睡梦中，每个人都能找出10条理由来证明2013年美国企业和美国经济将处于困境。我也能。但一味唱衰经济并不是什么好习惯；错过经济发展高峰至少和错过经济低谷同样危险。那就让我们往好处想想，想象一幅还没有任何人提到过的美好图画。这种情况可能出现吗？我无从回答。那它看上去靠谱吗？绝对有戏。假设到2013年底美国经济增长率达到4%，个人收入增多，失业率也处于较低水平，那么促成这一局面的因素将包括以下这些：

    石油和天然气行业改革对整体经济的有利影响不断扩大。能源信息署刚刚公布的展望报告称，20年来一直呈下降状态的美国石油产量陡然上升，而且在2020年之前将保持增长态势。天然气产量的迅猛提升将至少持续30年。受此影响，工业已经开始复苏。陶氏化学（Dow）和三菱（Mitsubishi）等化工及塑料制造商正在美国各地新建工厂。而过去几年美国化工及塑料行业一直在减员，这样的转变让人甚为吃惊。机械及钢铁公司铁姆肯（Timken Co.）正在扩建俄亥俄州的石油天然气特种钢材冶炼厂。由于许多行业产出增多，铁路方面也在增加运力。最有利的一点是，大部分新产品都将用于出口。它将缩小美国的贸易逆差，创造就业并推动美国经济向前发展。

    尽管第112届国会堆积起来的火药味让议员们战战兢兢，但第113届国会最终在三个最为关键的方面采取了行动：修订税法——下调税率、堵住漏洞；让医改具有可持续性以及调整移民法以便吸引并留住世界上最顶尖和最有抱负的人才。

    成功连任后，奥巴马总统不再羡慕前任比尔•克林顿在国内外的响亮名声。他希望作为一名政治家而名垂青史，而不是一名革新派英雄。他支持修订税法，强调这是公平之举；他说医保改革不是压缩而是节约；他协商推动非法移民合法化的进程，以作为移民政策改革的一部分。在两党首脑簇拥之下签署重大法令的照片让奥巴马成了一名实干家，而非极左派斗士。

    《平价医疗法案》（The Affordable Care Act）的生效几乎没有遭遇任何阻力，原因是政府意识到如果在实施方面出现重大问题，经济就可能一蹶不振。在这项法案中，许多要求用人单位似乎都很难甚至无法做到。比如，企业提供的保险必须在员工的承受范围之内，而员工的承受能力则是按家庭收入的百分比来衡量，这个数字用人单位根本无从知晓。国税局（IRS）已经表示，企业可以暂时根据员工的年收入来计算其承受能力，而且不必为员工的被扶养赡养人提供平价医保。如果做出更多类似的解释，这项无比艰巨的工作对用人单位和工薪族来说就能变得容易一些。

    美国证监会（SEC）和其他监管部门终于不再为《多德-弗兰克法案》（Dodd-Frank Act）的规则制定工作寻找借口，它将扫清笼罩着金融市场的雾霭。律师事务所Davis Polk的最新统计显示，在按照该法案制定规则方面，证监会有60%的工作未能如期完成；需要颁布的规定中还有65%尚无定论。消除这个不确定因素将解放金融市场，而金融市场是美国经济中最有力的引擎之一。

    经济蒸蒸日上，就业水平开始上升。这会促使美国政府让极度延伸的失业救济政策回归常态。这种特别救济的时间长达99个星期，虽然这让很多人得到了帮助，但也因为鼓励坐享其成而干扰了就业市场，只是从政治角度而言这样的观点并不正确。失业救济回复正常水平又将让美国经济的另一大动力——灵活的就业市场得到解放。

    In your sleep you can name 10 reasons 2013 will be lousy for business and the economy. So can I. But analyzing only the downside is a bad habit; missing a boom is at least as dangerous as missing a bust. So let's imagine the good-news scenario that absolutely no one is talking about. Is it likely? I dunno. Plausible? Absolutely. Here's what gets us to a 4% growth rate, rising incomes, and low unemployment by year-end:

    The revolution in American oil and gasincreasingly spreads its benefits through the economy. Our crude-oil production, after declining for the past 20 years, is suddenly rocketing and will keep doing so for the rest of the decade, says the Energy Information Administration's just-released outlook. Natural-gas production will boom for at least the next three decades. A resulting industrial renaissance is already under way. Chemical and plastics makers -- Dow (DOW), Mitsubishi, and others -- are building new plants around the country, a stunning turnaround for an industry that has been shutting U.S. plants for years. The Timken Co. (TKR) is expanding a mill in Ohio to make specialty steels for the oil and gas industry. Railroads are adding cars to haul the rising output of many industries. Best of all, much of the new production will be exported -- shrinking our trade deficit and bringing jobs and GDP growth to the U.S.

    The 113th Congress, spooked by the loathing rightly heaped on the 112th, finally acts on its three most important priorities: reforming the tax code by lowering rates and closing loopholes, making Medicare sustainable, and fixing immigration laws to attract and keep the world's best and most ambitious.

    President Obama, finished with running for office and envying Bill Clinton's extraordinary stature domestically and globally, decides to go for a statesman legacy rather than a progressive-hero legacy. He gets behind tax reform by emphasizing its fairness; stresses that Medicare isn't being cut but saved; and negotiates a procedure for legalizing illegals as part of immigration reform. Photos of him signing landmark legislation with leaders of both parties behind him build his image as a pragmatic doer rather than a far-left class warrior.

    The Affordable Care Act takes effect mostly glitch-free as the administration realizes that major implementation problems could tank the economy. The law is filled with requirements that seem difficult or impossible for employers to meet; for example, employers must offer "affordable" insurance to workers, but affordability is defined as a percentage of an employee's household income, which employers have no way of knowing. The IRS has announced that for now employers can base calculations on employees' W-2 income and needn't offer affordable insurance for workers' dependents. More such lenient interpretations will ease a hellacious process for employers and workers.

    The SEC and other regulators finally stop making excuses on Dodd-Frank rulemaking, clearing the fog that sits over financial markets. The administration has missed 60% of the rulemaking deadlines imposed by the law, says the latest tally by the Davis Polk law firm; 65% of the total required rulemakings still haven't been finalized. Reducing that uncertainty will liberate one of America's greatest economic strengths, its capital markets.

    The economy builds steam, and hiring picks up. In response, Washington lets hyperextended unemployment benefits revert to normal duration. Those special 99-week benefits, while helpful to many, also distort labor markets by encouraging nonwork, though it's politically incorrect to say so. Getting back to normal frees up another of our greatest strengths, our flexible labor markets.