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专栏 - 苹果2_0

10张图告诉你华尔街缘何踩苹果而捧亚马逊

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年07月31日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
苹果公布了创纪录的季度销售业绩,但它的股价仅实现单日反弹。而亚马逊连续第三个季度出现亏损,消息传出,它的股价却创下历史新高。因为华尔街一贯的观点是,亚马逊前景无限,而苹果潜力有限。

    衡量两只股票的相对价值时,最简单、使用最广泛的一项指标是市盈率。去年11月,我们曾对比苹果(苹果)和亚马逊(Amazon)两家公司的市盈率。当时,苹果的追溯市盈率为13,而亚马逊为2,767。

    此后,我们未能再次对比两者的市盈率,因为亚马逊的追溯市盈率——借用动画人物巴斯光年的台词——已经趋向无穷大(或者如股价图的标示,追溯市盈率这个指标对亚马逊已经不再适用)。在此期间,苹果的市盈率随着其股价起伏,一直维持在10至11之间。

    亚马逊上周五公布了6月份这一季度的财报,报告显示亚马逊已经连续三个季度未能实现盈利。尽管业绩惨淡,亚马逊却受到华尔街热捧,股价也被推至历史高点,达到每股312.01美元。

    然而,苹果在三天前发布了创纪录的三季度销售业绩(虽然利润有所减少),但它的股价却仅仅有一天出现反弹。各位读者对此估计已经见怪不怪了。

    这是因为对华尔街而言,苹果和亚马逊的业务完全不同。正如Investor Village's AAPL Sanity论坛上的一位常客上周所言:

    “华尔街眼中的亚马逊是世界最大的(线上)全球零售商,增长空间几乎是无限的。而苹果在他们看来不过是一家增长空间有限的(手机)设备制造商,因为苹果完全仰仗自身不断创新的能力,以及击退竞争对手、控制极不稳定的供应链,同时扩大(最终会饱和的)市场能力。”

    为了强调华尔街到底有多青睐亚马逊,而讨厌苹果,读者“默克尔”发布了九张柱状图以及一张展示两家公司近八年销售额的图表,供各位参考。(财富中文网)

    译者:项航 

    In November, the last time we compared Apple's (AAPL) and Amazon's (AMZN) price-to-earnings ratios -- the simplest and most widely used metric to gauge the relative value of a pair of stocks -- Apple's trailing PE was 13 and Amazon's was 2,767.

    We haven't been able to repeat the exercise because while Apple PE has drifted with its stock price to between 10 and 11, Amazon's trailing PE has reached, as Buzz Lightyear might put it, infinity and beyond. (Or, as the stock charts politely have it, NA.)

    That's because Amazon, which reported its June earnings on Friday, hasn't turned a profit for three quarters in a row -- a performance that Wall Street rewarded by pushing its stock to an all-time-high of $312.01.

    It will come as no surprise to readers here that Apple, which posted record fiscal Q3 sales (but lower earnings) three days earlier, couldn't catch more than a one-day break on the stock market.

    That's because as far as Wall Street is concerned, Apple and Amazon are in completely different businesses. As a regular on Investor Village's AAPL Sanity board put it last week:

    "The Street sees Amazon as the world's biggest (online) global retailer with almost limitless growth. [It] sees Apple as a (mobile) device maker that because it is wholly dependent on its ability to innovate nonstop, expand its (ultimately saturated) markets while fighting off competition and controlling its very unstable supply chain, has limited growth."

    To underscore just how much Wall Street loves Amazon and hates Apple, the reader who posts as "Merckel" has submitted for your consideration nine bar graphs and a five-year sales chart:  

    上面的柱状图从左至右、从下依次对比了 苹果(蓝色柱状)和亚马逊(橙色柱状)两家公司的每股收益、资产收益率、股权收益、3-5年每股收益预计增长预测值、每股年度分红、每股现金及有价证券价值含量、推荐买入的分析师人数、2013年1-6月每股现金及有价证券含量、品牌价值等方面的情况,点击可放大图片。
图为2005年至2012年亚马逊与苹果销售额增长历史数据的对比图,橙色曲线为亚马逊,蓝色为苹果,统计单位为百万美元。

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