is becoming less expensive." The growth of tablets, and even the outpacing of traditional notebooks, will continue as these remain a second device rather than a fully fledged replacement of the latter. "The post-PC era is really PC plus," said Sarah Rotman Epps, senior analyst for Forrester Research. "Tablets and smartphones are additives devices."

    These devices are also coming from additional sources beyond the traditional computer manufacturers. Forrester had predicted earlier this that the U.S. consumer tablet market is growing faster than previously forecast, in large part as Amazon (AMZN) and Barnes & Noble (BN) expand the addressable market for these devices.

    The other factor that is worth considering is that tablets are surpassing notebooks, only when PC tablets are factored in. "The tablet market is in its infancy, and it could go in many different directions," emphasized Rhoda Alexander, senior manager for monitors and tablets at IHS iSuppli. "The numbers however are all over the map with what people are saying."

    In fact, the numbers from IHS iSuppli differ from those of NPD and Forrester. IHS iSuppli forecasts 311 million media tablets to be sold in 2016 along with 49 million PC tablets, while the notebook market will hold steady at 322 million including tablet and non-tablet PC notebooks. This of course only creates more confusion -- as some tablets are notebooks, but obviously not all notebooks are tablets. "The distinction that we see is that a media tablets run on the ARM processor and feature a mobile operating system," explained Alexander, "where as the PC tablets still feature an X86 processor and full desktop OS."

    Microsoft (MSFT) is hedging its bets in this regard, with Windows 8 for the PC tablet and notebooks market, and the Windows RT operating system for the media tablets. "Corporate and enterprise customers need the legacy support that Windows 8 will provide," added Alexander. "This has been a hardship Microsoft has faced, as Apple and other companies have been able to work with faster and more dynamic OS for the mobile platforms. But they make no hesitations about being legacy free. That has allowed them to innovate more quickly."