微软、谷歌财报不佳,苹果财报值得期待
一说到季度收益报告,微软(Microsoft)和谷歌(Google)总是令其他公司难以企及。
但这一财季,两家公司的表现却没有重演这样的情形。 受到市场从台式机向移动计算设备转移的影响,两家公司上周四公布的财报令人失望,两家公司股票盘后交易中均大幅下跌——谷歌下跌了37.81美元(跌幅4.15%),微软下跌了2.23美元(跌幅6.29%)。 苹果(Apple)也即将公布其财报。虽然过去几个月,苹果公司也遭遇了不少挫伤,但反常的是,苹果或许是这三家公司中表现最好的一家。 一方面,几年前,公司进行了重新定位,将其主要收入来源从台式机转移到移动计算领域——先是推出了iPhone(2007年),然后是iPad(2010年)。 另一方面,分析师对于苹果在六月季度的预期很低(见上图),苹果很容易就能超出这样的预期。 正如我们在上周所报道的,本季度,外界调低了对苹果的预期。其中华尔街早前就预计,苹果公司收益将报出年比零增长。 《财富》杂志(Fortune)调查的56位苹果分析师(其中37位是华尔街专业分析师,19位是业余分析师)预计,苹果公司的收入平均为354亿美元。其中专业分析师预测苹果公司收入为349.9亿美元(略低于去年的350.2亿美元),而业余分析师的预测在361.8亿美元以上。苹果公司自己给出的预期指导为335亿至355亿美元之间。 但对每股收益率的预测却存在很大差异。 对于公司的总体收益率,苹果再次给分析师们出了一道又难度的“比较题”。去年这个时候,苹果毛利润率达到42.8%,很大程度上得益于高毛利的iPhone和iPad销售。今年,它的收入更多来自低毛利的iPad mini和折扣出售的旧款iPhone。苹果在四月份曾警告过分析师,对于公司毛利润率的预期不要超过36%至37%。 |
When it comes to quarterly earnings reports, Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG) can be tough acts to follow. Not this quarter. Wounded each in their own way by the shift from desktop to mobile computing, both companies reported disappointing earnings Thursday, and their shares fell sharply in after-hours trading -- Google by $37.81 (-4.15%) and Microsoft by $2.23 (-6.29%). Apple (AAPL) is up next, and despite the many wounds it's suffered over the past months, it may be -- paradoxically -- in the best shape of the three. For one thing, the company repositioned itself years ago, shifting its main source of revenue from desktop to mobile computing -- first with the iPhone (2007), then with the iPad (2010). For another, expectations for the June quarter are so low (see charts above) that the company has a good chance of beating them. As we reported last week, this is Apple's quarter of lowered expectations, in which the Street has reconciled itself in advance to zero revenue growth year over year. The average revenue estimate among the 56 Apple analysts Fortune polled -- 37 Wall Street professionals and 19 amateurs -- is $35.4 billion, with the pros at $34.99 (a bit below last year's $35.02 billion), and the amateurs a bit above at $36.18 billion. Apple's guidance was a range: $33.5 billion to $35.5 billion. Earnings per share, however, are a different story. Apple is once again facing what analysts call a "difficult compare" in terms of the company's overall profitability. Last year at this time Apple reported a gross margin of 42.8%, driven largely by high-margin iPhone and iPad sales. This year, more of its revenue is coming from lower-margin iPad minis and discounted older-model iPhones, and in April Apple warned analysts not to expect gross margins outside the 36% to 37% range. |
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