我们正在经历并购行业的新常态？

    6个月前，我们听说第一季度并购活动低迷只是假日后遗症。3个月前，我们听说第二季度并购活动低迷是特殊情况引发的异常现象——后续交易很多，只是还没最终完成。但如今第三季度也即将结束，下行趋势仍然毫无缓和迹象。

    汤森路透社（Thomson Reuters）发布的初步数据显示，2012年第三季度全球并购活动同比下降了18.3%。今年迄今交易量已经大降38%，其中美国剧减近45%。

    实际上，差不多每个相关数据组都很难看。今年迄今，欧洲并购量已降至十年低点，季度环比下降约42%。美国并购活动也处于九年来的最低点，而亚洲则出现了2005年以来的最低水平。

    唯一或许称得上亮点的是私募股权支持的交易，这部分交易第三季度环比增长了16%。但即便这样，如果将时间段拉长，形势也不容乐观，今年迄今交易量下降了10%。

    不错，2012年还剩下一个季度的时间可以扭转局势。并购业内人士坚称，他们和过去一样忙碌，随着公开市场股价上涨，企业更愿意进行买卖。希望永远存在……或者即便不是永远，至少也能再撑上三个月。

    Are we experiencing a new normal for mergers and acquisitions?

    Six months ago, we heard that low Q1 M&A activity was just a holiday hangover. Three months ago, we heard that low Q2 M&A activity was an anomaly -- and that the pipeline was stuffed with transactions that hadn't quite been able to cross the finish line. But as the third quarter now comes to a close, the downward trend shows no sign of abating.

    Preliminary data from Thomson Reuters shows an 18.3% decline in global M&A activity, when comparing Q3 2012 to Q3 2011. Year-to-date volume is down a whopping 38%, including nearly 45% in the U.S.

    In fact, the numbers are rough in virtually every related data set. Year-to-date European M&A is at a 10-year low, and quarter-over-quarter volume fell approximately 42%. U.S. activity is at a nine-year low, while Asia is reporting its weakest mark since 2005.

    The only potential bright-spot is for private equity-backed deals, which climbed 16% in Q3 from the prior quarter. But even there the larger picture is cloudy, with year-to-date activity down 10 percent.

    Yes, 2012 still has another quarter to turn things around. And deal pros insist that they are as busy as they've ever been, with rising public equities prices making corporations more willing to buy and sell. Hope springs eternal... Or, if not eternal, at least it springs for another three months.