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第二十一讲:新乱世

第二十一讲:新乱世

《财富》(中文版) 2011-04-12
我们的余生都会很不稳定、不确定,会被快速而巨大的力量所左右,而我们自身无力掌控。很可能这是我们余生将要一直面临的状态。

高德思先说说您手头的项目,我想是一本写了六年的书。六年是做研究的时间。

吉姆·柯林斯我和同事莫顿·汉森的共同工作开始于2002年,我在这里不会说得太多,我能够提供更多的应该说是一个问题。莫顿是我的合作伙伴,我们的项目开始于2002年。

高德思我很好奇的是你们在关注什么。

吉姆·柯林斯当我们结束之后,我和莫顿都下了很大功夫把书稿整合起来。我们去年完成了研究,对我来说最有趣之处在于我有幸从头至尾参与其中。我想这是因为我一直认为这个世界是不稳定的,我自己的成长经历让我觉得不稳定,还有许多其他的事情令我觉得这个世界似乎不太稳定。所以这项工作的前提就是,我们的余生都会很不稳定、不确定,会被快速而巨大的力量所左右,而我们自身无力掌控。

我想说的清楚一些。这和讨论衰退期是很不一样的,衰退更容易应对。可以想象一下哪一个更难应付:是不确定、不稳定、瞬息万变、但是充满机遇的某种力量;还是不确定、不稳定、快速变化着的危机。危机更好应对,因为你该做什么是很清楚的,而前者更模糊些。所以这不是危急时刻与非危急时刻的比较。

高德思对。

 

   

Thomas D. Gorman: Switching gears for a moment to your current project, a new book in the works for six years, I believe.

Jim Collins: That's how long the research took, we started in 2002 with my college, Morton Hansen, and if I mention that we have been doing research, I won't talk too much about it here, but I'll give you more of a question. But, Morton, is my collaborator, it's H-a-n-s-e-n, so we started the project in 2002.

Thomas D. Gorman: What are you looking at? That's what I'm curious about.

Jim Collins: Well, this is probably, when we finish up, writing at this time, Morton and I have been working very hard on pulling it all together. We finished the research last year and I think for me, in some ways it is the most interesting question that I've had the privilege to be involved with so far. And I think it's because I have always viewed the world as an unstable place, myself, my own upbringing felt unstable, a variety of other things that have made the world seem unstable. And so the premise of this work is that, the rest of our lives will be defined by very high degrees of instability and uncertainty and fast moving big forces out of our control.

Now, let me be very clear, this is very different than talking about recession times, actually, those are easy times to me, if you actually think about which is actually harder, times of uncertainty, instability and fast moving forces that are full of robust opportunity versus uncertain, unstable, fast moving and crisis. Crises are easier to manage, it's fairly clear what you have to do, this is more ambiguous. So, this isn't anything about crisis time versus not.

Thomas D. Gorman: Right.

 

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