卡尔•伊坎在长达4,200字的《致蒂姆•库克的一封信》中，解释了他为什么给苹果（Apple）估出了目前整个华尔街最高的目标股价——几乎是当下股价的两倍。尽管你得耐着性子读完大段的甜言蜜语、谄媚讨好、产品评估和毫不害臊的自我夸耀之后，才能了解到这一点。

    他的论述非常跳跃——他喜欢比较当下和预期的市盈率（P/E）——不过其他人都可以看看他的计算方法：（引用如下）

    • 在经过净现金值调整后，根据我们对苹果2015年的每股收益预期，公司股票目前的市盈率（股价与每股收益之间的比值）只有8倍，远远低于大盘指数的整体水平——根据市场对2015年的平局预期，标普500指数目前的市盈率达到15倍。相较于标普500指数的缓慢增长，我们预计苹果的每股收益将在2016财年和2017财年分别上涨30%。

    对2016和2017财年的增长预期让我们有充分的理由来使用基于2015年预期值19倍的市盈率来估算苹果股价，综合净现金值考虑之后可以得到苹果目前的合理股价应该达到203美元。The literary device of a “letter” to Cook breaks down pretty quickly. Apple’s CEO doesn’t need to be told how great Apple’s products are. Or how “flawed and fragmented” Google’s Android.

    从文学手法来说，这封致库克的公开信很快就跑题了。苹果的首席执行官不需要听伊坎再唠叨一遍苹果的产品有多么优秀，或是谷歌（Google）安卓系统的生态环境有多么“破碎支离”。

    同样无甚逻辑的，是他对苹果董事会提出的大批回购股票的要求。

    根据伊坎所述，在自身利益的驱使下，他很快就会敦促投资公司把钱投入苹果。不过如果这是不可避免的，苹果为何还要扩大已经是公司历史上最大的股票回购规模？

    所以，这并不是一份给蒂姆•库克的信，而是一封给投资者的信，告诉他们要尽快购买苹果的股票。

    而且，这是在苹果股价上涨前的提前邀功。（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正

    You have to wade through thick paragraphs of wheedling, flattery, product assessment and unabashed self-aggrandizement to get there, but buried in Carl Icahn’s rambling 4,200-word “letter to Tim Cook” is his justification for the highest Apple price target on Wall Street — nearly twice the current consensus.

    His argument takes some wild leaps — he likes to compare P/Es in the hand with P/Es in the bush — but the math is there for anyone to see: (I quote)

    • Apple, adjusting for net cash, currently sells at a P/E (price to earnings per share ratio) of only 8x our FY 2015 forecast, a significantly lower P/E than a broad market index, the S&P 500, which trades today at a P/E of 15x FY 2015 consensus.

    • In contrast to the S&P 500’s slower growth, we expect Apple to grow its EPS by 30% in each of FY 2016 and FY 2017.

    • Our forecasted growth for FY 2016 and FY 2017 more than adequately justifies using a P/E multiple of 19x our FY 2015 forecast, which along with net cash values Apple at $203 per share today.

    .

    The literary device of a “letter” to Cook breaks down pretty quickly. Apple’s CEO doesn’t need to be told how great Apple’s products are. Or how “flawed and fragmented” Google’s Android.

    What also breaks down is the logic of his pitch to Apple’s board of directors for a massive tender offer to repurchase shares.

    According to Icahn, self interest will soon force mutual funds to pour money back into Apple. But if that’s inevitable, why would the company need to enlarge what is already the largest share buyback in the history of capitalism?

    No, this isn’t a letter to Tim Cook at all. It’s a letter to investors, telling them to buy Apple before it’s too late.

    And taking credit in advance for any gains in Apple’s stock price.