上周三晚些时候，凯蒂•休伯蒂在一份向客户提交的报告中称，由AlphaWise在感恩节后的一周为摩根士丹利公司（Morgan Stanley）所做的美国消费者调研中充满了令人惊喜的发现。

    • iPhone正在大卖，势头令人惊讶。基于本次调研和上周由美国电话电报公司（AT&T）发布的评论，休伯蒂估测，本财季苹果公司（Apple）iPhone的出货量将在3,100万到3,600万部之间——这比她自己通过建模估算的3,000万部要高出20%，比华尔街估测的2,800万台要高出近30%。

    • 对iPhone的需求正在加速增长。休伯蒂写道：“令人惊讶的是，美国消费者在2012年第1财季的iPhone购买量预计将比2011年第4财季更多。（着重处为分析师本人所加）”。即便将该调研的结果打折10%，这也意味着下一财季苹果公司将在美国售出1,300万部iPhone，在全球售出4,100万部。而摩根士丹利公司通过建模估测，苹果将在2012年第1财季售出3,000万部iPhone。

    • “也许最令人惊讶的是，”对平板电脑的需求毫无减弱的迹象。据该调研称，目前只有8%的美国消费者拥有一台平板电脑，但是27%的人计划购买一台。按照休伯蒂的估测，如果苹果“适度地”将4%的市场份额拱手让给亚马逊公司（Amazon）的Kindle Fire，苹果明年将在全球售出8,100万台iPad。而摩根士丹利公司建模估测的结果是，2012年苹果将仅能售出5,200万台iPad，其中在美国的销量约为2,000万台，美国之外约为3,200万台。

    • 如果降价100美元，苹果将能多售出1,500万台iPad。休伯蒂估测，即便该调研结果打30%的折扣（她是从哪儿弄到这些数据的？），如果苹果能将目前售价最低的iPad 2的价格降至399美元，2012年iPad就能在全球售出9,000万台，约比苹果供应商据称按订货要求生产的数量还多1,000万台。

    译者：清远

    The results of an AlphaWise survey of U.S. consumers conducted for Morgan Stanley the week after Thanksgiving was full of surprises, reports Katy Huberty in a note to clients issued late Wednesday.

    • iPhones are selling surprisingly briskly. Based on the survey and last week's comments from AT&T (T), Huberty estimates that Apple (AAPL) could ship anywhere from 31 to 36 million iPhones this quarter -- as much as 20% higher than the 30 million she's modeling and nearly 30% higher than the 28 million Wall Street is expecting.

    • iPhone demand is accelerating. "Surprisingly," she writes, "US consumers expect to buy more iPhones in C1Q12 than C4Q11" (emphasis hers). Even discounting the survey results 10%, that suggests Apple could sell 13 million iPhones in the U.S. and 41 million worldwide next quarter. Morgan Stanley's model has Apple selling 30 million iPhones in calendar Q1 2012.

    • "Perhaps most surprising," demand for tablets shows no sign of weakening. Only 8% of US consumers own a tablet today but 27% plan to buy one, according to the survey. If, as Huberty expects, Apple gives up "a modest" 4 points of market share to Amazon's (AMZN) Kindle Fire, Apple could sell 81 million iPads worldwide next year. Morgan Stanley is modeling only 52 millon iPads for 2012, roughly 20 million in the U.S. and 32 million overseas.

    • With a $100 price cut Apple could sell 15 million more iPads. Even after applying a 30% discount to the survey results (where does she get these numbers?), Huberty estimates that if Apple were to reduce the price of the cheapest iPad 2 to $399, it could sell 90 million iPads worldwide in 2012, roughly 10 million more than its suppliers have reportedly been asked to build.