风险投资家已经在比特币相关的初创公司身上投入了大约1亿美元，他们相信加密货币最终会在全球支付行业占据相当的份额。从数码钱包到商业承兑汇票的一切业务都将见到它们的身影。不过，假如他们不帮忙实现美元与比特币之间的兑换，这些恐怕都只是一个泡影。

    这些投资家们会告诉你，比特币的广泛采用是他们这些初创公司取得成功的关键。例如，风险投资家本•霍洛维茨最近与博主菲利克斯•萨尔蒙打赌称，未来的五年内，美国国家公共电台（NPR，National Public Radio）超过10%的听众都会使用比特币购买商品。霍洛维茨打这个赌，不仅是因为他相信自己会赢，也是因为他需要赢【迄今为止，安德森•霍洛维茨基金（Andreessen Horowitz）已经在比特币领域投资了将近5,000万美元】。

    目前，妨碍比特币普及的一个主要问题是它的价格波动过大。比特币的这个特性对于“货币”投机者来说很棒，但同样的事情对那些只是希望买汽油、买日用百货时图个方便的人来说就是灾难了。甚至对商家来说也是一样，即使买卖双方在交易时都采用实时汇兑技术。想象一下，如果电脑只能在一半时间内处于开启状态，早期的因特网公司吸引顾客将会有多么困难【“糟糕，貌似我今天用不了美国在线（AOL）了”】。

    比特币要减少价格波动，就需要一个流动性市场，让包括机构和政府在内的大型投资者都能舒服地参与其中。这个市场一要有法律监管，二要设在美国境内（最有可能是在纽约）。不仅仅是因为流动性市场能产生流动资产，还因为它能带来信誉，从而让比特币被人们所采用。

    因此，意料之中的是，笔者听说一些风险投资家已经开始探索法律管制下的美国与加密货币兑换的投资机会。我还知道至少有一家风投公司支持的企业正在展开严肃的会谈，希望借助在这方面有所进展。

    不过笔者要更进一步说明：就算风投公司最后认为这样单独投资的风险太大，为了他们（无论是过去已经进行的，还是未来希望进行的）其他的比特币投资，他们仍然会亏本推动这个进程。毕竟，如果没有先建立好自己可靠的支付体系，就不可能打破现有的支付格局。（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正

    Venture capitalists have invested around $100 million into Bitcoin-related startups, believing that the cryptocurrency will eventually take a major bite out of the global payments industry. Everything from digital wallets to merchant acceptance solutions. But if they don't help create a U.S. exchange, it all might be for naught.

    Any one of these investors will tell you that widespread adoption is key to the success of their various startups. Venture capitalist Ben Horowitz, for example, recently bet blogger Felix Salmon that more than 10% of NPR listeners will have used Bitcoin to buy something within the next five years. Horowitz made the bet not only because he believes he'll win, but also because he needs to win (Andreessen Horowitz so far has invested nearly $50 million into the space).

    A major barrier to Bitcoin adoption right now, however, is price volatility. The same thing that makes Bitcoin great for "currency" speculators is the exact same thing that makes it a nightmare for someone who just wants to have a more convenient (and possibly cheaper) way to buy gas or groceries. Same goes for merchants, even if they use instant conversion technologies on both ends of a transaction. Imagine how hard it would have been for early Internet companies to get users if PCs only turned on 50% of the time ("oops, guess I can't use AOL today").

    To reduce volatility, Bitcoin requires a liquid market where large investors -- including institutions and governments -- are comfortable participating. Regulated, and based in the U.S. (most likely in New York). Not only does liquidity beget liquidity, but it also begets reliability which begets adoption.

    Not surprisingly, I've heard that several venture capitalists already are exploring the investment case for a regulated U.S. cryptocurrency exchange. And I know of at least one VC-backed company that is in serious talks to move forward this something like this, likely via a "seat" model.

    But I'll go a step further: Even if VCs ultimately deem such an investment too risky as a standalone, they still should proceed as a sort of loss leader for their other Bitcoin investments (past and future). You can't destroy the payment rails without first creating your own reliable infrastructure.