摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）最近换人了。

    长期追踪苹果（Apple）的分析师马克•莫斯科维茨离职了。顶替他位置的人是电信分析师罗德•哈尔，他认为，他的想法价值630亿美元。

    他在上周二写给客户的第一封投资报告中称，苹果基本上掌控了售价超过1,000美元手提电脑的市场。据估算，苹果在北美市场的占有率为68%，在西欧市场的占有率为49%，而在全球市场的占有率为36%。

    但据哈尔称，手提电脑的甜点（上表红色框中部分）恰好处于1000美元价格之下：2013年售价为500至1,000美元的手提电脑发货量近1亿部，约占当年市场总发货量的55%。

    哈尔认为，只要给iPad配上键盘，苹果每年就有可能从这个市场赚取最高630亿美元的收入。他将此称为“iAnywhere”解决方案。

    “随着一些iPad用户用这种设备代替手提电脑，我们相信，大多数人将iPad用作是手提电脑或桌面电脑的补充设备。如果iAnywhere解决方案能够让用户将iPad既能用作个人电脑，也能作为平板电脑灵活使用，我们认为，很多人将选择只购买一个设备。我们还认为，当前从经销商处购买戴尔（Dell）等低价电脑的很多用户将转而选择使用苹果产品。

    哈尔估计，惠普（Hewlett-Packard）是500-1,000美元电脑甜点区间的重要生产商，随后依次为联想（Lenovo） (16%)、戴尔(14%)、华硕（ASUS）(12%)和宏碁（Acer） (10%)。

    哈尔没有提到的一家硬件制造商是微软（Microsoft）。鉴于微软出售Surface系列平板电脑，这个遗漏很奇怪，因为这款产品听起来非常像他建议苹果制造的那种产品。自2013年夏季推出之后，微软的Surface平板电脑表现喜忧参半。据GeekWire报道称，截至3013年6月30日，Surface销售总收入达8.53亿美元。这个数额几乎等同于微软公司在2013年7月对未售出Surface RT电脑进行的 减记数额9亿美元。 (财富中文网)

    There's been a changing of the guard at J.P. Morgan.

    Long-time Apple (AAPL) analyst Mark Moskowitz is out. Taking his place is telecom analyst Rod Hall, who brings with him what he believes is a $63-billion idea.

    Apple, he wrote in an inaugural note to clients Tuesday, basically owns the market for laptops priced above $1,000. It's got an estimated 68% market share of the North American market, a 49% share in Western Europe and a 36% share globally.

    But according to Hall, the sweet spot for laptops, as indicated by red rectangle in the attached chart, sits just below that price point: In the $500-to-$1,000 range, into which nearly 100 million laptops -- 55% of the total market -- shipped in 2013.

    Apple could make as much as a $63 billion a year in that market, Hall argues, if it would just put a keyboard on the iPad. He calls it Apple's "iAnywhere" solution.

    "While some iPad users are replacing laptops with the device we believe that most use the iPad as a supplemental device to either a laptop or desktop PC. If iAnywhere allowed these users to flexibly use an iPad as both a PC and a Tablet we believe that many would elect to simply own one device. We also believe that many users currently purchasing lower priced laptops from vendors like Dell would choose to switch to Apple."

    Hewlett-Packard is the big player in the $500-$1,000 sweet spot, Hall estimates, followed by Lenovo (16%), Dell (14%), ASUS (12%) and Acer (10%).

    One hardware manufacturer Hall doesn't mention is Microsoft (MSFT) -- a curious omission considering that Microsoft sells a family of machines -- the Surfaces -- that sounds a lot like the one he's suggesting Apple make. Since they were introduced in the summer of 2013, Microsoft's Surface hybrids have met with mixed success. According to GeekWire, total Surface revenue reached $853 million on June 30, 2013. That's almost as much as the $900 million write-downthe company took in July 2013 for unsold Surface RTs.