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专栏 - 苹果2_0

苹果请柬暗藏玄机:新推iPhone可能只有一款

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年09月29日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
苹果观察者们正努力揣摩苹果下周特别活动邀请函中的深意。

来源:苹果公司

    假如有人认为——周二很多人都是这么看的——苹果(Apple)邀请函的图标用心良苦,一如苹果对电脑屏幕图标的态度一样。果真如此,那么他们应该可从苹果发给指定媒体的邮件中推导出若干结论。这封邮件的主题是“我们来谈谈iPhone”

    前三个图标的意思很明显:苹果将于10月4日上午10时在其公司总部举行一场活动。如果与会者驾车从旧金山出发,应该走280号路。(假如对此还有任何怀疑,邀请函的文字部分也是这么介绍的。)

    不过邀请函还另有文章。投资银行Piper Jafray的吉恩•明斯特认为:“让我们谈谈”这句话并不太隐晦地暗示,苹果将发布升级版语音识别技术。18个月前苹果将语音识别公司Siri收入囊中,此后就一直在从事该技术开发。部分业内人士之前预计苹果会在今年6月的全球开发者大会(WWDC)上将其公之于众。

    明斯特在致客户的报告中称:“过去,苹果会在邀请函中使用一些晦涩难懂的暗示告诉大家将发布哪些内容。今年邀请函上‘让我们谈谈iPhone’这句话可能就是个简单的双关句,不过它也同样可能暗示新iPhone中将搭载新的语音功能。”

    更费思量的是“iPhone”这个单词采用了单数形式,而且电话图标上还有一个阿拉伯数字1。著名科技博客写手约翰•格鲁伯在其博客Daring Fireball上撰文指出,“有迹象表明到时后可能只会推出一款新的iPhone。”明斯特同样认为如此,尽管两人的推导思路也许有些不同。明斯特表示:

    我们认为苹果不会推出低端iPhone。部分投资者一直期待苹果发布低端iPhone,以低于300美元的价格卖给运营商,而目前运营商此项成本超过600美元。这样一来,运营商将能够提供价格实惠的无补贴iPhone,进一步加强对价格敏感型市场的渗透。然而,我们认为苹果在10月4日的发布会上不会推出这样一款设备。相反,我们推测苹果将继续推出领先设备(iPhone 5),运营商将以199或299美元的补贴价格出售该设备,同时以99美元的补贴价格出售上一代iPhone(iPhone 4或者iPhone 4S)。

    无论如何,我们下周二都将赶赴库比提诺(苹果总部所在地——译注),在苹果的大礼堂内用博客现场播报该活动进程,当然前提是可以无线上网。

    译者:项航

    If one assumes -- as many were on Tuesday -- that Apple (AAPL) puts as much thought into the iconography of its invitations as it does into the icons on its computer screens, there are several conclusions one could draw from the "Let's talk iPhone" e-mail sent to selected member of the media.

    The meaning of first three icons is pretty clear: Apple is holding an event at 10 a.m. Oct. 4 at its corporate headquarters, and if you're driving from San Francisco, 280 is the route to take. (If there were any doubt about this, the text of the invitation says as much.)

    But there's more. Piper Jafray's Gene Munster takes the "let's talk" tag line as a not-so-subtle hint that Apple will finally be delivering the voice-recognition advances it's been working on since it acquired Siri nearly 18 months ago -- advances some expected to be announced at WWDC 2011 in June.

    "In the past," Munster writes in a note to clients, "Apple has used its invitation to include cryptic hints as to what it will announce. The phrase on this year's invite, 'Let's talk iPhone' may be a simple play on words, but may also refer to new speech-based features for the iPhone."

    Even more cryptic is the use of the singular "iPhone" and the red number 1 in the telephone icon. "Something tells me there's only one new iPhone," posted John Gruber on his Daring Fireball blog. Munster came to the same conclusion, although perhaps by a different route. He writes:

    We Do Not Expect a Low-End iPhone. Some investors are looking for Apple to announce a low-end iPhone that Apple could sell to carriers for less than $300 vs. the current carrier cost of over $600. This would enable carriers to offer affordable, unsubsidized iPhones and further penetrate more price-sensitive markets. However, we do not expect Apple to announce such a device on 10/4. Rather, we expect Apple to continue with a lead device (iPhone 5) that carriers sell subsidized for $199/ $299 along with a previous generation device (iPhone 4 or iPhone 4S) for $99.

    In any event, we'll be in Cupertino next Tuesday, live-blogging the proceedings from Apple's Town Hall Auditorium, the gods of Wi-Fi permitting.

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