Secret是一款允许手机用户匿名与联系人共享信息的手机应用。这家公司目前不应该成为收购的对象。它的产品登陆应用商店才只有短短几个月，在下载排名方面还要面临老对手Whisper的冲击。它绝对没有产生收入，而且员工也还不到一打。

    但我依然认为，马克•扎克伯格会给出一个Secret无法拒绝的要约价格。

    最先出现Facebook有意收购Secret的传闻是在上周，当时有传言称Facebook开出了1亿美元的价格。独立科技新闻网站Re/Code的迈克•艾萨克很快就否定了这个传闻，他表示两家公司共同探讨了“合作”的可能。有知情人士支持这种解释，同时告诉笔者，这两家公司之间没有进行任何与收购有关的磋商。

    或许我的想法并无新意，但除了能够帮助Facebook给出更合理的收购价格外，它还想从对方了解什么信息呢？Secret不会披露自己的核心机密，而且，Facebook对社交网络效应的理解无人能出其左右（更不用说如何将相关数据货币化了）。我同意艾萨克的观点，1亿美元的“要约”纯属谣言，但并不是因为硅谷的谣言找对了对象。我只是认为，如果Facebook确实选择出价，实际价格可能会更高。

    首先，Facebook有合理的理由获得Secret。扎克伯格一直希望将移动应用作为重心，而且他还说过：“我们没有必要一直只从事涉及真实身份的事情。”事实上，他甚至更进一步，将始终使用真实身份看成一个“负担”。而Secret恰好能满足他的需要。此外，扎克伯格工作生活都在硅谷，而到目前为止，Secret在整个硅谷产生的影响力远远大于它在全球的影响。有人或许会反对砸钱跟进这种带有鲜明地域性的时代主义产物，但硅谷人肯定会把它视为一次巨大的增长机遇。

    此外，从Facebook之前的收购中可以看出，没有盈利并不是收购的障碍。Facebook以10亿美元收购Instagram时，后者也没有赚钱。虚拟现实公司Oculus VR获得了20亿美元，但它甚至没有推出一款产品。还有WhatsApp，尽管这家公司最高峰时拥有4.5亿用户，但依然没能给它带来收入。

    综上所述，我同意艾萨克的观点，1亿美元的“要约”纯属谣言。因为这个价格太低。

    首先需要说明的是，如果按照传统的估值模型计算，笔者并不认为Secret的市值应该超过1亿美元。笔者的意思是，1亿美元的价格不可能完成交易，主要有三条理由：

    1. Secret并非井底之蛙，它很清楚Facebook在一系列高调收购中的出价。

    2. 许多人都声称Secret将成为下一个Twitter，而且它自己似乎也相信了这种说法（至少在一定程度上）。

    3. Facebook可能认为谷歌（Google）也对Secret感兴趣，而竞争的威胁必将推高价格。谷歌创投（Google Ventures）是这家初创公司的主要投资人，另外一位投资人是凯鹏华盈（Kleiner Perkins）。

    因此，如果Facebook提出收购价格，肯定会给Secret一个巨大的惊喜。在传达收购价格之前，扎克伯格或许会与Secret进行长时间的交流。扎克伯格将解释Facebook如何让大规模收购的对象保持独立运营。Facebook如何帮助Secret利用它收集的个人数据（虽然用户不会注意到）来提高服务质量。之后，双方将以让外界震惊的价格完成交易，不会给泄密行为留下哪怕一点时间。即使在Secret上也不会。（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    Secret, a mobile app that lets users share messages anonymously with their phone contacts, isn't the sort of company that should be getting acquired right now. Its product has only been in the app store for a few months, and is still getting clobbered in the download rankings by (slightly) older rival Whisper. It has absolutely no revenue and fewer than a dozen employees.

    But I still think that Mark Zuckerberg may make Secret an offer it can't refuse.

    The first rumblings of Facebook's (FB) acquisition interest in Secret came last week, with widespread talk that a $100 million offer was on the table. Mike Isaac of Re/Code quickly shot that down, saying instead that the two companies had met to explore how they could "work together." A source close to Facebook seconded that explanation, telling me today that there have been no acquisition-related talks between the two companies.

    Maybe I'm not thinking creatively enough, but what exactly is Facebook hoping to learn outside of things that could help it better price an acquisition? Secret isn't going to reveal any of its special sauce, and Facebook already understands social network effects better than anyone (not to mention how to monetize its related data). I agree with Isaac that the $100 million "offer" was bunk, but not because Silicon Valley gossips are barking up the wrong tree. I just think that if Facebook does choose to make a bid, the actual number will be much, much higher.

    For starters, Facebook has real reason to want Secret. Zuckerberg already is on record as wanting to focus on mobile apps, and for saying that "we don't need to keep on only doing real identity things." In fact, he even went a step further, referring to constant real identity usage as a "burden." Secret clearly falls into that wheelhouse. Moreover, Zuckerberg lives and works within Silicon Valley, where Secret so far has gained much more traction than with the world at-large. Some might argue against buying into such geographic zeitgeistism, but those within Silicon Valley could simply view it as a large growth opportunity.

    Moreover, lack of revenue has not proven to be a barrier to Facebook's prior acquisitions. Instagram wasn't making any money when it was acquired for $1 billion. Oculus VR garnered around $2 billion without having ever shipped product. And then there's WhatsApp, which still hasn't begun recognizing revenue for most of its 450 million users.

    All of that said, I agree with Isaac that the $100 million "offer" was bunk. Namely because the number was much too low.

    To be clear, I'm not suggesting that Secret should be worth more than $100 million, if you're going by any sort of traditional valuation modeling. I'm simply saying that a deal won't get done at that price, for three primary reasons:

    1. 1. Secret hasn't been living under a rock, and knows what Facebook has been paying for high-profile acquisitions.

    2. 2. Secret is being told by all sorts of people that it could be the next Twitter, and may (at least sort of ) believe them.

    3. 3. Facebook likely believes Google (GOOG) also has some interest in Secret -- beyond the fact that Google Ventures is one of the startup's primary investors, alongside Kleiner Perkins -- and even the threat of competition drives up prices.

    So if Facebook is going to make an offer, it will be for the sort of number that blows Secret's socks off. And it probably will be conveyed after a long walk with Zuckerberg, who will explain how Facebook lets its large acquisitions do their own thing. And how Facebook could really help Secret become a better service by leveraging all of that personal data it's collecting (even though users don't notice it). And then a deal will be done at an outwardly-shocking price, without any time for leaks. Not even on Secret.