3、本行业是否正发生深刻改变？如果是，将对公司产生何种影响？

    极端的经济条件往往会加速现有的变革趋势。报业已历经多年衰落，但很多报纸还在苟延残喘，直到最近的经济危机把他们推下悬崖。而衰退也迫使20多年来下滑不止的底特律三大汽车厂商在危机中重生。这些行业都已经发生了深刻改变。

    而在其它行业，即使如此严重的经济危机也可能只是让生产暂时偏离了长期趋势。例如，高通（Qualcomm）和英特尔（Intel）这样的芯片厂商看似也在波峰波谷间跌跌撞撞，但长期看，增长还是保持着可靠的上升势头。如果前几年的增长低于趋势，很可能接下来就会出现一个追赶期，期间以高于趋势的速度增长。

    你所在的行业经历了一场地震还是干打雷不下雨？目前两种答案都能找到理由。你最好能确信自己找到了正确的答案。

    即使在这样动荡的时期，也不是每个公司都需要改变战略。但每个公司都需要确定自己的战略是需要推倒重来还是精心微调。回答上述3个问题就走出了第一步，越快越好。

    改编自杰奥夫•科尔文的著作：《衰退也有好的一面：苦日子里的管理战略》，该书刚刚推出完全改写和新版。

    3. Is our industry being deeply restructured, and if so, how will it affect us?

    Extreme economic conditions tend to accelerate trends that were already underway. Newspapers have been in decline for years, yet most papers hung on until the most recent recession, which finally pushed many over the edge. The secular decline of the three Detroit automakers was observable for at least 20 years before the recession forced a crisis that changed them dramatically. Those industries will never be the same.

    Yet in other industries, even an economic trauma as bad as this one may just throw production temporarily off its long-term trend line. For chipmakers like Qualcomm (QCOM) and Intel (INTC), as an example, growth has lurched through peaks and valleys but over time has followed a reliably rising line. A few years of below-trend growth will most likely be followed by a catch-up period of above-average growth.

    Is your industry feeling an earthquake or only a thunderclap? Either answer is plausible today. You'd just better be sure you've got the right answer.

    Not every company needs to change its strategy, even in these tumultuous times. But every company needs to determine if its strategy requires an overhaul or just thoughtful tweaks. Asking these three questions is a great way to start, and the sooner the better.

    Adapted from Geoff Colvin's bookThe Upside of the Downturn: Management Strategies for Difficult Times,just published in a fully revised and updated edition.