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中国在日前美国总统大选的第二场和第三场辩论中成了重要议题，而且第二场比第三场更明显，尽管第三场的主题才是外交政策。奥巴马和罗姆尼在中国问题上都强调了美中关系相互竞争的本质，以及需要让中国遵守游戏规则，但谁也没有给出多少未来政策的细节。而且，两人都强调同样的设想：“如果中国遵守规则，我们愿意与之成为伙伴。”这与克林顿政府执政中期以来采取的方式保持了一致。 我们从罗姆尼那里听到的最具体表态是：“从上任第一天起，我就要给中国贴上货币操纵国的标签。”这表明，他将因人民币被低估对中国实施制裁或惩罚。或许如此，但还不一定。在他的表态和真正实施制裁之间还有好几个环节，不能一蹴而就。因此，这种“明确”的政策正是罗姆尼行事方式的鲜明写照。实际上，我们对于罗姆尼将采取怎样的中国政策或世界其他地区政策完全一无所知。 奥巴马的立场似乎相对清晰。他将延续过去四年所采取的政策，特别是自从2010年至2011年奥巴马政府将“重心”转移到亚洲以来的政策。奥巴马将继续寻求世界贸易组织（WTO）的帮助。因为正如他所说，美国在这方面一直相当成功。按照笔者的统计，美国在日内瓦提出的、针对中国的贸易仲裁，10项有9项都是美国获胜。他对泛太平洋伙伴关系（Trans-Pacific Partnerhsip，简称TPP）也出人意料地坦诚。第三场辩论中，他没有提到TPP。但他说，美国正在组织地区内国家实施一项高标准的贸易和投资标准协定，这应当会给中国带来更多压力时，其实说的就是TPP。这段概述或许是美国政府首次在公开场合对TPP协议作出如此明确地表述，但人们可以明白为什么奥巴马选择在竞选时期这么干。或许他已得出结论，中国绝不可能签约，至少一开始不会，因此，比以前更明确地探讨TPP目标并没有什么害处。 换个话题。2011年，中国销售了不到9,000辆电动或混合电动汽车。当时，笔者评论称，对于一个据称非常希望推广绿色能源的国家，这是一个多么可怕的数据。结果状况却越变越糟糕。财新网（Caixin）的数据显示，2012年前三季度，中国仅售出了235辆电动汽车。这基本上就是零，表明这个行业没有获得任何支持。另据报道，中国出口了7,500辆电动汽车。如果真是这样的话，这个行业模式与太阳能行业一模一样：95%以上的产品用于出口。这意味着太阳能和电动汽车并非中国国内能源或环保政策的核心内容，而是全球贸易战略的一部分。 译者：早稻米 |
China featured prominently in the 2nd and 3rd US presidential debates, in fact, more in the 2nd than the 3rd, even though the latter was on foreign policy. Although there has been handringing in Beijing because President Obama and Governor Romney have emphasized the competitive nature of the relationship and the need to have China play by the rules, neither has given many specifics about policy going forward. Also, both have used essentially the same formulation, "We want to be partners if China plays by the rules." That is essentially consistent with the approach taken since the middle of the Clinton Administration. The most detail we got from Romney is that, "On Day One I will label China a currency manipulator." That implies he will institute sanctions or penalties against China because the RMB is undervalued. Maybe, but not necessarily. There are several steps that have to occur between his declaration and sanctions, and none are automatic. So this moment of supposed policy precision is just another example of Romney being Romney. In fact, we have absolute zero idea what Romney's policies toward China -- or essentially anywhere in the world -- will be. President Obama's position seems clearer. He'll continue his policies of the last 4 years, particularly since the administration adopted its "pivot" to Asia in 2010/11. Obama will continue to go to the WTO, since as he noted, the US has been so successfl there. By my count, it has won 9 of 10 cases against China in Geneva. He also was perhaps unexpectedly honest about the Trans-Pacific Partnerhsip (TPP). He did not mention these words last night, but when he said the US is organizing countriesi in the region to adopt an agreement on trade and investment principles that sets high standards and that should put additional pressure on China, he meant TPP. This framing gives the agreement a sharper edge than perhaps the administration has been suggesting in public, but one can see why Obama would do so in the context of the campaign. He may have also concluded that there is no way China would ever sign on, at least initially, so there's no harm in being more explicit about the TPP's goals. Switching gears, in 2011, China sold less than 9,000 electric or hybrid vehicles. At the time I remarked how this was a horrible record for a country supposedly so intent on promoting green energy. Things have only gotten worse. According to Caixin, in the first 3 quarters of 2012, China has sold only 235 electric cars. That is essentially zero and means there is no support for this sector whatsoever. China reportedly did export 7,500 electric cars. If so, we are seeing the same pattern as in the solar sector: export over 95% of production. This means solar and electric vehicles are part of a global trade strategy but not central to domestic energy or conservation policy. |
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