德国降级有迹可循

    信用评级下调风暴现在终于刮向了处在金字塔尖的国家。本周早些时候，穆迪（Moody's）将欧元区的优等生德国、荷兰和卢森堡列入了负面信用观察，认为这三个国家，特别是德国，很难不受欧洲大陆经济困境的影响。受此消息影响，德国国债收益率在周二交易中小幅上扬，周三继续走高，因为德国10年期国债拍卖对投资者的吸引力降到了异乎寻常的低谷。

    德国经济目前虽无大碍，但也谈不上健康。近几个月来把一些欧元区邻国拉下马的经济问题事实上同样也困扰着德国。但与邻国不同，德国在此次危机中并未倒下，甚至还实现了略微的经济繁荣，这要感谢德国强劲的出口以及审慎资本管家的声誉。但随着出口放缓，名声受损，德国看起来已经没有那么火热了。加上它承诺向欧元区救助计划提供的所有资金，德国不免看起来有些外强中干。

    德国在国家名声遭受到永久性伤害前，应当趁自己还有能力的时候，运用各种力量推动建设一个更紧密的欧元区。希望藉此德国能避免陷入压垮邻国的那种经济混乱，确保自己在欧元区金字塔体系中应有的地位。

    德国一直极大地受益于欧元，如果德国愿意掏钱让欧元活下去，也不难理解。这一共同货币消除了汇率风险，使德国能够更加容易地向欧元区伙伴国出口。与此同时，德国能增加向非欧元区国家的出口。假设其他条件不变，德国保留原有货币德国马克，其汇率肯定会高于当前的欧元汇率。

    整个欧元区危机期间，德国一直被指责没有显示出足够的领导力，任由这场危机不断延续，拿不出一个持续的解决方案。但一直到最近以前，这场迁延经年的危机看来在某种程度上还推动了德国经济增长。比如，由于欧元在市场中遭受的打压，德国对非欧元区国家的出口获得了有益的提振。它帮助德国在2011年创下了强劲的GDP增速（增长3.5%），同期欧元区兄弟国家大多都在遭受深度的经济衰退。

    但这些好事最终会到头。今年以来，德国官方的2012 年GDP增速预测已经数次向下修正，最新预计将显著低于1%。这种情况一部分与德国的出口有关。德国对欧元区伙伴国的依赖程度超出了最初的想象。今年5月，欧元走软帮助德国对非欧元区国家的贸易同比增长了3.4%，但欧洲持续经济衰退将德国与其他16个欧元区成员国的贸易拉低了2.3%。由于欧元区贸易占德国出口的三分之二，德国对非欧元区的出口增长不足以弥补欧元区内部贸易的下降。

    与此同时，本周发布的最新数据似乎也印证，德国的出口引擎已经熄火。7月份，对德国制造的新产品的需求下降到了2009年5月以来的最低点。7月份德国采购经理人综合指数也因此被推低至47.3，为2009年6月以来最低。采购经理人指数低于50，基本上表明经济已经处于收缩期，因此，德国很可能也处于经济零增长时期。

    鉴于德国越来越不可靠的财政状况，这种情形令人担忧。虽然德国经济规模庞大，但该国仍没有创造出足够的税收收入来满足支出需求。欧盟统计局（Eurostat）周一发布的报告称，今年第一季度德国的债务/GDP比率为81.6%，较前一季度增加了0.4%。虽然这一数据低于肆意挥霍的邻国（像希腊和法国分别达到了123%和89%），但仍远远高于欧元区成员国本应遵循60%的上限。另外，虽然德国成功地缩减了开支，但该国2011年财政赤字仍然高达258亿欧元。随着经济下滑，预算缺口预计还将进一步扩大。

    德国居高不下的债务/GDP比率或许还只是冰山一角。穆迪在将德国列入负面信用观察时指出，它关注德国由于此次欧债危机所增加的债务，包括向各种欧洲救助基金提供的数以十亿计的欧元。据估算，德国提供的与救助相关的现金和担保达到了约2,110亿欧元。如果把这个数字加在德国当前2万亿欧元的负债之上，德国的债务/GDP比率将跃升至近90%。另外，这些债务数字还没有包含德国理应承担的社会保障、医疗和养老支付义务面临的资金缺口。弗莱堡大学（Freiburg University）经济学教授伯德•哈夫拉辛称，把所有这些加起来，德国国家债务将再增5万亿欧元。这将使德国的债务/GDP比率飙升至令人瞠目的284%。

    The downgrade machine has finally worked its way up to the top. Moody's earlier this week placed the crème-de-la-crème of the troubled eurozone - Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg - on negative credit watch, noting that the three nations, especially Germany, were not immune to the economic troubles on the continent. German bond yields nudged slightly higher in trading on the news Tuesday, and went even higher on Wednesday as a German 10-year bond auction drew uncharacteristically weak demand from investors.

    Germany isn't in grave economic trouble at the moment, but it isn't the picture of economic health, either. It actually suffers from some of the same underlying economic problems that have caused its neighbors to keel over in recent months. Unlike its neighbors, Germany has been able to stay afloat, even somewhat prosper, during the crisis, thanks to its strong export machine and its reputation as a prudent steward of capital. But with its export machine slowing and its reputation now bruised, Germany isn't looking so hot. Add in all the money it has committed to the eurozone bailout and Germany starts to look somewhat weak.

    Before any permanent damage is done to its reputation, Germany should use its clout to push for a much closer eurozone now while it still can. This will shield it from experiencing the kind of economic dislocation that has crushed its neighbors. It will also ensure its rightful place at the top of the eurozone pyramid.

    Germany has benefitted greatly from the euro, so it makes sense that it would spend money to keep it alive. The currency eliminated exchange rate risk, making it much easier for Germany to export to its eurozone partners. At the same time, Germany, in particular, has also been able to increase exports to non-eurozone countries. The exchange rate of the euro is weaker than it would be, all things being equal, if Germany had kept its old currency, the Deutsche Mark.

    Germany has been criticized throughout the eurozone crisis for not showing enough leadership, by allowing the crisis to drag on and on without a lasting solution. But up until very recently it appeared that the prolonged crisis has in some ways helped Germany grow its economy. Its exports outside the eurozone for instance have received a healthy boost thanks to the hammering the euro has taken in the markets. This helped Germany record strong GDP growth in 2011 (up 3.5%) while its eurozone brethren were suffering in deep recession.

    But all good things eventually come to an end. Germany's estimated GDP growth rate for 2012 has been revised down several times throughout the year and is now expected to come in well below 1%. Part of that has to do with its export machine. It turns out that Germany needs its eurozone partners more than originally believed. For example, while the cheap euro helped Germany grow its trade with nations outside of the eurozone by 3.4% this past May, on an annual basis, the chronic recession in Europe pushed trade with the other 16-members of the eurozone down 2.3% during the same time period. Since inter-eurozone trade makes up two-thirds of German exports, the incremental benefits of exporting outside the eurozone are no longer covering the loss in trade from Europe.

    Meanwhile, new data out this week seems to confirm that Germany's export engine has stalled. The demand for new German manufactured goods fell in July to the lowest level since May 2009. That pushed the German composite purchasing manager's index down to 47.3 in July, the lowest level since June of 2009. A score below 50 in the PMI largely indicates that an economy is in contraction, so Germany could very well be experiencing no economic growth at all.

    This is concerning, given Germany's increasingly precarious fiscal situation. It turns out that while Germany does have a big economy, it doesn't generate enough tax revenue to cover its bills. Eurostat reported on Monday that Germany had a debt-to-GDP ratio of 81.6% in the first quarter of the year, which is up 0.4% from the previous quarter. While that is lower than that of its profligate neighbors, like Greece at 123% and France at 89%, it is still far higher than the 60% cap to which eurozone members are supposed to adhere. Furthermore, while Germany has been successfully cutting spending it still ran a budget deficit of 25.8 billion euros in 2011. As the economy contracts, that budget gap is projected to grow.

    But Germany's already high debt-to-GDP ratio may not be telling the whole story. In putting Germany on a negative credit watch, Moody's noted that it was concerned about the liabilities the country has taken on as a result of the crisis. Those liabilities are the billions of euros that have been supplied to the various EU bailout funds. It turns out that Germany is on the hook for an estimated 211 billion euros in cash and guarantees connected with the bailouts. If that number is added to Germany's current debt load of 2 trillion euros, the nation's debt-to-GDP ratio jumps to nearly 90%. In addition, the current debt number doesn't account for unfunded liabilities in social security, healthcare and pensions that the state is responsible in paying out. Adding that all up would tack on an additional 5 trillion euros to Germany's national debt, according to Bernd Raffelhueschen, an economics professor at Freiburg University. That would push Germany's debt-to-GDP ratio to a mind-blowing 284%.