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专栏 - 苹果2_0

苹果能否挽救电视?

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年06月06日

苹果(Apple)公司内部流传着一个老笑话,那就是史蒂夫·乔布斯周围是一片“现实扭曲力场”:你离他太近的话,就会相信他所说的话。苹果的数百万用户中已经有不少成了该公司的“信徒”,而很多苹果投资者也赚得盆满钵满。不过,Elmer-DeWitt认为,在报道苹果公司时有点怀疑精神不是坏事。听他的应该没错。要知道,他自从1982年就开始报道苹果、观察史蒂夫·乔布斯经营该公司。
电视业传统的商业模式正在逐步破产,有志于颠覆电视业的苹果大有用武之地,不过,它要实现目标还需要完成很重要的工作。

    我们现在尚不清楚,苹果将如何处理电视业已经破产的商业模式。除非苹果打算建造一个全国性的无线网络,否则苹果打造的电视仍要受制于人,就像我们现在屈服于本地的垄断运营商一样,它们牢牢控制了我们的家庭互联网接入。除非有线运营商们通通被挤垮,决心接受妥协,否则他们的节目将继续充斥着大量广告。

    就像布拉吉描述的,电视业正在发生根本性的变化,不过还需一段时间,而整个过程将会充满艰辛。

    布拉吉写道:“有线运营商制作的一些内容仍会有人购买(因此依然会有人制作这类内容),不过,收取‘额外费用’、每个有线运营商都打上一大堆广告的做法行不通了。当然,这种变化已经在发生了,传统有线电视正在被Netflix、iTunes和所谓超级有线电视商所取代 【例如美国国家广播环球公司(NBC Universal)、时代华纳(Time Warner)】。现在有线电视业务利润依然丰厚,因此最开始,这种变化意义不大。不过随着时间推移,情况终将改变。无法获利的有线电视商将被盈利能力强的同行收购。境况不佳的节目和薪酬过高的从业人员将被扫地出门。数钱数到手抽筋的经理们也会下岗。总体制作成本将会下降。场地、人员、新闻采编等都将重新整合。有线电视业曾经丰厚的利润会被通通挤出来。”

    译者:项航

    What's not clear is what Apple is going to do about television's broken business models. Unless the company plans to build a nationwide wireless network, Apple's version of television is going to be as dependent as we are today on the local monopolies that have wired our homes for broadband. And until the networks have been brought to their knees and are ready deal, their programming is going to be riddled with ads.

    As Blodget describes it, fundamental changes are underway, but they're going to take time, and they're going to be painful:

    "Some of the content produced by networks will still be consumed (and, therefore, produced)," he writes, "but the idea of getting "affiliate fees" and selling advertising for each of dozens of branded networks seems absurd. This change is already occurring, of course: Traditional networks are being replaced by Netflix, iTunes, and uber-networks like 'NBC Universal' and 'Time Warner.' There is so much money in the network business right now that, initially, this shift won't mean much. Over time, however, it will. Unprofitable networks will be merged with profitable ones. Unprofitable shows and overpaid talent will be cut. Overpaid managers will get fired. Production costs, on aggregate, will drop. Sets, crews, newsgathering, etc. will be consolidated. The fat will get squeezed out of the system."

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