如今距离戴尔（Dell Inc.）“询价期”截止只剩10天了。这10天内，这家公司还可以征集更好的报价，高出迈克尔•戴尔和银湖资本（Silver Lake Partners）联手给出的每股13.65美元的出价。但我高度怀疑，就连13.65美元的出价最终可能也难以兑现。

    不妨让我们先来看看那些签了戴尔数据保密协议的公司便知道了，这些公司是：

    联想（Lenovo)：一家中国电脑生产商如何才能通过美国监管机构的审核？诚然，这家公司2005年收购IBM个人电脑子公司的交易最终获得了批准。但那已经是很多年以前的事情了，那时中国电脑黑客问题还没有成为美国一项重要的国防议题。当时，美国外国投资委员会（CFIUS）还没有阻止贝恩资本（Bain Capital）和中国华为科技公司（Huawei Technologies）拟议收购3Com的计划。如果CFIUS连让中国人接触到美国政府机构使用的电脑网络设备都感到不安，又怎么能让中国人接触到真正的电脑呢？

    惠普（Hewlett-Packard）：理论上，梅格•惠特曼有可能全力投入，藉此垄断个人电脑市场。但这样，惠普就会面临自己的监管问题（反垄断）。而且也没有迹象表明，惠普的股东们有兴趣进行再进行一项大规模的收购。还有一个问题是，迈克尔•戴尔是否会投票支持跟他同名的这家公司被IBM这个曾经嘲笑过收购声明的竞争对手收购。

    卡尔•伊坎有传言称，伊坎将全盘收购价提高到了每股15美元，并要求进行一项特别派息（他已进入询价流程）。戴尔的特殊委员会一定也会很高兴看到这一幕，因为他们终于可以证明，迈克尔•戴尔的出价并不是给公司的恩赐。但全盘私有化收购并非伊坎的一贯做法。相反，伊坎最近鼓动的事情更多是围绕利润——试图迫使他人提高出价，增加伊坎所持少数股股权的价值。伊坎已经收购了一些上市公司的控股股权。在这宗交易里，迈克尔•戴尔能留住吗（鉴于他对于公开市场的敌对态度，不太可能）？如果不能，为什么伊坎认为，戴尔公司的所有权从迈克尔转变到卡尔，会让公众股东认为能提升戴尔公司的价值？要知道在这一全盘收购计划泄露前，基本不会有人讨论每股13美元的戴尔——更不要说每股15美元。

    黑石集团（The Blackstone Group）：这是最可能给出竞价的寻购者，因为(1)迈克尔•戴尔已表示，如果出现一个更高的竞价，他将与银湖之外的一家私募股权公司合作，（2）不存在有任何监管上的担忧。 但黑石收购大型科技公司的记录非常糟糕，这也解释了为什么牵头进行这些交易的很多人都已经离开了这家公司。另外，很难想象黑石新聘合伙人戴维•约翰逊（戴尔公司先前的并购负责人）具备足够的影响力在投资委员会内推进这件事（也许这是他的目标，但我不知道)。

    另外，值得注意的一点是，伊坎或黑石的融资可能有点复杂。不是银行贷款，而是微软（Microsoft）提供的20亿美元贷款。

    我的理解是，微软的这笔钱与银湖的参与收购直接挂钩（来自Skype的老朋友）。这并不是说微软不会给其他竞价提供支持——毕竟，它的主旨是保护行业生态系统——但这家软件巨头没有这样做的契约责任。

    当然，以上这些并不意味着每股13.65美元的出价就一定会持续。仅仅是来自伊坎的压力就可能迫使迈克尔•戴尔提高出价。但是，我预计，最终股东将投票支持迈克尔•戴尔和银湖的出价，不管这一出价最终包括哪些具体内容。（财富中文网）

    We are now 10 days away from the end of Dell Inc.'s "go-shop" period, during which the company can solicit superior bids to the existing $13.65 per share offer from Michael Dell and Silver Lake Partners. I continue to be highly skeptical that such an offer will materialize.

    Just take a look at those known to have signed nondisclosure agreements in exchange for access to Dell's (DELL) data-room:

    Lenovo (LNVGY): How on earth would the Chinese computer-maker pass U.S. regulatory muster? Sure it managed to get approval for its 2005 purchase IBM's (IBM) personal computer unit, but that was long before the issue of Chinese computer hacking was a major part of America's defense discourse. It also was before CFIUS blocked threatened to block Bain Capital and China's Huawei Technologies' proposed acquisition of 3Com. If CFIUS was uncomfortable with Chinese access to computer network equipment being used by U.S. government agencies, what about Chinese access to the actual computers?

    Hewlett-Packard (HPQ): Meg Whitman theoretically could go all in here, and try to corner the PC market. But HP would have regulatory issues of its own (antitrust) and there is no indication that HP shareholders have the stomach for another massive acquisition. And then there would be the question of if Michael Dell would vote his shares toward having his namesake company taken over by a rival that mocked his acquisition announcement.

    Carl Icahn: There have been rumors that Icahn floated a $15 per share buyout offer before asking for a special dividend (he's since entered the go-shop process), and Dell's special committee would like nothing more than a way to prove its not beholden to Michael Del's offer. But take-private buyouts aren't really Icahn's stock in trade. Instead his agitation lately has been more around the margins -- trying to force others to increase their own offers, thus increasing the value of Icahn's minority holdings. He's also acquired control stakes in some listed companies, but would Michael Dell stick around in such a situation (unlikely, given his animus toward the public markets)? And, if not, why does Icahn think public shareholders will view Dell as more valuable with a Michael-for-Carl trade at the top of the corporate food-chain? Remember, few people were talking about Dell as a $13 per share stock -- let alone a $15 per share stock -- before news of this buyout leaked.

    The Blackstone Group (BX): This is the most likely of an unlikely bunch, given that (1) Michael Dell has indicated that he would work with a private equity firm other than Silver Lake, if it offered a higher price, and (2) There wouldn't be any regulatory concerns. But Blackstone has a terrible record when it comes to large tech buyouts, which helps explain why many of the people who led those deals are no longer with the firm. Moreover, it's hard to imagine that new hire David Johnson (i.e., Michael Dell's former M&A guy) already has enough clout to push this one through investment committee (assuming that's his aim, which is unknown to me).

    It's also worth noting that the financing for Icahn or Blackstone could prove tricky. Not the bank debt, but that $2 billion loan from Microsoft (MSFT).

    My understanding is that the Microsoft money is specifically tied to Silver Lake's involvement (old pals from Skype). This isn't to say that Microsoft wouldn't hitch its wagon to a rival bid -- after all, its main prerogative is to protect its ecosystem -- but the software giant is under no contractual obligation to do so.

    To be sure, none of this means the $13.65 per share offer is destined to stand. Icahn's pressure alone may force Michael Dell to bump up his price. But I'd expect the final shareholder vote will be on the Michael Dell/Silver Lake offer, whatever the specifics of that offer ultimately include.