• 我们认为苹果将利用龟山工厂生产其绝大部分iPad 3显示屏。苹果获取屏幕的价格可能比业界预计的要低，因为苹果的订单数额巨大，所以它极有可能压低市场价格。

    • 我们认为龟山工厂还将为iPhone 5 LTE提供显示屏。根据我们的研究，IGZO技术堪称完美，其能耗与OLED技术基本相同，但成本更低而厚度也仅比OLED屏厚25%。（OLED——有机发光二极管）

    • 我们认为即使iPad 3发售，苹果仍将继续生产iPad 2并将售价下调100至200美元。

    • 我们更进一步认为未来一两年，苹果和夏普将紧密合作开发适用于iPhone和iPad的OLED面板。这和大家此前认为在此期间三星铁定将与苹果就OLED进行合作的看法不大一样。事情转折点在于一项基于菊花字轮和喷墨打印机的新技术，能将OLED“打印”到薄膜，然后放置到玻璃上。OLED的产量因此将获得极大提升，而且目前已有多项基于该技术的OLED商用制造试验正在进行中。我们认为到2012年中期，夏普/苹果将建立生产线进行试产，正式投产有望在2013年开始。

    • 根据我们的研究，OLED技术最初只适用于小型和中型面板（例如iPad和iPhone）。适合iTV的面板可能要到2015年才出现。

    米塞克报告中关于iTV的部分也被广泛转载，称许多竞争对手“惊慌失措”地搜集iTV情报，以免再次被苹果的突然袭击打个“措手不及”。这种描述同样也适用于米瑟克在其日本之旅中看到的其它所有情况。

    注意：虽然米塞克将iPad 2012年第一季度的出货量由1,700万下调至1,400万，但他仍然认为关于iPad市场疲软的报道夸大其词。他表示下调预期的原因仅仅在于 “欧洲经济整体疲软以及缺乏运营商补贴。”

    译者：项航

    • We believe that Apple may use this facility for the vast majority of the iPad 3 displays. The price at which Apple will be able to procure these panels will be lower than expected as the capital commitment by Apple likely necessitates below market pricing in our view.

    • For the iPhone 5 LTE we also believe this new facility will be used to supply displays. The IGZO technology is perfect in that it offers near-OLED power consumption while having a lower cost and thinness that is only 25% greater than OLED, based on our checks. [OLED = Organic light-emitting diode]

    • Even after the iPad 3 launch, we believe Apple will continue to produce the iPad 2 and will lower the price by $100 to $200.

    • Going forward we believe that Apple and Sharp will jointly develop OLED panels for use in iPhone and iPad within the next 1 to 2 years. This contrasts with conventional wisdom that states Samsung will have a lock on OLED for that timeframe. The equalizer is a new printing technology based on a combination of daisy wheel and inkjet technology that "prints" the OLED onto a film that is then deposited onto glass. The yield improvements have been enormous and have enabled some trial runs to produce commercial yields. We expect Sharp/Apple to have a line testing this by the middle of 2012 with 2013 output possible.

    • Based on our checks we believe OLED is only slated for small and mid-sized panels (i.e., iPad, iPhone). iTV is unlikely to receive OLED treatment until 2015.

    The other section of Misek's report that's getting widely quoted -- about competitors "scrambling" to figure out what an iTV might be so as not to get "caught flat-footed" by Apple once again -- could apply just as well to everything else Misek saw on his trip to Japan.

    Note: Misek also believes that reports of weakness in the iPad market have been overstated, and although he cut his Q1 2012 iPad shipment estimate from 17 million to 14 million, he said he was doing so "due to Europe macro issues and lack of carrier subsidization."