黑石高管预言中国A股今年上涨20%

    7. 气候变化继续导致粮食减产，结果粮食与牲畜价格大幅上涨。随着生活水平的提高，发展中国家的粮食需求持续增加。越来越多投资者将注意力转移到大宗商品，将其视为投资机会，扩大对该类资产的配置。玉米价格上涨至8美元/蒲式耳，小麦价格上涨至9美元/蒲式耳，牛的价格上涨至1.5美元/磅。

    8. 虽然通胀仍较为温和，但随着各国央行继续使货币贬值，黄金价格已经达到每盎司1,900美元，金融市场危机重重。

    9. 日本经济仍毫无起色，日元对美元汇率跌至100比1。日经225指数（Nikke 225）延续从去年11月开始的大幅上扬势头。随着日本出口的好转，投资者对世界第三大经济体的股票恢复了信心，日经225指数将超过12,000点。

    10. 欧洲的结构性问题依然无解，从2012年开始的轻度衰退将继续。随着国力较弱的国家进入紧缩时期，各国内部的骚乱趋于平息。实践将证明，希腊减少政府开支浪费和提高偷税漏税国民纳税的政策非常成功。然而，受美国股市影响，欧洲股市将下跌10%。

    每年都会有多项预测无法入选十大预测之列，原因是我认为其重要程度不如上述预测，或其发生概率达不到“可能”的程度。以下为未入选前十的几项预测。

“落选预测”

    11. 2012年大多数时间均低于20点的VIX波动率指数激增33%，达到30点，给交易商带来了福音。标普500指数下跌，增加了市场波动性。

    12. 康涅狄格州纽顿市的惨案最终说服美国国会，必须采取必要措施进行枪支管制。第一步便是禁止平民购买自动武器，包括弹匣超过十发子弹的手枪，并加大了对所有枪支购买的背景调查。“买枪的难度不应低于租车”将成为一条口号。

    13. 由于无法通过提高收入所得税增加收入，沮丧的美国国会开始考虑其他途径。关于征收增值税和财产税的说法甚嚣尘上，而且支持这些观点的阵营似乎在慢慢扩大。

    14. 美国国会认为，基于高频算法和其他计算机化算法的交易方式将使个人投资者处于不利境地。为给狂热活动降温，避免“快闪跌市”和小故障的出现，美国将对回转交易征收交易费。

    15. 地球上的各种科技已经趋于饱和。半导体公司、软件提供商、社交媒体和个人计算机制造商的收入报告均不尽如人意，它们给出的预测也令人沮丧，进而导致整个市场开始下行。用户最终承认，当前的现状已经足够快，连接已经足够多，他们下载的“应用”过多，甚至连他们自己都不知道这些应用能用来做什么。但随着产品在海外的巨大成功，苹果（Apple）依然逆势上扬，股价超过700美元。

    维恩去年的预测准确度如何？点击查看2012年十大预测。

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    7. Climate change contributes to another year of crop failures, resulting in grain and livestock prices rising significantly. Demand for grains in developing economies continues to increase as the standard of living rises. More investors focus on commodities as an investment opportunity and increase their allocation to this asset class. Corn rises to $8.00 a bushel, wheat to $9.00 a bushel and cattle to $1.50 a pound.

    8. Although inflation remains tame, the price of gold reaches $1,900 an ounce as central bankers everywhere continue to debase their currencies and the financial markets prove treacherous.

    9. The Japanese economy remains lackluster and the yen declines to 100 against the dollar. The Nikkei 225 continues the strong advance that began in November and trades above 12,000 as exports improve and investors return to the stocks of the world's third largest economy.

    10. The structural problems of Europe remain largely unresolved and the mild recession that began there in 2012 continues. Civil unrest subsides as the weaker countries adjust to austerity. Greece proves successful in implementing policies that reduce wasteful government expenditures and raise revenues from citizens who had been evading taxes. European equities, however, decline 10% in sympathy with the U.S. market.

    Every year there are always a few Surprises that do not make the Ten because either I do not believe they are as relevant as those on the basic list or I am not comfortable with the idea that they are "probable." Below are several "also rans" which did not make the Ten Surprises.

"Also Rans"

    11. Having traded below 20 for most of 2012 the VIX Volatility Index surges 33% to 30, providing a bonanza for traders. The decline in the S&P 500 increases market volatility.

    12. The Newtown, Connecticut, massacre finally convinces Congress to do something about gun control. As a first step they ban future civilian purchases of automatic weapons, including handguns, with clips of more than ten rounds and require more extensive background checks on all gun purchases. "It should not be easier to buy a gun than rent a car" becomes a slogan.

    13. Frustrated by an inability to increase revenues through raising income taxes, Congress begins to consider different approaches. There is more talk of a value-added tax as well as a wealth tax, and these ideas appear to be slowly gathering momentum.

    14. Congress decides that high-frequency and other computerized algorithmic-based trading practices are putting the individual investor at a disadvantage. A transaction fee designed to slow down frenetic activity and protect against "flash crashes" and glitches is imposed on intra-day trades.

    15. The planet finds itself saturated with technology. Semiconductor companies, software providers, social media favorites and personal computer manufacturers all report disappointing earnings and provide discouraging guidance. They lead the overall market lower. Users finally agree the present state of the art is fast enough and connected enough, and that they have more "apps" than they know what to do with. Apple bucks the trend and trades above $700 as its products continue to enjoy enormous success abroad.

    How did Wien do last year? Check out his 2012 list here.