周一，投资银行Piper Jaffray的分析师吉恩•明斯特在致客户的报告中引用了连夜出版的史蒂夫•乔布斯传记，将其中据说是乔布斯原话，作为证明他论点的“又一个数据点”，事实上，从2009年以来他就对这个观点深信不疑。

    乔布斯曾向其授权传记的作者沃尔特•伊萨克森称：“我希望开发一款全功能电视，能和所有的设备以及iCloud无缝衔接……它拥有你所能想像得到的、最简单的用户界面。我终于把它搞定了。”

    明斯特称，开发成熟的苹果（Apple）电视（而非苹果电视机顶盒）最大的难点在于如何将实时播放的电视节目与iCloud上的电视节目回放有机结合起来。明斯特指出，“也许这就是乔布斯认为自己终于攻克了的难关。”他补充说，苹果可以在电视中加入最新的Siri语音控制，“以增强电视的吸引力，将信息输入化繁为简，例如在电视上显示节目名称、演员表等操作，依靠语音指令能轻松搞定。”

    明斯特认为其它与苹果电视有关的证据如下（我引用自明斯特本人）

    • 根据1月11日在亚洲的会议（不是和零部件供应商），我们认为苹果正在注资制造生产厂商，以确保其LCD显示屏供应，涉及从3.5寸的移动显示屏到50寸的电视机显示屏。

    • 最近，在9月11日，我们与一位接近亚洲零部件供应商的消息人士会面，他透露苹果电视的原型机已在制造当中。

    • 5月11日，美国专利商标局（the US Patent & Trademark Office）公布了苹果与电视技术相关的专利。10月6日，苹果申请了一项关于浏览和录制电视节目的专利，专利中提到的大部分功能都与苹果电视相关，但这些功能在当前的苹果电视中还未出现。

    • 1月11日，美国7,865,927专利公布：苹果正在开发先进的电视播放菜单（见上图）。在这些专利中，苹果提到一种系统，可能“包括一部带或不带数字录像机（或者个人录像机）的机顶盒。在其余实现方式中，包括一台带内置功能的显示器（例如电视机）。”

    明斯特最后总结称：“我们预计，2012年将会售出2.2亿台平板电视，其中4,800万到1.06亿台将会是互联网电视，而苹果将有望售出140万台苹果电视。我们预计在2012年，苹果电视为苹果带来25亿美元营收，约占公司营收的2%；到2013年，这一数字将上升到40亿美元和3%，到2014年则是60亿美元。”

    下表：明斯特的电视销售表（销售量和营收单位均是百万）。

    译者：项航

    In a note to clients released Monday, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster seizes on remarks attributed to Steve Jobs in the biography published overnight as "another data point" to support a thesis he's been championing since 2009.

    "I'd like to create an integrated television set," Jobs told Walter Isaacson, his authorized biographer. "It would be seamlessly synced with all of your devices and with iCloud... It will have the simplest user interface you could imagine. I finally cracked it."

    A significant hurdle to a full-fledged Apple (AAPL) television set (as opposed to the Apple TV set-top box), Munster writes, is combining live television with shows previously captured on iCloud. "Perhaps this code is precisely what Jobs believed he has 'cracked,'" Munter suggests, adding that Apple could use the new Siri voice activated system "to bolster its TV offering and simplify the chore of inputting information like show titles, or actor names, into a TV."

    Munster's other TV-related data points (I quote):

    • Based on Jan-11 meetings in Asia (not with component suppliers), we believe Apple is investing in manufacturing facilities and securing supply for LCD displays. These displays could range from 3.5" mobile displays to 50" television displays.

    • More recently, in Sept-11 we met with a contact close to an Asian component supplier who indicated that prototypes of an Apple television are in the works.

    • As recently as May-11 the US Patent & Trademark Office has published Apple patents relating to television-specific technology. In an Oct-06 patent application Apple filed for patents related to software for browsing and recording live television, features most closely related to, but not currently available in, the Apple TV.

    • More recently, in US patent 7,865,927 published in Jan-11, Apple explores advanced TV broadcast menus (see image). In these patents, Apple refers to a system that could "include a set-top box with or without a digital video recorder (DVR) (or, personal video recorder (PVR). In other example implementations, a display with built-in functionality (e.g, a television)."

    Bottom line, according to Munster: "We believe that of the estimated 220m flat panel TVs sold in 2012, 48% or 106m units will be internet-connected, of which Apple could sell 1.4m units. We believe an Apple Television could add $2.5b or 2% to revenue in CY12, $4.0b or 3% in CY13 and $6.0b in CY14."

    Below the fold: Munster's TV spreadsheet (units and revenue in millions).