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专栏 - 苹果2_0

中国电信下周预售iPhone 4S

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年02月22日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
中国第三大运营商及最大的Wi-Fi网络商——中国电信即将发布iPhone 4S。

    在上周举办的高盛技术大会(Goldman Sachs technology conference)上,苹果(Apple)首席执行官蒂姆•库克告诉听众:“我们非常、非常关注中国市场。”

    本周一,库克所说的“关注”终于有了明显的成果:中国电信(China Telecom)——中国第三大移动运营商、最大的Wi-Fi网络商以及固网提供商(总用户数为2.16亿)宣布,将于3月9日正式发布iPhone 4S,并从下周开始接受预订。

    这桩交易究竟有多大?为了给大家一个参照,我们先来看看下面的数据:上季度,美国电话电报公司(AT&T)售出了创纪录的740万部iPhone, Verizon和斯普林特(Sprint)的这一数字则分别是420万和180万。

    "We've been very, very focused on China," Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook told the audience at last week's Goldman Sachs technology conference.

    One result of that focus became clear on Monday, when China Telecom (CHA), China's No. 3 mobile carrier and No. 1 Wi-Fi and fixed-line provider (total subscribers: 216 million), announced that it will begin taking iPhone 4S preorders next week for sales starting March 9.

    How big a deal is this? To put it in perspective, AT&T (T) sold 7.4 million iPhones last quarter -- Apple's biggest ever -- Verizon (VZ) sold 4.2 million and Sprint (S) 1.8 million.

    截止今年1月,中国电信拥有3,870万3G用户,其中大约1,500万属于高端用户,根据摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)最近发布的报告,这些人不但能够轻松负担iPhone费用,而且对iPhone极为热衷。(见上图)

    中国第二大运营商中国联通(China Unicom)虽然拥有更多3G用户(4,300万),但其高端用户数与中国电信大致相当。根据摩根士丹利分析师利凯蒂•休伯蒂发布的报告,五分之一的中国联通用户已经购买了iPhone。她预计这一比例最终会长至六成以上。

    不过,苹果至今未能染指中国市场最大的蛋糕。中国移动(China Mobile)是世界最大的运营商,拥有超过6亿用户,与苹果已进行了多年的谈判。数以百万计的中国移动用户正在其过时的2G网络中使用越狱版iPhone。不过,苹果目前还无法正式开展在中国移动的销售,除非它能为中国移动提供一款定制版的4G iPhone。

    休伯蒂预计,一旦苹果完成定制工作——最早可能是今年第三季度,届时iPhone在中国市场的年销量或将猛增至4,000万部。

    译者:项航

    As of January, China Telecom had 38.7 million 3G subscribers, roughly 15 million of whom, according to a recent Morgan Stanley report, are so-called high-end users who could easily afford -- and are eager to buy -- an iPhone. (See charts.)

    China Unicom (CHU), the country's No. 2 carrier, has more 3G subscribers (43 million), but roughly the same number of high-end subscribers as China Telecom. According to Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty, 20% of China Unicom's users have already bought iPhones, a share she expects to eventually grow to more than 60%.

    The big prize for Apple in China is still out of reach, however. China Mobile (CHL), the world's largest carrier with more than 600 million subscribers, has been in discussions with Apple for years, and millions of its customers are already using jailbroken iPhones on its older 2G network. But sales won't begin in earnest until Apple offers a 4G version of the iPhone that can run on China Mobile's broadband network.

    Huberty estimates that once that happens -- perhaps as early as this fall -- iPhone sales in China could quickly grow to 40 million a year.

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