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专栏 - 苹果2_0

富士康冻结招聘恐怕要怪苹果

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年02月25日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
富士康今年罕见地冻结了招聘活动,引发业界大量猜测。原因或许真的在苹果身上,不过不是因为此前报道的iPhone 5销量不佳,而是因为苹果和富士康迫于舆论的压力,提高了工人的工资,压缩了加班时间,富士康员工在春节后的返岗率大大高于往年。

    跌跌不休的苹果(Apple)股票上周三再遭重创,当天下跌8.84美元,跌幅近2%。此前《金融时报》(Financial Times)曾有文章称苹果代工厂商富士康(Foxconn)冻结招聘是因为iPhone 5生产放缓。

    虽然富士康发言人言之凿凿地表示,冻结招聘与iPhone 5无关,但苹果股价仍然丝毫没有起色。

    对于富士康冻结招聘的原因,各位分析师迅速给出了其它解释:

    • 9.7英寸iPad销售不畅【富邦证券(Fubon Securities)分析师亚瑟•廖】

    • 惠普(Hewlett-Packard)PC销量下滑【瑞银(UBS)史蒂夫•密鲁诺威科】

    • 富士康推行机器人技术【第一财经日报(CBN Daily)】

    • 苹果将代工订单转移到其它厂商【商业内幕(Business Insider)尼古拉斯•卡尔森】

    • 春节长假后离岗的工人数量较少【加拿大皇家银行(RBC)阿米特•德莱纳里】

    最后一条解释最有趣的一点是,它明确地把责任归咎于苹果。

    德莱纳里表示,从往年看,中国工人在过完年后的离岗率高达20%至30%,他们因为工资太低和工作环境恶劣等原因而离开富士康。不过今年不大一样,据他的线人透露,富士康工人的到岗率接近90%。

    难道这是因为富士康迫于苹果和当地工会组织的压力,把工资提了一倍多,同时缩减了加班时间?(财富中文网)

    译者:项航

    Apple's (AAPL) battered shares took another hit Wednesday -- down $8.84, nearly 2%, for the day -- after the Financial Times attributed a hiring freeze at the Foxconn factories that assemble many of Apple's products to a slowdown in iPhone 5 production.

    The stock didn't recover, even after a Foxconn spokesman flatly denied that the freeze had anything to do with the iPhone 5.

    Several alternative explanations were quickly put forward:

    • A slowdown in 9.7-inch iPad sales (Fubon Securities analyst Arthur Liao)

    • A decline in Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) PC sales (UBS's Steve Milunovich)

    • A shift to robotic production by Foxconn (CBN Daily)

    • A shift by Apple to other manufacturers (Business Insider's Nicholas Carlson)

    • Fewer workers going AWOL after the Chinese New Year break (RBC's Amit Daryanani)

    What's interesting about that last explanation is that it puts the blame squarely back on Apple.

    Historically, according to Daryanani, 20%-30% of Chinese workers don't bother to come back after the holidays to factory jobs where the pay is low and working conditions harsh. This year, according to his sources, return rates may have been closer to 90%.

    Could that have anything to do with the fact that Foxconn, pressured by Apple and local workers rights groups, has more than doubled wages and cut overtime hours?

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