高盛（Goldman Sachs）分析师比尔•肖普称，华尔街倾向于将苹果（Apple）视为一家硬件公司，公司价值仅仅在于持续不断推出的热销产品——似乎iPhone、iPad的忠实用户，以及具有超常粘性的iOS软件平台一文不值。

    为此，肖普进行了两方面的调查，尝试确定这些无形资产的价值。

    首先，他计算了从iOS转到谷歌（Google）安卓（Android）系统等竞争性平台的成本。.

    然后，他对1,000名iPhone和iPad用户进行了调查，希望知道竞争产品要提供多大折价，才能吸引这些苹果用户考虑换到其他产品。

    他在上周五发给客户的一份报告中公布了调查结果。报告的要点如下：

    • iOS用户忠诚度高。 94%的iOS用户可能或非常可能在购买下一部智能手机或平板电脑时继续选择苹果。超过1/5的用户称，再高的折价也不会考虑弃用苹果产品。

    • 转换成本高。转换的显性成本包括更换音乐和应用软件等，平均每台设备为122-301美元。而隐性成本，包括“琐碎的麻烦”、丧失苹果优质的客户服务等，则进一步强化了苹果平台的粘性。

    • 规模效应。肖普估计，截至上周六，即苹果第三财季结束时，安装iOS的设备总量将超过2.81亿部，较去年同期大增72%。采用苹果产品综合均价扣除苹果毛利率、平台侵蚀等因素，肖普计算出每名iOS用户贡献的生命周期价值为1,053美元。

    • 苹果的最大价值在于用户。以2.81亿用户乘以1,053美元，肖普获得了苹果用户的总价值约2,950亿美元，相当于苹果当前市值的55%。而这还没有考虑“苹果手头1,100亿美元的现金，苹果用户群的快速增长，Macintosh电脑和传统iPod业务的价值，以及相关内容、服务和外围设备的价值”。

    肖普在报告中指出，有些风险可能造成未来iOS平台价值大幅下降，这些风险包括创新失败、监管审查、市场饱和、平台竞争以及转换成本下降等因素。但他表示，这些风险“已充分体现在苹果当前的贴现估值中”。

    目前，苹果仍是高盛的板块首选股，12个月目标价为850美元。苹果过票上周四报收于569.05美元。

    译者：早稻米

    According to Goldman Sachs' Bill Shope, Wall Street tends to view Apple (AAPL) as a hardware company that is only as valuable as its next hit product -- as if its famously loyal iPhone and iPad customers or its unusually sticky iOS software platform were worth nothing.

    So he conducted a two-part study to try to put a price on those intangibles.

    First he calculated the cost of switching from iOS to a competing platform -- Google's (GOOG) Android, say.

    Then he conducted a survey of 1,000 iPhone and iPad customers to find out how much of a discount a competing product would have to offer before those customers would consider switching.

    He reported his findings in a note to clients Friday. The key takeaways:

    • iOS users are a loyal bunch. 94% are likely or highly likely to stick with Apple for their next smartphone or tablet. More than one in five said there isn't a discount high enough to persuade them to switch.

    • It costs a lot to switch. The explicit switching cost (to replace music, apps, etc.) comes to an average of $122 to $301 per device. The implicit switching costs (the "pain in the neck factor," losing Apple's better-than-average customer service, etc.) make the platform even stickier.

    • Installed base matters. Shope estimates that by Saturday (when Apple's third fiscal quarter ends), the installed base of iOS units will exceed 281 million, up 72% from the same quarter last year. Using a blended average selling price reduced by Apple's gross margin, platform erosion etc., he calculates that the lifetime value to Apple of each iOS customer is $1,053.

    • Apple's greatest value is its customer base. Multiplying 281 million by $1,053, Shope gets a value for Apple's installed base of roughly $295 billion. That's about 55% of Apple's current market capitalization. And that, he adds, "is before taking into consideration Apple's $110 billion cash balance, the rapid growth of the installed base, the value of the Macintosh and traditional iPod businesses, and the related content, services and peripherals streams."

    There are risks, Shope writes, that the value of the platform will decrease significantly in the future, among them failure to innovate, regulatory scrutiny, market saturation, platform competition and a deterioration of switching costs. But he adds that these risks "are more than captured in Apple's currently discounted valuation."

    Apple remains Goldman Sachs' (GS) top pick in the sector with a 12-month target price of $850. It closed Thursday at $569.05.