未来属于智能手机
点此放大，图片来源：Asymco
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最近，数码产业分析公司ComScore发布了2011年7月份美国智能手机数据。市场情报分析公司Asymco的贺拉斯•德迪欧的任务完成得一如既往的漂亮，他再次将这些数据转换成为一目了然而又内涵深刻的图表。 从德迪欧于上周四发布的三幅图表，我们可以看出以下三方面的内容： 1.智能手机未来的增长空间。 2.苹果（Apple）iPhone和谷歌（Google）Android排挤竞争对手的成度。 3.微软（Microsoft）重返智能手机舞台的重重困难。 我非常喜欢这些图表，因为它能给予你直观印象——美国手机市场究竟有多大？智能手机制造商究竟还有多少增长空间？ 在Asymco网站的主页上，读者可以找到另外两幅图表，就在德迪欧名为《第三大智能手机生态系统：胜算几何？》（The third smartphone ecosystem: What are the odds）的文章里。 第三大生态系统，当然非微软Windows Phone 7莫属。不少分析人士认为它能抢占上图天空位置蓝色部分（指功能手机市场——译注）的最大份额。 但德迪欧对此持怀疑态度。他在文中称： 过去一年，Android在美国获得了2,500万用户；iPhone获得了950万用户；黑莓（Blackberry）和微软则分别流失了320万和160万用户。其它平台则总计流失120万用户。 整个智能手机市场用户合计净增长290万。 从2010年10月开始，黑莓手机生产商RIM从用户持续净增长转为用户持续净流失。虽然Windows Phone在保住用户基数，避免用户流失方面做得不错，但其市场份额持续低于5%。（目前为4.7%，上个月为4.6%）。 让我们换个角度看看微软面临的艰难险阻，在美国市场，Android和iPhone的市场保有量目前分别为Windows Phone 7的7倍和5倍。如果一些分析师的预测成真，Windows Phone 7未来将成为美国最大的移动平台，那么微软必须面对12：1的巨大差距，而且这一差距看来还在不断扩大。 微软成功的几率非常低。 除了这些吸引眼球的图表，德迪欧在Asymco博客主持的讨论也非常棒，质量很高。到上周五早上，德迪欧的文章已获得62条评论。读者可以点击链接发表高见。 译者：项航 |
ComScore released its July 2011 U.S. smartphone data this week and as usual Asymco's Horace Dediu has done the best job of turning the numbers into striking -- and insightful -- graphics. On Thursday he released three charts that show: 1. The scale of the opportunity for further smartphone growth 2. The extent to which Apple's (AAPL) iPhone and Google's (GOOG) Android are squeezing out the competition 3. The challenge Microsoft (MSFT) faces as it tries to get back into the game I'm particularly fond of the chart at right because it gives you a sense of how large the U.S. cell phone market really is and how much room for growth it offers smartphone manufacturers. You can see the other two charts at the Asmyco entry Dediu has titled The third smartphone ecosystem: What are the odds? The third ecosystem, of course, is Microsoft's Windows Phone 7, which many analysts believe could capture the lion's share of the blue sky in the graph above. Dediu is skeptical. He writes: In the last 12 months, Android gained 25 million users in the US. iPhone gained 9.5 million while Blackberry lost 3.2 million and Microsoft lost 1.6 million. Other platforms had a net loss of 1.2 million. The total net gain of smartphones was about 29 million new users. RIM switched from being a consistent net gainer of users to a consistent net loser of users in October 2010. Windows Phone is showing signs of holding the line on user base erosion but share remains below 5% (now at 4.7% vs. 4.6% last month). To put the mountain-sized hurdle in perspective, Android now has 7 times more users in the US while iPhone has about 5 times more. To become the largest mobile platform in the US, as some analysts are predicting, Microsoft has a 12:1 disadvantage that looks to continue to grow. Those are some pretty tough odds. One of the great things about Dediu's Asymco blog, besides the eye-catching graphics, is the quality of the discussion he moderates. As of Friday morning, this post had generated 62 comments. You can add yours here. |
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