德国维持繁荣必须保住欧元

德国离不开疲弱的成员国

    之所以出现这样的局面可能是因为一个人们不愿触及的真相：德国人从欧元受益颇多——欧元让他们坐享汇率人为低估优势。通常人们都不愿接受弱势货币——它会让海外度假活动等变得更为昂贵。但对于德国而言，弱势货币是通往经济繁荣不可或缺的一张船票。德国退出欧元无异于搬起石头砸自己的脚。

    德国拥有优厚的社会保障、相对较高的工资，以及仅有8,000万的人口，同时也是全球第二大出口国。欧元在这其中扮演了重要角色。自从1999年德国采用欧元以来，德国出口额已经翻了一倍还多，从约4,690亿欧元升至2010年的1万多亿欧元。这样的增速是欧元区其他国家的两倍。虽然德国人的东西质量确实不错，但他们能以有竞争力的价格出口这么多商品是因为他们的货币相对便宜。

    德国的出口引擎左右开弓。首先，它扩大了对非欧元区国家的出口。因为如果保持其他条件不变，实际的欧元汇率要低于德国继续沿用马克时的汇率。这是因为欧元覆盖17个国家，期中大部分国家经济实力较弱，拉低了欧元相对于美元和英镑的汇率。中国为保出口而人为压低汇率已饱受诟病。德国却不必如此——它只需坐下来，看着另一个欧元区弱国陷入危机，它的出口在世界舞台上的竞争力就会得到提高。

    我们可以看看德国最新的出口数据。虽然欧元区仍陷于危机之中，虽然整个地区看来又可能进入一轮衰退，9月份德国出口较前月反而增长了近1%至913亿欧元，达到有数据记录以来的最高水平。8月份，危机恶化时，出口较前月增长0.2%。另一方面，9月份德国进口却减少0.8%，高涨的经常项目顺差继续膨胀。通常，这样的情况会推动德国货币升值，但由于南欧危机重重，欧元贬值，德国出口甚至更有竞争力了。

    其次，弱势欧元给了德国人一个更大的商品销售市场。德国约2/3的出口面向欧元区成员国——只是欧元区的17个成员国，不是欧盟自由贸易区的35个成员国。单一货币使得交易更加简单，因为它消除了汇率风险。德国汇率低估意味着西班牙、希腊等经济较弱的国家汇率高估，让这些国家更能买得起德国商品。因此，难怪德国汽车、德国白色家电、德国电子产品和德国机械设备主导了欧元区市场。

    要论共同点，希腊与中东邻国的共同点可能远多于它与欧元区伙伴国的共同点，它加入欧元区之初就已经埋下了祸根。新的信贷额度让希腊民众和政府开始了花钱如流水的日子。关于希腊官僚机构的高工资已经是老生常谈。这是事实，但这些只是过去十年这个国家所欠巨额债务的一部分。这个国家还新修了大量道路、机场、以及地铁系统，并为军队采购了最先进的武器。这些项目的背后大多是德国公司。

Germany relies on the weakest members

    It's probably because of a truth that no one likes to talk about: Germans have benefitted greatly from the euro -- it's given them an artificially weak currency. Normally, one would hate to be paid in a weak currency -- among other things, it makes their vacations abroad more expensive. But for Germany, a weak currency has been its ticket to prosperity. If the Germans would leave the euro, they would actually be shooting themselves in the foot.

    Consider that Germany, which has a generous social safety net, relatively high wages and just 80 million people, is the world's second-largest exporting country. The euro has played a significant part in this. German exports have more than doubled since they went on the euro in 1999, going from around 469 billion euros to well over a trillion euros in 2010. The rate of growth was also twice as fast as other nations in the zone. While there is no doubt that the Germans make quality stuff, the reason they are able to export so much at competitive price points is because they are operating with a relatively cheap currency.

    Germany's export engine works two ways. First, it exports more to non-eurozone countries because the exchange rate of the euro is weaker than it would be, all things being equal, if it had stayed on the Deutsche Mark. That's because the euro encompasses 17 nations, many of which are "weak," therefore bringing down the value of the currency relative to the dollar and the pound. China gets a lot of flak for artificially manipulating its currency to maintain its exports. Germany doesn't have to do that – all it needs to do is sit back and watch another weak eurozone nation go down in flames and its exports get more competitive on the world stage.

    Take the latest export data out of Germany. Even though the eurozone is in crisis and the region looks to be headed for another recession, German exports in September rose nearly 1% from the previous month to 91.3 billion euros, which is the highest level since records began. In August, when the crisis hit overdrive, exports were up 0.2% from the previous month. Meanwhile, imports into Germany fell 0.8% for September, increasing the nations burgeoning current account surplus. Normally that would cause Germany's currency to strengthen, but since there was trouble down south, the euro weakened, making German exports even more competitive.

    The second way the euro helps Germany is that it has given them a much larger market to dump their goods. Around two-thirds of German exports go to members of the eurozone – that's just the 17 members part of the common currency, not the 35 that are part of the European Union's free trade area. The euro makes business much simpler as it eliminates foreign exchange risk. An artificially low euro in Germany means an artificially high euro in weaker countries like Spain and Greece. That means those countries can afford to buy German goods. It's therefore no wonder why German cars, white goods, electronics and machinery dominate the eurozone.

    In Greece, a country that arguably shares much more in common with its Middle Eastern neighbors than its eurozone partners, being on the common currency has been a bit of a curse. With access to new credit lines, the Greek populace and its government went on a spending spree. Much has been discussed about how the Greek bureaucracy paid itself lavish wages. While true, that is just part of the massive sovereign debt bill the country rang up in the past decade. The country also paved lots of roads, constructed new airports, tunneled new subway systems and procured state-of-the-art weapons for its military. Behind most of these projects were German companies.