刺激经济:三个政府,一个思路
美国联邦政府2009年推出的经济刺激方案是否有效?值此方案推出五周年之际,两党的争论如火如荼,但注定不会有什么结果。如果我们将这些争论放到一边,留意一下近期其他的一些报道,或许能了解到一些有用的信息,看清到底什么才能真正推动经济发展。 华盛顿正在进行的争论没有意义,哪一方都不会做出让步。共和党人说,刺激方案(包括政府支出和减税)显然不起作用,实施满五年后就业的美国人数量比刺激政策实施前还要低。民主党人说,政策效果显而易见,美国GDP的恢复速度快于其他很多同一时期陷入衰退的经济体。哪一方都不肯承认对方的说法哪怕有一丁点的道理。 值得一提的是,另外三个政府也面临同样的挑战——正在努力刺激亟需帮助的经济。迄今为止,它们做得还不错: “法国必须恢复经济力,一刻也不能等,”法国总统弗朗西斯•奥朗德上个月曾经这样表示。这是自然。法国经济已经在欧洲垫底,表现如此之差,导致奥朗德已成为二战以来支持率最低的法国总统。不过,这位曾在总统竞选中承诺对百万富翁加税的社会党人如今正在提议为企业减税300亿欧元。他力称,这个举措将推动法国经济增长。 “什么都比不过零税率,”纽约州州长安德鲁•库莫上月提议减税20亿美元为该州吸引和留住更多企业。一个两党委员会此前建议将制造企业的税率从目前的5.9%减半。但为什么只是减半?身为共和党人的库莫希望完全取消这项税,也就是降到不能再降的零,至少是针对纽约市以北的制造企业,因为近年来,这些企业一直在撤离纽约州。 “我们认为,近几十年来征收较高且不断增长的个人和企业税率,导致了人口流失,税基萎缩以及总体经济下滑。”底特律刚刚公布的退出破产保护计划也有这样的表述。这个计划在谈到出路时同样直率:“我们相信,降低一些所得税和物业税税率 ...对于促进就业增长和扩大总税基至关重要。”面对破产后处处需要钱的窘境,底特律的领导人们希望的是减税,而不是加税。 目的显而易见,经验再明确不过。当最终不得不面对无可逃避的经济困境时,政府领导人们意识到企业不是挖之不尽的矿坑,而是需要培育的、活生生的植物。但愿他们能更加经常地意识到这一点,而不是只有等到大难临头的时候才想起来。(财富中文网)
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French president François Hollande of the Socialist Party is now pushing a tax cut for business. The flourishing debate over the effectiveness of Washington's 2009 stimulus package, occasioned by the law's fifth anniversary, will not accomplish a single thing. But if we keep it in mind as we notice a few other news stories playing out just now, we might learn something useful about what really gets an economy going. The debate as conducted in Washington is pointless because neither side will budge from its predictable position. Republicans say the stimulus -- a mix of government spending and tax cuts -- obviously didn't work because, after five years, fewer Americans are employed than were employed when the stimulus was enacted. Democrats say it obviously worked because GDP recovered faster in the U.S. than it did in many other economies that were in recession at the same time. Neither side will ever acknowledge that the other might have a point. What's actually useful is to note what three other governments that are up against the same challenge -- trying to stimulate an economy that badly needs help -- are doing right now: "It is imperative that France restores the power of its economy. There is no time to lose," said President François Hollande last month. That's for sure. France's economy is one of Europe's weakest, performing so badly that Hollande's approval rating is the lowest of any French president's since World War II. But this Socialist who campaigned for office promising tax increases on millionaires now proposes a 30-billion-euro tax cut for business. That, he argues forcefully, is what will make the economy grow. "You can't beat zero," said New York Governor Andrew Cuomo last month, proposing $2 billion of tax relief in an attempt to attract and keep more business in the state. A bipartisan commission had recommended cutting the tax rate on manufacturers, currently 5.9%, by about half. But why take half measures? Cuomo, a Democrat, wants to eliminate the tax entirely -- that is, make it an unbeatable zero -- at least for manufacturers north of New York City, who have been leaving the state for years. "The City believes that the imposition of comparatively high and ever-increasing individual and corporate tax rates, in recent decades, has contributed to the City's population loss, dwindling tax base, and overall economic decline." So states Detroit's just-released plan for exiting bankruptcy. The plan is equally blunt about the solution: "The City believes that lowering selected income and property tax rates ... is critical to ... fostering job growth and expanding the overall tax base." Faced with the dollars-and-cents demands of bankruptcy, Detroit's leaders want to tax less, not more. The theme is obvious, and the lesson is clear. When finally forced to confront inescapable economic trouble, government leaders realize that business is not a pit to be mined but a living plant to be nurtured. If only they could more often realize it before calamity looms. |
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