苹果首席执行官蒂姆•库克上周二向分析师们表示：“iPad的销量达到了我们的预期，但我们知道很多人对iPad的期望要更高。”

    这不过是客套话，库克真正想说的是，他知道现在是怎么回事，即便大多数苹果分析师和商业媒体一无所知。

    （素来喜欢对苹果落井下石的新闻网站Business Insider，接连发表头条文章“苹果……iPad销量再次不佳”以及“只有IBM能提振苹果iPad销量”。）

    上周三上午，华尔街缓过神来了。对于iPad销量为何似乎已经见顶，数位分析师对客户给出了自己的解释。其中，投资银行Piper Jaffray的吉恩•蒙斯特解释如下：

    在标题为“iPad怎么了？”的段落中，蒙斯特写道：“我们认为iPad销量下滑有三个原因。”

    • 首先，我们认为，平板电脑市场出货量增长主要来自低端市场，而iPad定价较高。

    • 其次，我们认为，苹果在前四年里卖出2.25亿部iPad，已占据了容易攻克的那部分高端平板电脑市场。蒂姆•库克在收益电话会议上表示，前四年iPad的销量超出了他们的预期，这或许表明高端市场正趋于饱和。

    • 再次，鉴于iPad没有补贴，其替换周期往往比iPhone要长。

    蒙斯特称，IBM计划销售并为企业级iPad提供服务有可能扭转局面。但他认为，情况在好转之前可能会变得更糟，特别是如果苹果在今秋发布5.5英寸的大屏iPhone，很可能会与iPad抢夺市场。

    史蒂夫•乔布斯有句名言：“如果你自己不革自己的命，别人会动手革你的命。”鉴于iPhone的利润率比iPad高，iPhone抢占iPad的市场估计是乔布斯乐见的事。

    更新：分析师贾恩•道森称，iPad业务每年带来的营收约为300亿美元，比麦当劳（McDonald’s）或时代华纳（Time Warner）公司全年的营收都高。

    科技媒体GigaOm的凯文•托福尔在《iPad销量放缓为何没有令苹果惊讶》一文中写道：“抱歉，我不会为苹果营收300亿美元的iPad销量放缓哭泣。”（财富中文网）

    译者：项航

    “iPad sales met our expectations,” Tim Cook told analysts Tuesday, “but we realize they didn’t meet many of yours.”

    That’s a polite way of saying that he knew what was going on, even if most Apple analysts and much of the business press were clueless.

    (Business Insider, always happy to stick a knife in Apple and twist it, ran back-to back-headlines: “Apple … Whiffed On iPad Sales Again” and “Only IBM Can Revive Apple’s iPad Sales.”)

    By Wednesday morning, Wall Street had come around. Several analysts offered clients their own explanation for why iPad sales seem to have peaked. Here’s Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster:

    “We think there are three reasons for the declines in iPad,” he wrote in a paragraph headed “What’s wrong with the iPad?”

    • First, we believe that the majority of tablet market unit growth is coming from the lower end of the market and iPads are priced higher.

    • Second, we believe the low hanging fruit in the high-end tablet market has been captured with Apple selling 225 million iPads over the first four years. Tim Cook commented on the earnings call that the adoption of the iPad over the first four years has been better than they were expecting, perhaps suggesting the high end is becoming saturated.

    • Lastly, given iPads are not subsidized, the replacement cycles tend to be longer compared to an iPhone.

    IBM’s plan to sell and service enterprise iPads could turn things around, Munster suggests. But he thinks they might get worse before they get better, especially if Apple releases an iPhone this fall with 5.5-inch diagonal screen — big enough to cannibalize iPad sales.

    Steve Jobs famously said, “If you don’t cannibalize yourself, someone else will.” And because iPhone profit margins are better than the iPad’s, that’s the kind of cannibalization Jobs would have loved..

    UPDATE: According to Jan Dawson, the iPad is generating revenues at a rate of about $30 billion a year, bigger than McDonald’s or Time Warner.

    “Excuse me,” writes GigaOm’s Kevin Tofel in Why slowing iPad sales didn’t surprise Apple, “if I don’t shed any tears for Apple’s $30 billion iPad problem.”