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专栏 - 苹果2_0

苹果供应链拉响警报

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年03月13日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
报道称,苹果减少了供应商订单。苹果供应商今年2月份的营收额环比下滑31%,而在过去7年,这个数字的平均值只有8%。消息传来,苹果股价再遭重创。但苹果CEO此前针对类似言论回应称,苹果的供应链非常复杂,根据片面情况推测整个供应链、乃至苹果本身的状况无异于盲人摸象。

    最后是库克的点评。

    蒂姆•库克,苹果2013年第一财季营收会议:“这几个月有关我们订单减少之类的传闻一直不绝于耳,所以我有必要对此做出澄清。我不想单独评论哪条传闻,因为这些传闻太多,我一辈子都评不完。我只是建议大家,对有关苹果生产计划的任何传闻最好都抱着怀疑的态度。我还要提醒大家,即便某些消息是正确的,但你绝不可能从中推出我们整体业务的状况。因为供应链非常复杂,而且我们每款产品都有很多供货渠道,供应商的产量时刻都在变,供应商的表现也存在差异。初始库存水平也可能发生变化。我的意思是,影响因素实在太多了,单靠某个数据点来判断苹果的现状无异于盲人摸象。”(点击此处查看库克讲话的全文)(财富中文网)

    译者:项航

    And finally...

    Tim Cook, From Apple's fiscal Q1 2013 Earnings Call: "I know there has been lots of rumors about order cuts and so forth and so let me just take a moment to make a comment on these. I don't want to comment on any particular rumor because I would spend my life doing that but I would suggest it's good to question the accuracy of any kind of rumor about build plans and also stress that even if a particular data point were factual it would be impossible to accurately interpret the data point as to what it meant for our overall business because the supply chain is very complex and we obviously have multiple sources for things, yields might vary, supply performance can vary. The beginning inventory positions can vary, I mean there is just an inordinate long list of things that would make any single data point not a great proxy for what's going on." (Transcript)

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