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专栏 - 苹果2_0

苹果电视机今年问世?

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年02月03日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
硬件非常简单。难点在于如何说服好莱坞进驻电视荧屏。

    2.苹果电视还能选择和电视网络频道以及其它互联网视频提供商合作提供实况电视节目。折衷的方案是,苹果(利用互联网或无线网络),通过电视网络频道提供实况电视节目。然后苹果可以为苹果电视开发一个新的应用程序商店,作为其基本电视功能的补充。在线影碟租赁公司Netflix、视频网站Hulu Plus以及其他内容提供商都可以在其中开发自己的应用程序。在这种模式下,苹果很有可能会继续通过iTunes商店,向苹果电视提供iTunes中的电影和电视内容。

    3.最后,苹果还能与内容提供商合作,提供一项基于自选节目的月度订阅打包方案。毫无疑问,如果苹果真的打算控制整个电视体验,这是其中最具挑战性的一个方案,也就是说,它必须成为一家虚拟多业务运营商,使用户能按月订阅实时电视服务。当初,苹果在进军智能手机市场时,它并没有选择这样做。按照内容供应商和服务提供商之间现行的授权协议,这个方案在媒体也内不可能实现。而且,它也超出了苹果核心竞争力的覆盖范围。也就是说,这个方案将会使苹果控制整个用户体验,而且很可能开发出许多全新的功能,它们将是目前所有电视服务提供商和电子产品制造商都无法提供的新功能。

    我们的看法?电视机谁都能造,尽管苹果可能已经购买了更出色的屏幕技术。整顿电视机混乱的用户界面恰恰就是苹果的强项。苹果的iCloud和iTunes商店可能使其更具优势,但目前来看,电视观众似乎并不急于付费点播电视节目。然而,最大的未知数在于,蒂姆•库克或埃迪•库尔能否说服好莱坞签署关于内容的协议。要知道,史蒂夫•乔布斯在其有生之年一直未能如愿以偿。

    译者:项航

    2. Apple could offer access to live TV from network channels in combination with other web-based video services. One middle-of-the-road option could be for Apple to deliver live TV from network channels (either over the internet or over the air) to the Apple Television. Apple could then leverage a new App Store for the Apple Television to supplement the basic live TV features with Netflix, Hulu Plus, or any content provider that chooses to build an app for the television. In this instance, Apple would also likely continue to offer its iTunes movie and TV content through the iTunes store to the Apple Television.

    3. Apple could offer monthly subscriptions, on an a-la-carte basis, for live TV packages with content from content providers. Clearly the most challenging option, if Apple truly wanted to control the entire television experience - which, again, the company chose not to do when entering the smartphone market - it would have to become a virtual MSO (Multiple Services Provider) and offer monthly subscriptions for live TV services. Such an offering would be unlikely given existing licensing arrangements between content providers and service providers as well as the fact that it lies outside of Apple's core competencies, even in media. That said, it would enable the company to control the entire experience and possibly deliver new features that are currently unavailable through existing television service providers and CE device makers.

    Our take? Anybody can build a TV set, although Apple may have bought itself access to better screen technologies. Fixing TV's broken user interface is right in Apple's wheel house. Apple's iCloud and iTunes store might give it an edge, but TV viewers so far haven't seemed terribly eager to buy TV shows a la carte. The biggest unknown is whether Tim Cook or Eddy Cue can talk Hollywood into signing the kind of content deals Steve Jobs was never, in his lifetime, able to get.

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