脑力风暴
上个月在阿斯彭召开的年度《财富》科技头脑风暴大会（Fortune Brainstorm Tech conference）上，４００多位企业家和高官济济一堂，讨论科技给我们的生活、通讯和娱乐消费方式带来的改变。在这种场合下，一定会听到很多人谈及职业社交网站LinkedIn、Facebook、Twitter和Spotify等公司的繁荣——Spotify是一家刚刚登录美国的在线音乐服务公司。但是这种繁荣是否已经快到了不合理的范畴？尤其是考虑到这些公司的估值。不过看起来人们对这个问题的一般看法是：“那得看是谁了。”弗兰克•夸特隆是一名经验老道的科技银行家，他并不认为科技界将面临大范围的泡沫。不过有些私人公司挣到了太多的钱，这让他隐隐感到不安。就连一向以心直口快闻名的前财政部长拉里•萨默斯在这个问题上也表示出了模楞两可的态度。他指出，与工业股票相比，科技公司的市值还是很低的。而且科技公司的潜在商机非常大，因为全世界差不多有20亿互联网用户和20亿移动电话用户。萨默森先是问道：“回头看看历史，谁能拍着胸脯说现在肯定没有泡沫？”不过他补充道：“但那些表示肯定有泡沫的人，他们肯定没有注意到我刚才说的那几点事实。”您站在哪一边？在您下决定之前，不妨先回顾一下我们对本次科技头脑风暴大会的报道。
——斯特凡妮•梅赫塔 |
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Brain Power
When you assemble more than 400 executives and entrepreneurs to discuss how technology is changing the way we work, communicate, and consume entertainment -- as Fortune did for its annual Brainstorm Tech conference in Aspen last month -- you're sure to hear a lot of exuberance for companies such as LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter, and Spotify, the music service that just launched in the U.S. But is that exuberance verging on irrational, especially where valuations are concerned? The consensus seems to be: "It depends." Frank Quattrone, the veteran tech banker, demurs on the question of a broader bubble but says he frets about the premiums some private companies are commanding. Even Larry Summers, the usually blunt former U.S. Treasury Secretary, is equivocal on the matter. He notes that the value of tech companies relative to industrials is quite low. Yet the potential market opportunity for tech -- some 2 billion Internet users and 2 billion mobile phones worldwide -- is huge. "Who can look at history and be confident that things aren't a bubble?" he asks. But, he adds, "those who are confident that it is a bubble don't seem to me to have looked at some of the kinds of facts that I just cited." What side are you on? Check out our coverage of Brainstorm Tech before you make up your mind.
--Stephanie N. Mehta |
